652
FXUS64 KFWD 071013
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
513 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Isolated showers have been able to form along a frontal boundary
in Oklahoma and move southeast over the last hour. Have introduced
10% isolated showers in our northeastern counties this morning to
account for their movement. However, a lack of moisture below the
mid level cloud deck should keep most of the rain from reaching
the ground.

Otherwise, no major changes were made to the previous forecast and
the discussion below remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

Expect a much anticipated quiet end to the week across North and
Central Texas as upper level ridging builds in atop the Southern
Plains. While a shortwave transiting around the periphery of the
ridge provided enough large-scale lift along a stalled front across
Oklahoma to produce a few storms this evening, the approaching
subsident airmass has kept them from moving closer to our
northwestern counties. As such, all of our 46 counties will remain
dry to start the weekend.

This afternoon will feature warm high temperatures in the 90s,
but with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, heat index values
will peak between ~96-102, just below Heat Advisory range.
Meanwhile, the surface ridge will slide further east, tightening
the surface pressure gradient and increasing winds to around 10-15
mph across the western half of the region. The slight uptick in
winds will help to offset the summer heat somewhat, making for a
relatively nice day.

While a cut-off low near Baja Mexico swinging up towards the Desert
Southwest will shift the upper ridge center a bit eastward on
Saturday, North and Central Texas will still be under its influence.
In the presence of rain-free and mostly sunny conditions,
temperatures will be able to rise into the 90s once again. A
continued tightened surface pressure gradient will promote
increased wind speeds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph
through the first half of the weekend.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/
/Saturday Night through Thursday/

Mid level ridging will be shifting to the east by late Saturday
allowing southerly flow to tap into some better moisture over the
northwest Gulf. As it does, a weak shortwave will spread out of
northern Baja California and into West Texas on Sunday. Meanwhile,
a stronger disturbance will dig into the Midwest out of the
Northern Plains and help send a cold front into North Texas by
Sunday night. Strong instability will be in place across the
region during the day Sunday but convection will likely initially
develop well off to our north along the cold front across
Oklahoma. These showers and storms will spread southward during
the overnight hours, likely losing some of their intensity through
the night. It`s a little uncertain whether or not the cold front
will make it through North Texas, but the boundary should linger
somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River through the early part
of the week. With stronger ridging building back in across
northwest Mexico into the Four Corners region, we`ll remain
embedded within modest northwest flow through mid week and will
hang on to at least low storm chances into Wednesday. Temperatures
will be cooler Monday and Tuesday (low/mid 80s) with increased
cloud cover and precipitation chances. Beyond that, ridging will
build back into the Southern Plains and we`ll warm back into the
low/mid 90s.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Currently, VFR high-to-mid level clouds are moving south across
the region, but pose no impacts. Wind speeds continue to be
light, but overall southerly. An increase in speeds is expected
later this morning and afternoon to around 10 kts with occasional
gusts closer to 20 kts.

Winds will stay southerly through the next 24-30 hours. A greater
increase in wind speed to around 15 kts (with gusts to around 25
kts) is expected tomorrow afternoon.


Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  76  96  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                93  75  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               92  72  92  72  91 /  10   5   0   0   5
Denton              94  74  95  72  92 /   0   0   0   0  10
McKinney            93  74  94  72  91 /   5   0   0   0   5
Dallas              95  76  96  75  93 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             93  73  93  72  91 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           94  75  94  73  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              94  73  94  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       96  75  98  73  94 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$