754
FXUS64 KFWD 281005
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
505 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
MCS in full surge mode now along and north of the Hwy 380 corridor
and should continue surging into the DFW Metro and I-20 corridor
through daybreak. Two severe tstorm watches are in effect, 339 for
areas along/N of Hwy 380, then further S/SE through the rest of
the DFW Metroplex into Central Texas through 11 am. WIth little
confidence of temperatures after this first round of morning
convection moves through, have left every other forecast
parameters the same...including temperatures and winds.

Forecast updates will continue throughout the day, as a very
challenging forecast lies ahead the next 48-72 hours, as several
rounds of showers/storms, some severe and some with heavy rainfall
that may result in isolated instances of flash flooding Wed
through Fri.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Moving Into Mid Week/

The unsettled weather with periodic showers and storms, some
strong to severe and flooding coming back into the picture late
tonight and Wednesday. A weak surface boundary continues to be
draped along or just north of the I-20 corridor as earlier storms
and associated outflows have only solidified this boundary.
However, this lull in weather will be short-lived, as a 25-35 kt
southeasterly LLJ feeds into an elevated boundary up through 850mb
up across Northwest Texas and Southern OK through the overnight
hours. As the next shortwave rounds the dampened mid level ridge
to our west, another potential complex of storms will develop to
our north and west during the predawn hours. Models, though at
different magnitudes will bring this into North Texas around
sunrise and eventually Central Texas later in the morning or
afternoon. More severe weather will be possible as this storm
cluster ridges southeast along the instability gradient.
Initially, large hail will be the primary hazard with storms
potentially being semi-elevated, then as a cold pool evolves we
could see damaging winds as well. Just a few hours of removing
one severe storm watch, another severe tstorm watch will be
forthcoming and will go to around dawn/7 am, as elevated storms
are already going up over Southwest OK/Northwest TX. Easterly
winds will continue with a slightly cooler morning than
previously over the holiday weekend, with some upper 60s to lower
70s being the rule.

As the storm complex weakens some this afternoon across Central
Texas, numerous surface boundaries and temperature/instability
gradients from cloudy to partly cloudy skies will only play new
roles to act as focal points for another round of storms,
potentially an MCS this coming evening and overnight into
Wednesday morning. Models, especially CAMs are struggling as to be
expected in these active northwest flow environments and no
knowledge said mesoscale surface boundaries. Though surface
instability won`t be as extreme as recent days, plenty of shear
and lift, along with very steep lapse rates. Severe weather
hazards of large hail and damaging winds will once again be
impacts again, though we can start adding localized flooding at
this point. Despite the increasing flood threat, the uncertainties
noted above gives me low confidence on where/when for any Flood
Watch issuance. Later today, that should be more clear from this
early morning`s storms to hopefully the CAMs getting a better
handle with the MCS track tonight.

The MCS should be ongoing Wednesday morning as well, just the
"where" of the main track and worse weather conditions is
uncertain once again. This system should become more of a damaging
wind threat around this time, though isolated large hail will
remain possible on Wednesday. This system will weaken before
midday laying more surface boundaries from outflow with more
scattered development late in the day. The only saving grace from
the very active severe weather and locally heavy rainfall will be
much cooler high temperatures mostly in the 80s with lows
Wednesday morning mainly in the 60s.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

North and Central Texas will remain beneath the northeast flank
of a mid level ridge through this weekend, keeping an active
northwest flow pattern in place through the foreseeable future.
Wednesday`s convection will wind down in the late evening, but
additional storms may develop in the overnight hours into Thursday
morning as a ripple in the upstream flow aloft approaches. These
storms would likely be elevated above a capping inversion, and
would likely dissipate mid to late morning as boundary layer
mixing disrupts the low level jet. Some storms may be capable of
producing marginally severe hail before falling apart.

The ever-present stationary front and any lingering mesoscale
boundaries from morning convection will serve focus for additional
development Thursday late afternoon and evening as a stronger
shortwave approaches. Flow aloft will not be particularly strong
compared to recent days, but strong enough to produce around 40 kt
of effective shear. This will sufficiently support severe
thunderstorms when coupled with the 4000+ j/kg of ML CAPE, with
large hail the primary threat through the evening. Potential
upscale growth would shift the main threat to damaging wind gusts
during the overnight period before activity exits to the southeast
Friday morning. The tornado threat appears low at this time due
to unimpressive low level helicity values, but low LCLs and the
presence of surface boundaries may allow for a tornado or two.
Heavy rain and flooding from training thunderstorms will also be a
possibility.

A lull in thunderstorm activity looks possible on Friday in the
wake of the Thursday night system, though isolated redevelopment
cannot be ruled out if the atmosphere recovers Friday afternoon.
The dryline will become active again on Saturday as the next
shortwave trough approaches from the west. Convection will likely
initialize across the Big Country in the late afternoon, then
spread east across the western half of the forecast area Saturday
evening. It is a tad early to speculate on severe potential, but
time of year and the upper level pattern appear conducive for at
least a low-end severe weather concern.

Another lull on Sunday will be followed by additional storm
chances late Monday as the ridge retrogrades slightly and a
northwest flow MCS appears possible. Multiple rounds of rain and
storm chances should keep temperatures mostly in check for the
Thursday through Monday period. The ridge will expand northeast
around the midweek period of next week, increasing heights across
the region. Strengthening subsidence may shut off precipitation
chances and return the summer heat to the region towards the end
of the forecast period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/12z TAFs/

Outside of speeding up TSRA, some with GR/GS and very gusty
outflow winds by 1-2 hrs, will leave the rest of the TAF forecast
static with too many uncertainties for any kind of confidence or
wholesale changes.

05/

Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

Earlier storms have cooled the BL enough for some high MVFR for a
few hours before environment S flow at 925mb breaks out to VFR
before the next round of storms arrives from the north from OK
around 10z-12z. I`ll carry MVFR cigs with VCTS from 12z-15z with
a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs with IFR vsbys in TSRA.

Otherwise, kept similar trends beyond this time with prevailing
ESE winds around 10 kts and VFR returning by 18z, as we experience
a brief reprieve before tonight`s MCS. Speaking of, I removed the
TEMPO group beyond 00z Wed due to very low confidence on timing
and track of a nocturnal MCS expected Tues night on latest CAMs
and will just hold a VCTS/CB group from 02z onward.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  69  83  71  85 /  70  60  50  30  30
Waco                90  70  82  71  85 /  40  80  60  20  30
Paris               81  67  81  67  80 /  70  80  70  30  40
Denton              84  67  82  69  83 /  70  60  50  30  30
McKinney            83  68  82  69  82 /  80  70  60  30  30
Dallas              87  69  83  72  85 /  70  60  50  30  30
Terrell             85  68  82  69  84 /  70  60  60  30  30
Corsicana           87  69  84  71  86 /  50  60  60  20  30
Temple              90  70  83  71  86 /  30  70  50  20  20
Mineral Wells       86  68  81  69  84 /  50  70  50  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$