Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282024 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S UPPER HIGH TODAY AND WILL DO SO THROUGH MID
EVENING. A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE ROOTED IN THE MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO
DESPITE COVERAGE...ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. NO
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LATTER PARTS OF HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL
GAMES THIS EVENING NORTH OF I-20.

AS A COASTAL MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA
DRIFTS WEST...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER OUR AREA
WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW WEAK NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST NEAR OR
INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THOUGH ANY
SURFACE FOCUS APPEARS BENIGN...SUBTLE LIFT FROM MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG AUGUST
HEATING FOR AT LEAST A LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 ON SATURDAY...THEN FURTHER SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING
RELATIVELY MODEST AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT NOT STEEP AT ALL.
LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH SPOTTY LIGHT
RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE GULF COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS
SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER OVER THE ARKLATEX. EITHER
WAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN OFF OUR EASTERN CWA
EDGE. WE WILL ADVERTISE DIURNAL SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE BETTER MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONGER SEABREEZE
COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON. IT/S SAFE TO SAY THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK...AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KEY TO WHERE LOW RAIN CHANCES OCCUR EACH
DAY. OTHERWISE...SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

05

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1250 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THUNDER POTENTIAL NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

TAF SITES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE...MAINTAINING NORTH FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH IN THIS FLOW...BUT WILL FIND UNSEASONABLY DRY
AIR BENEATH THEM. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (10-20KFT AGL) WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
UNABLE TO COMPLETE A VOYAGE THROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

A SHALLOW FRONT HAS INVADED THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ATTENDANT
SHOWERS/STORMS. STILL APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD TO PROPEL OUTFLOW INTO THE DFW TRACON.
WEAK SOUTH FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL...WITH THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO OKLAHOMA. EARLY SATURDAY
DEPARTURES TO THE NORTH MAY BE DISRUPTED...BUT METROPLEX TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  77  95  77 /  10  20  20   5  10
WACO, TX              74  95  74  95  72 /  10  10  20  20   5
PARIS, TX             71  91  71  93  71 /  30  30  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            74  94  74  95  74 /  20  20  10   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  74  94  74 /  20  20  10   5  10
DALLAS, TX            77  94  78  95  77 /  10  20  20   5  10
TERRELL, TX           73  93  73  94  72 /  10  20  20   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  74  95  73 /  10  10  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  94  72  94  72 /   5  10  20  20   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  96  72  96  72 /  10  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/05


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