Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 270445 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1145 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Earlier convection has ceased as the atmosphere has nocturnally
stabilized across North Central Texas. The rest of the overnight
hours should be quiet at the TAF sites with easterly winds
gradually veering to a southeasterly direction at less than 10
kts. Outside of convection, VFR conditions will prevail through
A pretty tricky forecast appears to be in store for Wednesday.
There are some indications from high-resolution guidance that
elevated showers and storms may develop near the Red River during
the morning hours, likely in response to ongoing isentropic
ascent/warm advection. There`s been enough of a signal in recent
guidance to add in VCSH at the Metroplex sites after 14Z. Any
activity that does develop will move slowly towards the southwest.
As far as the thunder potential goes: a vorticity lobe pivoting
towards the Arklatex and subtle surface convergence around a
pressure trough may be the impetus for convective development on
Wednesday afternoon. For the 06Z TAF issuance, opted to prevail
VCTS at the Metroplex sites from 19-23Z, and 21-00Z at Waco.
Thereafter, activity should once again nocturnally wane with the
loss of daytime heating.
All convective activity has dissipated with the loss of heating. A
few spotty showers will be possible through the night, especially
across the southeastern zones, closest to a weak disturbance
rotating north through Louisiana. Therefore, we will keep some low
pops going overnight.
Temperatures tonight will be tricky as some outflow air has
already cooled temperatures into the 70s. We will adjust hourly
temps based on current readings but not change the forecast lows
too much since we do not anticipate much additional cooling in
locations that are already in the 70s.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/
Overall no significant changes were made to the forecast, but triple
digit temperatures could be making a comeback to portions of the
western half of the CWA starting early next week.
Showers and storms so far this afternoon have been confined to
mainly north of Interstate 30 with some isolated activity east of
Interstate 45. Will maintain a 20-30 percent chance for
convection across all of the region through the evening hours with
most of the activity expected to dissipate by 9 pm. Gusty winds
will be possible with any storms.
For the next few days, the upper level ridge will remain centered
west of North and Central Texas while an inverted trough continues
to slowly slide west across the central Gulf Coast. A vorticity
maximum within the base of the trough is currently located along
the Louisiana/Mississippi border and will continue to slide
northwest tonight. On Wednesday, it will stall near the
Louisiana/Arkansas border, and North and Central Texas will
remain between this feature and the upper level ridge to our west.
With ample moisture in place, the coverage of diurnally driven
convection is expected to be greater on Wednesday than today.
Lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain will again be possible
with any storms.
On Thursday, the inverted trough to our east will merge with
another upper level trough moving east through the Midwest. The
upper level ridge will still be centered to our west so expect
isolated to scattered showers and storms Thursday afternoon and
evening with slightly better rain chances across our eastern
counties. On Friday, rain chances will lower some across the
region as drier air begins to invade from the west.
Over the weekend, the upper level ridge will recenter over the
Plains ending rain chances for most of the region this weekend and
at least early next week. A few showers on the afternoon sea
breeze may occasionally reach our southeastern counties but hardly
anyone is expected to see rain early next week.
It will continue to be hot and humid through Friday but humidity
levels are expected to start lowering over the weekend as the
drier air works its way in from the west. With the upper level
ridge repositioning over the area next week, several locations
along and west of Interstate 35 could reach the 100 degree mark
each day next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 97 79 98 79 / 20 30 30 30 10
Waco 75 97 77 98 78 / 20 30 30 30 10
Paris 74 97 74 97 74 / 20 30 30 50 20
Denton 73 95 74 95 76 / 20 30 30 30 10
McKinney 74 95 76 95 75 / 20 30 30 30 20
Dallas 78 97 79 99 80 / 20 30 30 30 10
Terrell 75 95 76 95 75 / 20 30 30 40 20
Corsicana 75 95 77 96 78 / 20 30 30 40 20
Temple 74 95 76 96 76 / 20 30 30 30 20
Mineral Wells 72 96 75 97 75 / 20 30 30 30 10