Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
636 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A bit more of a complicated forecast than it is at first glance.
First for the easy part: VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the forecast period in the Metroplex. VFR conditions
expected overnight at Waco as well, but there may be a brief
period of MVFR conditions in Central Texas for an hour or two
Tuesday morning.

The more difficult part of the forecast is the winds. Surface
winds are expected to stay out of the south at 15-20 knots
sustained, with a few higher gusts as we move into the morning
hours. Just above the surface, however, the winds will increase
due to the low level jet kicking in around 40-50 knots around
midnight. Low level wind shear is a possibility tonight, but
confidence in this happening is not quite high enough to include
in the TAFs themselves.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/
Westerly flow aloft tonight will become more southwesterly on
Tuesday in response to a developing upper trough across the Great
Basin and Central Rockies. The southwesterly flow aloft will bring
warm air off the higher terrain in northern Mexico which will
keep a cap in place through Tuesday afternoon. It will also aid in
the mixing of the dryline eastward through the day. The combination
of dry air and adiabatic warming from southwesterly surface winds
behind the dryline will result in a hot afternoon across North
and Central Texas with highs Tuesday in the lower and middle 90s
across the western half of the forecast area and mid and upper 80s
elsewhere. It will also be breezy Tuesday afternoon which will
elevate the fire threat, especially west of a line from Bowie to
Granbury to Goldthwaite where afternoon humidities will fall below
30 percent. Of course, the abundance of live vegetation will lessen
the fire threat.

The dryline will retreat Tuesday evening and low level moisture will
surge northward in response to deepening low pressure near the Four
Corners region. This will result in warmer temperatures Wednesday
morning and the return of extensive low clouds. The upper low will
move east through Oklahoma during the day Wednesday and open the
door for a cold front. A few warm air advection showers are possible
Wednesday morning with a better chance for showers and storms along
the front across the eastern zones Wednesday afternoon. Although
a few strong storms can`t be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, the
best large scale forcing and instability will be across East Texas
and eastern Oklahoma.

Large scale subsidence will temporarily build over the state
Wednesday night and result in a mostly clear sky with
temperatures falling back into the 50s by sunrise Thursday. The
cool and quiet weather will be very brief due to another
developing low pressure system which is progged to take shape
across the Central Rockies the latter half of the week.
Initially, this developing system will bring a return of low
level moisture and much warmer temperatures Thursday through
Friday. Storm chances during this time frame should remain low
due to a stout cap of warm air expected ahead of this system.
Since the surface low associated with this system will remain
across the western Texas Panhandle, it is unlikely that the
dryline will mix into the western zones which should keep most of
the thunderstorm activity west of the region. However, a few
storms may develop late Friday afternoon just south of the Red
River if the cold front in Oklahoma can get any type of
reinforcement from afternoon convection in that region.

Storm chances will increase Friday night through Saturday as the
upper low moves into New Mexico and a cold front crosses the Red
River. The large scale lift supplied by the approaching system
will weaken the cap. Storms Saturday will have plenty of
instability and shear to work with and will have a potential to
become severe. Where the cold front ends up will largely
determine what locations have the highest severe storm potential.

The upper low will lift northeast from New Mexico, across West
Texas and into Oklahoma Saturday night through Sunday which will
keep a good chance for thunderstorms across North and Central
Texas. Strong dynamics and favorable thermodynamics should be in
place so will maintain high PoPs across the entire region Saturday
night and Sunday. It does appear that storms will come to an
abrupt end from west to east Sunday afternoon with the passage of
a strong cold front.

Sunday night through Monday will be much drier and cooler as surface
high pressure builds over the state. Temperatures to start next
week will be near or below normal with lows mainly in the 50s and
highs generally in the 70s.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  87  70  77  51 /   0  10  10  10  10
Waco                61  87  70  83  50 /   5  10  10  10  10
Paris               57  83  67  73  46 /   0  10  20  50  10
Denton              60  88  66  75  47 /   0  10  10  20  10
McKinney            60  85  68  77  47 /   0  10  20  30  10
Dallas              63  87  70  78  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
Terrell             60  84  69  78  47 /   0  10  20  30  10
Corsicana           60  85  70  81  49 /   0  10  20  30  10
Temple              61  86  69  84  51 /   5  10  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       60  92  64  75  46 /   5   5  10   5  10




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