Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 282042
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING THE PLAINS HAS EFFECTIVELY SPLIT
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...LEAVING
TEXAS IN A COL. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ACTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
EITHER BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH OR WITH A
DISTURBANCE ON THE TEXAS COAST...THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

WEAKENING SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-LEVELS HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY. THE ACTIVITY INVADING CENTRAL
TEXAS IS FAR FROM THE COASTAL LOW AND IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
AS SUCH...THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY NIGHTFALL...
MAKING MINIMAL ADDITIONAL PROGRESS. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH MIGHT SUGGEST A VIGOROUS LLJ COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT WILL LIKELY
DISRUPT THIS PROCESS. EVEN SO...DEEP WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE ONGOING ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST TO TRACE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...
PRIMARILY AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

THIS SEQUENCE OF EVENTS WILL DETERMINE WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER
FRIDAY. IF THE ACTIVITY IS WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTS MUCH OF THE
MORNING...IT MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF REDEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT IN SUCH A SCENARIO...SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD AID IN THE INITIATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH. EVEN WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000J/KG. HOWEVER...
INCREASINGLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF UPDRAFTS...AND WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHORTEN THE
LIFESPAN OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. THE PLAINS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHEAR/FORCING WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH...BUT ADEQUATE DCAPE WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THE MID-LATITUDE LOW EJECTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE COAST WILL GET PULLED
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA. ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE UPSTREAM OF CENTRAL
TEXAS...LIMITING THE EXTENT OF ANY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY IN
NORTH TEXAS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO
LOUISIANA. OUR EASTERN ZONES WOULD ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS.

BY SUNDAY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE FLOW...BUT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL LINGER. WITH MINIMAL
INHIBITION AND RICH GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE...ONE FINAL AFTERNOON
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS.
THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD TAKE HOLD. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK...WITH UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 110 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/
/18Z TAFS/

SEVERAL CHALLENGES STILL EXIST ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE NEXT
24 HRS. THE FIRST WITH AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SECOND WITH THE MAIN UPPER TOUGH LIFTING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND IF/WHEN/AND WHERE IT TAPS
INTO THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF KBRO.
MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING MAY PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR THE WACO
AREA. MANY VARIABLES WILL PLAY A ROLE DUE TO THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
BEING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA...NO SURFACE FOCUS TO SPEAK OF...AND
TIMING.

A VFR FORECAST FOR ALL DFW METRO TAF SITES LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
A PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...UNLESS THIN AXIS OF FORCING AND MOISTURE TO OUR WEST
CAN GET CLOSER...FEEL THAT VCSH SHOULD COVER THINGS WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH 7-8 KTS AFTER 09Z. AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING SYNOPTIC FEATURES LEAVES NO CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
THUNDER JUST YET ON FRIDAY.

AT WACO...WILL CARRY VFR AND ADVERTISE A BRIEF 3-HOUR WINDOW FOR
VCTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE WHERE
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. OTHERWISE...WIND TRENDS
WILL BE THE SAME AS DFW AIRPORTS.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  94  76  93  77 /  20  40  40  30  10
WACO, TX              75  94  74  93  76 /  20  40  30  30  10
PARIS, TX             73  91  72  90  72 /  20  40  40  30  10
DENTON, TX            76  94  75  94  75 /  30  40  40  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  92  74  91  74 /  20  40  40  30  10
DALLAS, TX            78  93  77  92  77 /  20  40  40  30  10
TERRELL, TX           75  93  74  91  74 /  20  40  40  30  10
CORSICANA, TX         75  92  74  92  74 /  20  40  30  40  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  93  74  93  74 /  20  40  30  30  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  94  73  94  73 /  30  40  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25




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