Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 041147
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH CONVECTION
AND THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER PLACE AS FAR AS TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED VERY POORLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS AND IS
ALSO NOT ALIGNING WITH CURRENT TRENDS. IT APPEARS THE WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING MOST OF THE
REGION DRY...BUT THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO A MORE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WHICH COULD INTERACT WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALOFT AND THE TAIL END OF FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE OZARKS. AT THIS POINT THINK THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL
TO SHOW A VCTS IN THE TAF DURING PEAK HEATING FROM 21Z-00Z.

OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 7-13KT WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY INFLUENCES FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/
A BROAD VIEW OF THE CONUS REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH TAILING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A
COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...A
STATIONARY FRONT...AND OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ALLOW NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THESE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PUSH SOUTH...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...BUT THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS INDICATE OTHERWISE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE VEERED WINDS AT
THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT THE FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH YOU GO. WHATEVER THE CASE...A FEW
MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12 AND THE TEXAS TECH WRF APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT PATTERN PRETTY WELL AND WE WILL USE THEM AS A
STARTING POINT FOR TODAY/S POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR
PARIS...AND THE LOWEST NEAR LAMPASAS. IF OUTFLOW PUSHES FARTHER
SOUTHWEST THAN PLANNED WE WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

ANYWAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
FOR THE EVENING FESTIVITIES...CONVECTION SHOULD BEHAVE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET AS SURFACE
HEATING WANES. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE
STRONGEST.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY...AND GENERALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUESDAY...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING WEDNESDAY AS
THE WEAK FEATURE EXITS TO THE EAST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  77  93  78  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
WACO, TX              92  74  92  75  93 /  10  10  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             86  72  89  74  90 /  40  20  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            90  75  93  76  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          89  76  91  75  91 /  30  20  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            91  79  94  78  93 /  20  20  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           88  74  92  74  91 /  30  20  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         90  75  92  75  92 /  20  20  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            91  73  92  75  92 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  73  94  74  94 /  10  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.