471
FXUS64 KMEG 050453
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1153 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers and weak thunderstorms continue across the
Midsouth, most numerous over west Tennessee and northeast
Mississippi. The forecast remains tricky in a low shear high
instability environment, and short term guidance has not been a
lot of help lately. However, a warm front is lifting across the
Midsouth tonight and a cold front will approach the region
tomorrow afternoon. These features should provide more of a focus
for showers and thunderstorms to develop adding a bit more
confidence to the forecast late tonight into tomorrow. It may
sound like a broken record, but expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms late tonight and tomorrow. The severe threat should
remain minimal as we will remain in a weakly sheared environment.
We should see mostly dry and slightly cooler conditions return to
the Midsouth tomorrow and continue through Friday. Unfortunately,
rain looks to return for the weekend.

30/Sirmon

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Warm and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow as a few
systems track across the Mid-South. As thunderstorms push across the
Mid-South this afternoon and into evening a few strong to severe
storms may be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and
localized flooding. A cold front will move through Thursday
decreasing our rain chances and cooling temperatures slightly. This
lapse in rainfall will not last long, however, as another low
pressure system brings showers and thunderstorms back into the
forecast Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The Mid-South will remain under weak quasi-zonal flow through
tomorrow as an unsettled weather pattern persists over the area. A
negatively tilted upper trough currently centered over the Iowa and
Missouri border continues to churn east giving lift to two different
MCVs. The first MCV`s remnants are currently spreading very light
showers along the Tennessee river. The second and perhaps more
pronounced MCV is currently churning over Little Rock`s area,
over central Arkansas. This second MCV will continue making its
trek east, entering into our area later this afternoon.

This MCV will move into northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and West Tennessee bringing showers and thunderstorms
along with it. These thunderstorms will have the potential to
become strong to severe with primary threats of damaging winds,
large hail, and localized heavy rainfall. This convection will be
entering into an environment of forecast surface based CAPE values
of 1500-1800 J/kg, PWATs around 1.8", and 0-6 bulk wind shear
values around 25 kts. Though severe parameters have decreased
slightly as time has drawn closer and through this evening, a
conditional threat of severe weather still exists across the Mid-
South. Already saturated soils and elevated rivers and streams may
be at a higher risk for flooding through tomorrow evening.

Come tomorrow morning, another embedded upper trough looks to churn
in and center over Arkansas pushing what looks to be another
rotating MCV across the Mid-South. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue through tomorrow`s end as this upper trough pushes across
the Middle Mississippi Valley. A few thunderstorms could pulse up
along and north of the Tennessee and Mississippi border tomorrow
afternoon into evening producing damaging winds and some possible
large hail. Surface based CAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg and
around 30 kts of 0-6 bulk wind shear will be present.

A cold front will finally move through Thursday afternoon,
diminishing rainfall chances and decreasing relative humidity.
Northwest flow and surface high pressure will follow this leading
cold front creating a pleasant end to the workweek and beginning
of the weekend. This lull in precipitation won`t last long,
however, as another low pressure system and attendant cold front
looks to push showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South
Saturday evening and into Monday morning. The good news is, the
Climate Prediction Center has temperatures below normal well into
mid June.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Timing of precip windows is quite difficult to nail down over the
course of the next 24 hours just given the isolated nature. Point
soundings indicated enough instability to warrant carrying a VCTS
overnight at MEM. The main story is intermittent periods of
VCTS/SH throughout the TAF cycle with midlevel ceilings after a
brief period of MVFR ceilings Wednesday morning. Winds should
shift around to the north behind a front early Thursday morning
to usher in a cooler, drier airmass and a welcomed respite from
convection.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CAD