Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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235 FXUS64 KMEG 061721 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Partly cloudy skies can be found across much of north Mississippi and portions of west Tennessee with mostly sunny conditions across the remainder of the Mid-South. Temperatures this morning across the region are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A cold front continues to push southeast into west Tennessee and north Mississippi. While there are some clouds ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are not expected to form ahead of it this afternoon. Current forecast looks good with no update needed. ARS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Another warm and humid day is expected across the Mid-South today with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, resulting in slightly cooler and drier air for the start of the upcoming weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances are anticipated to return this weekend as a cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. The best rain chances are anticipated to be mainly north of I-40. Cooler temperatures early next week will moderate back towards 90 degrees by late next week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show an elongated upper-level low centered over western Ontario and a weak upper-level low located over southern Mississippi early this morning. These two features are embedded within an upper-level trough axis that encompasses the eastern United States. A cold front stretches this morning from Lake Michigan back through northern Missouri and into Kansas. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across the Mid- South with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the lower 70s with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Short-term models indicate the aforementioned weak low will push away from the region today with the Mid-South remaining within northwest flow aloft into the weekend. A weak and dry cold front is expected to drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, resulting in slightly cooler and drier air. A secondary cold front is expected to move into the region later Saturday into Sunday as the upper-level low moves towards Quebec. This will bring a return of shower and thunderstorm chances to the Mid-South with the best chances occurring on Sunday, especially north of I-40. At this time, strong to severe thunderstorm potential appears to be best over the Ozarks for the upcoming weekend where long range ensemble guidance indicates better surface-based instability and shear will be located. Nonetheless, trends will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs. NBM temperatures for the weekend were trending slightly too high and blended towards the NBM 25th percentile. Long-term operational and ensemble model guidance indicate an upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S. for much of next week with an upper-level ridge attempting to build into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. A weak shortwave trough may bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR CIGs will prevail through the period. A few CAMs develop showers impacting MEM and JBR this afternoon as a reinforcing front sweeps across the Mid-South. However, given low confidence in coverage opted to leave mention of precip out of TAF. Ahead of the front, expect winds to gust up to 18 kts for a few hours before slowing and veering northeast overnight. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...ANS