Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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656 FXUS64 KOHX 211706 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1206 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 If I were a betting man, my money would be on many people stepping outside today and immediately saying, "It sure feels like summer out here." They wouldn`t be wrong: dew points in the mid to upper 60s and almost every site in Middle TN in the low 80s at 10 am? Yeah. That`s summer. However, it`s May 21st. That means it`s still spring and that means severe weather. Not today, but I gotta tell you, models have starting singing a song of a very active holiday weekend ahead. Yesterday didn`t look like much, but it looks a lot different today. In the short term, today will remain quiet. High pressure is dominating the area and while some heat-of-the-afternoon cumulus clouds will eventually develop, we should remain rain-free. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s in many spots, but we should come up short of the record 94 degrees from 1941. We`re still looking at tomorrow being the start of our active stretch of weather. This begins with a round of showers and thunderstorms crossing the TN River just before sunrise tomorrow. This first wave should be of the general variety and almost every model shows these petering out pretty quickly -- likely only a light shower by the time they reach the I-65 corridor. This will start a lull in activity before the front associated this system starts to approach mid-afternoon tomorrow. Instability is respectable with about 30 kts of shear, so I wouldn`t write this first round of storms off. A few strong wind gusts will be possible (40-60 mph) with brief heavy rains through the early evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Each of the next several days will present thunderstorm chances, as we talked about yesterday. What`s different is, now a few of the days are standing out as having severe threats. At this time, if I had to pick 3 of them, Friday, Sunday and Monday look like they`ll have the best chance. Each show an all-severe mode threat: damaging wind gusts, large hail and even a tornado threat, plus heavy rain. Sharp mid-level lapse rates (8+ deg/km), 3000-4000 J/Kg CAPE, deep layer and low-level shear, and several other parameters that are fairly impressive, like supercell composites in the upper teens by Sunday. However I wouldn`t sleep on Thursday or Saturday, either. In addition, I still think the cumulative rainfall through the weekend presents a flooding threat at some point due to PWs running 1.5-1.6 inches throughout the weekend. So, here`s the point: please remain weather aware from tomorrow through Monday. Check back here, check our website and our socials regularly for the latest. I have a feeling the ol` weather bureau is gonna have a busy holiday weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions persist today. Winds will pick up later this morning to 5-10 kts out of the south. Cloud coverage will increase at the tail end of this taf cycle ahead of a line of storms forecast to move through overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 69 85 68 83 / 20 50 70 80 Clarksville 69 83 66 80 / 70 60 90 80 Crossville 62 80 63 76 / 0 30 60 70 Columbia 68 85 67 81 / 10 60 60 70 Cookeville 65 80 65 78 / 10 40 70 70 Jamestown 64 80 64 75 / 0 30 80 80 Lawrenceburg 67 85 67 81 / 10 60 60 60 Murfreesboro 67 85 67 82 / 10 60 70 70 Waverly 68 84 65 81 / 50 60 80 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Unger