081
FXUS64 KTSA 021522
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1022 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Ongoing storm cluster across SW OK / N TX has been poorly handled
within morning short term guidance and observations suggest no
near term weakening trend is expected. Warm front extends
southeastward across N TX with a corridor of strong instability
aligned downstream of this convection. Should these storms persist
into the afternoon a likely track would come near or through SE
OK and updated forecasts will adjust afternoon storm chances
upward accordingly. Extensive cirrus debris from the ongoing
convection will overspread the area and updated forecast will
slight temp adjustments.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The MPAS and HRRR suggest there is much better potential tonight
into Monday morning for one or more MCSs to move into the area. An
MCV or convective-induced vort will likely be sliding over the
region Monday morning as well. By Monday afternoon, the better
rain/storm chances will be shifting east, with rain/storm chances
trending lower in the wake of the MCV. PoPs Monday night have been
lowered to chance across the north with a slight chance thunder
prob given low confidence and lack of a convective signal coming
in from the High Plains.

Focus then turns to a strong shortwave trough to slide across the
northern tier of states later in the week, on the nose of a
powerful cross-Pacific upper jet. This system will force a
formidable frontal boundary south down the Plains which will
become the focus for what will likely become one or more MCSs to
track southeast across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. A
reinforcing front will slide thru Thursday, bringing at least low
thunder chances. The GFS and EC differ with the details beyond
Thursday, but indications are that there will be some potential
for more MCS activity late week on into next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Patchy fog will burn off by mid morning, otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period. The chances
for showers and storms late tonight are too low to include at any
TAF site at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  72  85  71 /  20  50  60  30
FSM   89  71  88  72 /  10  40  50  30
MLC   88  71  85  72 /  20  50  50  20
BVO   87  70  85  68 /  20  40  60  30
FYV   87  68  85  68 /  10  30  60  30
BYV   86  68  84  68 /  10  20  50  40
MKO   86  69  84  71 /  10  40  60  30
MIO   87  69  82  68 /  10  20  60  30
F10   86  70  84  70 /  20  50  60  30
HHW   84  70  84  71 /  30  60  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05