Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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635 FXUS63 KSGF 290526 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1226 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (30-50%) across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri on Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Many locations remain dry across the area. - Higher rain chances (50-80%) return late Thursday night through Friday. Low potential for heavy rainfall. - Additional rain chances (20-40%) linger through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Through Tonight: A shortwave and an associated system are sliding south and west of the area this afternoon. This spawned a few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri earlier today. This activity has since dissipated with most of the area remaining dry. Mid to high level clouds continue to linger across the area through the evening. Highs top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, though dewpoints in the middle 50s have been a relief from the late Spring humidity. For tonight, clouds dissipate across most of the area with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday: Mid-level ridging begins to breakdown across the Plains into Wednesday, allowing shortwave energy to translate into the area. While moisture return is rather weak into Wednesday, some of the short term guidance is beginning to come into agreement on chances for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms reaching into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri through the morning into the afternoon. Given that there is not agreement across the board and some dry air in place, will ride with 30-50% PoPs in this area on Wednesday. If additional hi- res guidance come into agreement over the next 12 hours, higher rain chances may need to be introduced. Areas further north and east across the area should remain dry through Wednesday with a bit cooler highs in the middle to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Thursday-Friday: By Thursday, an upper level trough settles into the Northern Plains, allowing quasi-zonal flow with embedded shortwaves to setup across the central CONUS. This will support the return of southerly advection into the region. Guidance depicts PWATs around 1.3 to 1.5 inches advecting into the area in the vicinity of stationary boundary draped across the western half. Expect rain chances to increase late Thursday night into Friday, with PoPs highest (60-80%) west of Highway 65. Further east, PoPs a bit lower around 30-50% through Friday afternoon. By late Friday, an associated trough and low lift east spreading rain chances further east into south central Missouri. There remains a few differences among the ensemble guidance on the timing and how the mesoscale features unfold. Nonetheless, the stage is set for potentially heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. There remains a Marginal (1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook over the area on Friday. Efficient rainfall rates will be prevalent, and any areas that see repeated thunderstorms over the same areas may be susceptible to flash flooding. Many area waterways are running above normal flow following active weather over the last 1 to 2 weeks in addition to saturated soils. NBM 4.2 Probabilities of 48 hour QPF (Thursday evening through Friday morning) showing the following: >0.5 inch: 50-70% along/west of I-49; 30-50% east towards Highway 65 >1.0 inches: 30-50% along/west of I-49; 10-30% east towards Highway 65 For those mentoring the forecast over the last few days, this has trended lower from previous forecasts. Thus, confidence still remains low on exact rainfall amounts at this time with this first system late Thursday through Friday. Any severe chances remain low given the lack of adequate instability/shear. Highs remain in the middle to upper 70s through Friday. Saturday-Monday: The upper-level flow remains active into the weekend with additional rain chances (20-40%) lingering across the region. Highs remain around normal for late May in the upper 70s to lower 80s. CPC and additional long term guidance hint at the active weather (above normal precipitation) continuing through at least early June, && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 For the 06z TAFS, some shortwave energy underneath and upper ridge will make it into the area later today with some increasing moisture in the southwest portion of the forecast area. Some hi-res models are bring some scattered convection over the area this afternoon and early evening and have gone with some prob30s for the TAFS in between 20z and 02z. Outside of any convection, we are generally going with VFR conditions, but may see some MVFR within any showers/storms that develop. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Lindenberg