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000
FXUS63 KSGF 012035
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Isolated to widely scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms
have developed over central and east central Missouri this
afternoon in advance of an upper level short wave. This activity
is expected to continue to move southward through the remainder of
the afternoon before dissipating around sunset.

The mild August temperatures are expected to continue through the
weekend as an upper level ridge remains ensconced over the
Rockies and we remain in northwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

By Sunday night...a short wave approaching the West Coast will
begin to flatten out the ridge which will push the upper level
trough currently over the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio
Valley. This will bring a warming trend to the region that will
return us to near normal August temperatures by Tuesday.

As this short wave moves up and over the ridge and dives
southward...a surface front will form in the lee of the Rockies on
Tuesday which will begin to affect our weather on Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon. Have chance
PoPs going in the forecast through Friday. Right now...expect
coverage to be scattered with the entire area getting somewhere
between one-quarter to one-half inch of rain through that period.
Temperatures should remain seasonal through the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Scattered MVFR ceilings will remain possible across southern
Missouri early this afternoon. However, VFR is expected to
prevail. There will be isolated showers and thunderstorms across
portions of southern Missouri, but coverage is expected to be too
limited for inclusion into the TAFs...but may warrant amendments
later this afternoon. The next aviation concern will then be fog
potential again from late tonight into early Saturday morning.
Some weather model guidance has recently started trending towards
IFR fog potential...especially around Springfield. We have
incorporated this potential into the TAFs with prevailing MVFR and
TEMPO groups to IFR. If these trends continue, an introduction to
LIFR may be necessary in future TAF issuances.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Schaumann