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000
FXUS63 KSGF 251803
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

...Update to Public and Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

PoPs have been increased throughout the morning to account for
pockets of light rain spreading southeast across the central and
eastern Ozarks. This light precipitation has been occurring behind
a cold front which trails a surface low pressure centered across
southern Illinois. Brisk and gusty northwest winds have also
developed behind the front...with a few gusts pushing 40 mph
across western Missouri and southeastern Kansas.

Heading into this afternoon, that area of light rain will spread
into the remainder of the eastern Ozarks. We will also see an
area of more organized precipitation wrap around that low into the
central and eastern Ozarks. While most of this will be rain,
temperatures profiles in the lower atmosphere will be very close
to the rain/snow threshold. We do think that some wet snowflakes
will be possible this afternoon both along the higher terrain of
the Ozark Plateau, and then late this afternoon across central
Missouri. Even though temperatures will fall into the 30s this
afternoon, they will remain too warm to support any accumulation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level trough is currently diving south across the central
Plains early this morning. Some scattered sprinkles or light rain
is occurring across the area ahead of the trough. The trough will
push to the southeast through the area today and light rain or
flurries will occur at times. Will not be an all day rain but
there could be off and on light rain and sprinkles through much of
the day especially across the eastern Ozarks. The best coverage in
this light rain will occur this morning across the eastern
Ozarks. This afternoon there will still be the light rain or
sprinkles occurring at times, the better chances will remain across
the eastern Ozarks.

As the upper level trough passes south through the area height
falls will quickly cool the mid levels of the atmosphere today,
but low level temperatures at the surface and just above the ground
will remain warm enough for all rain through much of the day. A
cold front will drop south through the area today and temperatures
will fall this afternoon especially across central Missouri, which
may allow a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain late this
afternoon into early this evening. This will be very light
snow/flurries mixing in with rain and with surface temperatures
above freezing no accumulations will occur. The precipitation
will come to an end by the mid evening hours.

Cloudy skies and the passage of the cold front late this morning
will keep temperatures cooler today. Most locations highs for the
entire day will occur this morning, with temperatures holding
steady or slightly or falling this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

An upper level ridge will then build east across the Plains and
over the region by Wednesday. This will allow a nice warm up with
highs warming into the 50s and 60s and each day through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push the ridge to the east and usher
in cooler conditions late this week into the weekend as highs only
warm into the 40s as a second upper level trough tracks through
the region. Moisture will be limited with this system but some
light rain or sprinkles may be possible on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

Areas of rain and MVFR ceilings will persist this afternoon across
much of southern Missouri. A few brief pockets of IFR ceilings
will be possible...mainly around Springfield. There will also be a
low probability for a few wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain
around Springfield. This is not expected to result in any further
reductions to flight categories.

Breezy conditions and MVFR ceilings will then continue into
tonight...although winds will decrease by late tonight. Ceilings
around Springfield will lower a bit and will be very close to
the MVFR/IFR threshold by late tonight. There are also indications
that skies will clear late tonight around Joplin. If this
happens, there will be the potential for at least some light fog.
We have covered this with a TEMPO MVFR group for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann