Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 262106
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

...Showers Likely Tonight...Much Colder Weather Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

We had a little more sunshine earlier today before the clouds
finally moved in and that helped warm temperatures into the middle
and some upper 50s. The clouds are back for at least the next 24
hours. Radar is showing some light echoes developing which could
be some patchy drizzle or light showers. We can expected this to
gradually increase and expand later this evening and become
widespread showers after midnight through early tomorrow morning.

The cold front is currently near Kansas City down to just
southeast of Wichita. This front will slowly move southeastward
tonight. It will remain somewhat breezy tonight ahead of the front
and temperatures will remain mild in the middle to upper 40s
tonight ahead of the front. The front will reach roughly the Kansas and
Missouri state line by 3 am and the Highway 65 corridor by 6 am.
Temperatures behind the front will drop into the upper 30s by
tomorrow morning.

Showers will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and exit the
eastern Missouri Ozarks late Saturday evening. Temperatures will
fall most of the day across the area Saturday...eventually
most areas will be in the upper 30s by Saturday afternoon. There
could be a very low chance of a wet snow flake mix in on the back
edge of the exiting showers. If that does happen...not expecting
any impacts and again temperatures will be above freezing in the
upper 30s. Clouds will clear out late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning and temperatures will drop into the middle and
upper 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Sunshine and a few clouds will be around on Sunday and Monday with
seasonable temperatures. The next weather feature to watch will be
an Arctic front that will arrive Monday night. The front will move
through quietly with mainly cloudy skies. Northerly winds will
pick up and strong cold air advection will take place. There have
been some potential of maybe some flurries possible in a couple of
the models Monday night and early Tuesday with the passage of the
Arctic front.

Temperatures will be very cold Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will
be sub freezing in the middle 20s to lower 30s and overnight lows
down in the teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits
to near zero. The weather will be dry through Thursday.

As been previously discussed in earlier forecast
discussions...there will be a strong piece of upper level energy
will move down the western U.S. middle of next week. This system
will become cut off into a slow moving upper level low over the
Four Corner`s Region. With cold air in place most of next
week...this is a system to watch for the end of next week for any
impacts to the region.

The latest model guidance suggest this upper level low pressure
system will move out across the southern U.S. into the Mid
Mississippi River Valley Region by the end of next week. At this
time...will introduce a chance of precipitation Thursday night
into Friday night. Depending on exact track and evolution of this
system will have implications on what type of precip we will see.
Right now will mention the potential for some type of wintry
weather possible end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Challenging forecast over the next 24 hours. Moisture on the rise
across the area and this will lead to the development, expansion
and lowering of stratus this afternoon into this evening. Just
starting to see signs of high end MVFR/low end VFR developing to
the southwest of the TAF sites, and this should continue to spread
northeastward. Timing is still a bit of a mess so have covered
onset with TEMPO groups. By late this afternoon and this evening,
stratus will be entrenched and lowering, eventually to IFR. Light
rain showers and drizzle will develop with the lowering cloud
bases as southerly winds continue. Potential for LIFR exists where
drizzle is heaviest. Cold front will enter from the northwest
late tonight into Saturday. IFR/low end MVFR will persist through
the end of the TAF cycle.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan





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