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000
FXUS63 KSGF 101629
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Spring fever is in the air for today and tomorrow with Spring like
weather in the forecast. The only weather concern for today will
be an elevated fire risk for grassland areas due to lower humidity
values this afternoon and gusty southwest winds. Wind gusts will
approach 30 mph in open areas and humidity values may drop into
the 25 to 30 percent range this afternoon. High temperatures will
soar into the lower 70s today for most location with mostly sunny
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

Even warmer weather is on tap for Tuesday. Guidance came in pretty
warm with the MAV showing upper 70s to lower 80s. Will not go that
warm just yet but thinking middle to upper 70s is a good bet for
tomorrow`s afternoon highs. High and mid level clouds will be on
the increase by Tuesday afternoon with the approach of a strong
cold front moving in Tuesday night.

Not much has changed from the previous forecast in regards to
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. A strong cold front and
associated strong shortwave will move through during Tuesday
night with widespread light rain. Hard to imagine that after highs
in the 70s on Tuesday that we might see a brief change over to
some wet snow flakes by early Wednesday morning.

Surface temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30s by
Wednesday morning with enough cold air aloft to have a brief
window of rain either mixing or changing over to wet snow. At this
time...not expecting any real accumulations with the wet snow potential.
Ground temperatures will be rather warm from the warm weather from
Monday and Tuesday. If anything...maybe a light dusting on grassy
areas but it will melt quickly on Wednesday with temperatures back
in the 40s and breezy. Precip will end rather quickly from west to
east Wednesday morning.

Seasonable and drier weather returns for the end of the week into
the weekend. The medium range models are having a tough time with
next weekend`s weather system and confidence is rather low in the
forecast at this time. Will mention some rain chances possible
late next weekend but timing is questionable with the variance in
model data.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Pilots will need to monitor for low level wind shear this evening
and tonight, with 40 knots at around 2000 feet expected.

Otherwise skies should remain clear while breezy southwest winds
weaken this evening and tonight.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>057-
     066>069-077>080-088>090-093-094.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 6 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Cramer