752
FXUS61 KBGM 101904
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional scattered showers will be possible today. Drier
conditions will arrive this evening, and will last through most
of the week. A warm up is expected to start Tuesday, with
temperatures returning to be above normal for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM update...

Cool cloudy weather will slowly improve this period. A large
deep upper level trough is over the northeast US today. Heights
will slowly rise into Tuesday as a ridge moves into the upper
Great Lakes. This despite the trough axis being right over our
area Tuesday.

A front is helping a band of rain just north of the area east of
Lake Ontario this afternoon. A few showers are making it into
northern Oneida County. Elsewhere the moist northwest flow and
weak forcing has created some showers from Madison to Otsego
Counties. Most of the area could have a few light showers across
the terrain into early evening. Tonight will be dry and cloudy.
Lows will be from the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

Tuesday drier air will move in ahead of high pressure moving in
from the west. Light to calm winds at low levels will stop
advecting in moisture from the lakes. Partial clearing will
start in the west. Cold air aloft combined with highs in the
60s to lower 70s south will create some instability under the
upper level trough. Some isolated afternoon and early evening
showers are possible in far northeast PA and into the upper
Susquehanna and western Catskills in CNY.

Tuesday night the trough will slowly exit and dry air will move
in. Skies will be partly cloudy with lows again from the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM Update...

The upper level trough will continue to influence the weather in
our area for one more night as northerly flow combined with very
light winds in the mid levels keep a cool airmass overhead.
Temps Tuesday night will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s.

On Wednesday, SW flow returns to the area as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the SW. A warmer airmass moves into the
region, bringing mid to upper 70s on Wed and mid to upper 80s on
Thursday. With the high pressure system comes very pleasant
weather, with partly to mostly sunny skies and dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
350 AM Update...

The mid week dry weather will not last long as another frontal
system will move into the area Friday morning, bringing
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day. A low
pressure system centered north of our CWA in Canada will slide
eastward Thursday night through Friday, pushing a front through
our area sometime early Friday morning to Friday afternoon. The
timing is still a little uncertain, but confidence is moderately
high that showers will start to enter the area from the NW
Thursday night and exiting the area by Friday evening. High
pressure builds into the region behind the front, bringing nice
and dry conditions to the CWA for the weekend. Temps will be
seasonable, in the 70s and 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
135 pm update...

Lingering low level moisture continues to bring low clouds to
much of Central NY, with some occasional breaks. MVFR cigs in
CNY will dominate until 15 or 16z Tuesday. ELM should stay just
above MVFR until around 09z. With cloudy skies and little rain
vsbys will remain VFR.

KAVP will remain VFR the entire period.

West to northwest winds at 10 kts with some higher gusts this
afternoon. Winds tonight northwest to north and under 5 kts.
Tuesday west to northwest winds at 5 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...TAC