371
FXUS64 KLUB 291159
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
659 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Overnight showers and thunderstorms are coming to an end this
morning as the midlevel shortwave that helped to maintain the
activity pushes eastward and weakens. However, low level moisture
will remain in place as surface winds turn back to the east
southeast and 60s dewpoints are maintained. Low clouds will begin to
fill in across the area this morning and linger through much of the
day. This afternoon, there may be some breaks in the low clouds that
may allow for increased daytime heating. The upper ridge will slide
east into the Plains today, which will give way to the next trough
axis over the Pacific Northwest. Surface troughing will develop this
afternoon on the leeward side of the Northern Rockies with the
approaching southwesterly flow aloft. This weak surface troughing
will extend southward into eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico
and give way to the potential for afternoon thunderstorm
development. Due to the low clouds and cooler air mass, much of the
area is likely to remain under a strong capping inversion. However,
given the small potential of breaking in the low stratus deck,
slight chance PoPs were maintained through the afternoon and
evening. Another shortwave will provide lift overnight tonight with
the potential for showers and thunderstorms across the far southeast
Texas Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Storms would likely remain
elevated as once again southeasterly surface winds will give way to
a low stratus deck building in overnight. Main threats with storms
will be large hail and damaging wind gusts with MUCAPE values of
2000+ J/kg and effective shear of 40 knots, which is supportive of
supercells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The upper level ridge will begin to shift eastward Thursday as a
shortwave trough and associated 250mb jet moves into the region.
This will lead to another day of increased thunderstorm chances
across the South Plains region Thursday with strong to severe storms
possible. Low to mid-level southerly flow will help aid in moisture
return from the Gulf of Mexico into the region Thursday afternoon
with dewpoint temperatures progged in the mid to upper 60s. A
surface low in eastern New Mexico will begin to push the dryline
eastward into the western South Plains Thursday afternoon where it
will stall. Latest model guidance suggest that storms will begin to
fire just west of the I-27 corridor and track east through portions
of the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. However,
there will be a few caveats that the environment will have to
overcome before convection can initialize. One being stubborn low-
level stratus through the morning will need to diminish, if these
clouds were to stick we may not see enough diurnal destabilization
to help erode the cap in place. Second, being any remaining outflow
boundaries from previous storms could throw a wrench in PoPs. Some
model guidance continues to hint at a frontal boundary tracking in
from the northern Texas Panhandle which would keep high temperatures
on Thursday cooler than forecasted. If thunderstorms are able to
develop an environment conducive of isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible with MLCAPE values up to 4500 J/kg
and effective bulk shear above 40 knots. Flash flooding cannot be
ruled out at this time; especially given long-skinny CAPE profiles
depicted by forecast sounding and PWATS above 1.5".

By Friday, precipitation chances begin to decrease as the shortwave
trough exits the region. However, residual moisture and a series of
perturbations aloft may lead to a few isolated thunderstorms
across portions of the region Friday. Convective potential becomes
a bit more messy and tricky on Saturday with another perturbation
in the flow aloft expected to track in from the west through the
weekend. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement with this
being our next best chance of precipitation. Depending on where
the dryline chooses to set up and how much the environment is able
to recover, some storms may become strong to severe. By Sunday
the warming trend will begin as upper level ridging begins to move
back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

All of the convection has moved out of the area. Scattered to
broken low clouds with MVFR ceilings are expected at all three
sites this morning. There is a chance the clouds may break through
the afternoon hours with a return to VFR conditions at times.
Ceilings will lower again tonight to MVFR and potentially IFR.
Confidence is low on thunderstorms at all three sites, so no
mention was given for this TAF issuance.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11