636
FXUS65 KBOU 240025
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
525 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow in the mountains and foothills mainly south of I-70
  and crest of Palmer Divide this evening. Minimal accumulations
  expected.

- Light rain through early Monday morning for the plains,
  especially the eastern half.

- Becoming windy Monday afternoon to Tuesday, and turning colder.

- Some moderation with diminishing chances of mountain snow
  through Thanksgiving.

- First taste of winter weather next weekend, with a chance of
  snow for the mountains and plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Sunday/...
Issued at 120 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Current satellite imagery shows the upper level low over northern
New Mexico/southwestern Colorado, with light showers ongoing in
Park county and southern plains. Expect light snow for elevations
above 7000 feet (with rain/snow mix between 6500 and 7000 feet)
through late tonight. Snowfall amounts will range from T-3" for
areas along and south of I-70. Highest amounts will be confined to
ridgetops and high passes, with slick roads expected this evening
and Monday morning. Due to diabatic cooling, some of the higher
elevations along the Palmer Divide could see snow accumulating on
grass tonight, but generally expect less than an inch
accumulation if that pans out.

For the plains, rain showers will persist in the southern and
eastern plains through Monday morning. Short range guidance still
favors the bulk of precipitation for the eastern plains.
Ensemble`s 25th-75th QPF percentiles range between 0.1"-0.5", but
still can`t rule out a narrow band of 0.75" or slightly higher due
to frontogenetical forcing under the deformation zone. Due to the
track of this system, there will be a distinct cut off in
precipitation amounts towards Denver metro/I-25 corridor and
northern plains, with about half of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble
solutions now showing no precipitation west of DIA. Best case
scenario would be a few light rain showers that wet the ground.

Flow aloft will turn northwesterly Monday afternoon as a fast-
moving shortwave travels just north of the forecast area. Light
orographic snow showers are possible in the northern mountains
Monday night into Tuesday morning. However, with the lack of
moisture availability and better forcing north of us, minimal snow
accumulations are expected, with minor travel impacts. The concern
for the strong winds (>60 mph) has continued to diminish. Most
likely, we will still be windy along ridge tops and the Cheyenne
Ridge, with gusts up to 45 mph possible at times. The typical wind
prone areas adjacent to the foothills will also be breezy Monday
afternoon through early Tuesday morning.

A cold front associated with the upper level shortwave will travel
across the area overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning. This
will bring morning lows to the 20s to low 30s over the plains and
teens to low 20s in the mountains and valleys. Below normal
temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid
40s (20s to 30s in the high country). Wednesday will be the
coldest morning of the week, with most of forecast area waking up
to temperatures below 20 degrees. However, we will begin warming
up for the later half of the week as a ridge builds back over the
southwest United States. Expect seasonal temperatures on Wednesday
and about above normal temperatures (mid to upper 50s) for
Thanksgiving and Friday. While most of the forecast area will
remain dry, embedded shortwaves could produce light orographic
snow showers in the northern mountains.

Holiday travel could be impacted this weekend as we likely get
our first true taste of winter. Ensemble guidance has continued to
trend towards a system bringing colder temperatures and a chance
of snow for the mountains and plains. However, there are still
discrepancies between models and model runs on the track and
evolution of the upper level low. Since yesterday, guidance has
trended towards a faster track, so we could see precipitation by
early this weekend, as well as an earlier arrival of cold air for
Saturday. Forecast highs have trended down in this period, with
potential for highs to only be in the 20s and 30s, with Sunday
having the higher probabilities of the coldest temperatures. Stay
tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 448 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

A band of showers is currently visible on radar stretching from
south of KAPA to Washington County. While the heaviest
precipitation is expected to remain east of the TAF sites, both
KDEN and KAPA are sitting just northwest of the northern flank of
these showers. With the strongest lift associated with tonight`s
passing system expected for the next few hours as the center of
the upper level low lifts across northeast Colorado, and the close
proximity of the current precipitation to both TAF sites, have
kept the PROB30 in place at KDEN and increased to a TEMPO at KAPA
as there have already been a few light showers there over the past
few hours. While these showers may not push northwest enough to
make it to KDEN, if they do, we could see CIG drop down as low as
4,000 feet AGL. Once the low moves northeast by 5/6Z tonight,
precipitation chances will decrease and skies will gradually clear
out from west to east.

For Monday, confidence is low on wind direction at this time, but
they are at least looking to remain generally light through the
afternoon at KDEN and KAPA, with stronger winds expected at KBJC
as some mountain wave enhancement is expected to bring gusty
westerly winds into the Front Range Foothills and adjacent plains
by late afternoon. As of now, guidance suggests some of the gusts
will start to move farther east into KAPA by the end of the TAF
period, with a few increased gusts possible at KDEN by the
evening, but still forecast to remain under 15 kts through the
evening at KDEN, and between 20-25 kts at KBJC.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...9