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000
FXUS65 KBOU 170956
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
356 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES NORTH TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY AND PULL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN COLORADO. AIRMASS
ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS WILL BE DRY AND WILL MIXED DOWN ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND CAUSE DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO TO
30S. EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY WEST OF I-25...STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THE STORMS
WILL WEAK AND PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.

OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND DEW POINTS WILL
BE ABLE TO STAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THESE DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL PRODUCE CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION TO THE GOOD INSTABILITY...EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW
SUPER CELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING HIGHEST EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND CAPE (AT OR ABOVE
1500 J/KG0 FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING DRY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH JUST A SLGT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
PAC NW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE AND THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTN WILL DROP. THE
END RESULT WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AREAS OVER SOUTH PARK...THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIEST. THE MDLS HINT AT SOME COOLING
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT DECREASING. IN ADDITION...THERE
IS A HINT OF SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CLIPPING SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF CO ON SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SUNDAY...THE MDLS
ALSO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE
NERN PLAINS AROUND 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 12Z AND THEY SHIFT TO THE
EAST BY 18Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
AND BE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THEM MOVING
INTO THE DENVER AREA AND WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE BURN SCARS. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AND THE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT 15 TO 25 MPH. THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BURN AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
ZERO.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...MEIER