RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
000 FXUS65 KBOU 202136 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 235 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...NEXT SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITH BETTER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WARM AGAIN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW TODAYS HIGHS. ENOUGH COLD AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NOTED LATE IN THE DAY TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW AROUND RABBIT EARS PASS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL SATURDAY EVENING. .LONG TERM...THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHILE PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE CONTAINED IN THIS SYSTEM...ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWERING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS A SECOND EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM RACES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THE NOSE OF A +140KT PACIFIC JET. MODELS ARE STILL DIVERGING ON THIS SYSTEM WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT SEEMS AS THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO FAST AND MORE CONFIDENCE IS BEING PLACED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH PULLS THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST MORE TOWARD THIS WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW WILL SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW OCCURRING ON MONDAY. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...COULD SEE VERY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY AND FOOTHILLS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER KANSAS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 MPH THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP REVISITING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR BETTER CONFIDENCE. A THIRD SHORTWAVE COULD BRUSH NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER THE EC IS NOW PUSHING THIS FURTHER EAST. AGAIN...WILL HAVE TO KEEP REVIEWING THE SOLUTIONS RUN TO RUN. ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WARMER AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. && .AVIATION...VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 20 THOUSAND FEET. TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS AND SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. $$ BARJENBRUCH/KRIEDERMAN
