Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 160933
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH DENVER AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATE QG
DESCENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE
NORTHERN BORDER. MUCH OF THIS WILL DECREASE BY 15Z. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
BORDER THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE NERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...THE QPF GENERATED BY MUCH OF THE MDLS IS
FORECAST TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...HAVE LOWERED THE POPS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. BEST CHC OF SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE IN ZONES
36...37 AND 41. DO NOT ANTICIPATED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

BY 12Z THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE EAST OF
COLORADO. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR THURSDAY AND
WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER AIR WILL BE QUICKER TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO FRIDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF COLORADO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS. PLAN ON KEEPING LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE STATE BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE. THIS WILL PUMP WARM AND DRY AIR INTO THE
STATE. COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 80 ON TUESDAY IF ENOUGH WARM AIR IS
TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NXT SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE
DENVER AREA THIS MORNING. N-NWLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z
THEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NELY. SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO
GENERATE MUCH PCPN OVER THE DENVER AREA BUT WEAK UPSLOPE IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER KBJC AND
KAPA...WL KEEP VCSH AT KDEN THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD SEE BKN
CIGS 040-060 AGL AFTER 21-22Z. AS WINDS BECOME SELY THIS
EVENING...MAY SEE CIGS START TO IMPROVE IN THE DENVER AREA AS THE
FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH,.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...COOPER



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