Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 311026
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER COLORADO WILL DELIVER ANOTHER DRY
AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR THE END OF THE MONTH. SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLIP OVER THE RIDGE AND PRODUCE CIRRUS CLOUDS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER THING TO LOOK OUT FOR
IS SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN
SHOWING AN AREA OF STRATUS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALL NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD REACH SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES BY 6 AM. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS ARE DOWN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS...SO WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IF
STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH PLATTE VALLEY BETWEEN FORT MORGAN
AND GREELEY...THEN IT MAY GET DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN DENVER METRO
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO INDUCE A DENVER CYCLONE WHICH WILL
KEEP ADVECTING COOL AIR FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON HIGHS COOLER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS EVENING SHOULD SEE NO IMPACT FROM THE
WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES COOL FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LATE EVENING READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE WRN US ON SAT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS LEAVES NRN CO IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE IN THE MTNS BY AFTN.  WITH
DECENT LAPSE RATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE.  OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE
DRY WITH A SFC LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  THUS SHOULD SEE WARMER
TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH READINGS RANGING FM THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

ON SUN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL SPLIT AS ONE
PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTS NNE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE A SECOND
PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAVE NRN CO
IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE MTNS.
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH SOME MINOR MID LVL ASCENT BY AFTN
WILL LEAD TO A CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE MTNS AND HIGHR VALLEYS. OVER
NERN CO THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLY
A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA NR THE WY BORDER BY LATE AFTN. AS FOR HIGHS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH SLIGHT COOLING IN THE 850-700
MB LYR WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  COMBINATION
OF MID LVL ASCENT AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD
CHC OF PCPN IN THE MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS.  OROGRAPHICS ARE WK THRU
THE PERIOD SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE MTNS WILL PROBABLY STAY GENERALLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES COULD RECEIVE ADVISORY
AMOUNTS.  OVER NERN CO A COLD FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO AROUND 700 MB BASED
ON CURRENT GFS.  AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LVL
ASCENT MOVE ACROSS ON MON ONE WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHC
OF PCPN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
WELL.  SOUNDINGS FM THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE PCPN FALLING MOSTLY AS SNOW
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON MON WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER AND KEEPS PCPN
MOSTLY RAIN.  AS FOR HIGHS ON MON WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE OVER NERN CO ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COLDER IF ECMWF IS
CORRECT.

BY MON NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA WITH PCPN ENDING EARLY MON EVENING IN MOST AREAS.  BY TUE DRIER
AIR IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PCPN.  WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S OVER NERN CO.

FOR WED AND THU A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH
DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.  850-700 MB TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 5 DEGEES ON
WED AND THEN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON THU.  THUS HIGHS SHOULD RISE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NERN CO ON WED AND THEN FROM 65 TO 70
ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN DRAINAGE
SOUTHERLIES AND EASTERLIES AS A DENVER CYCLONE TRIES TO DEVELOP.
LATER TODAY SHOULD SEE THE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST...AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE MATURES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE DENVER AREA ARE CURRENTLY
LARGE ENOUGH THAT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...COOLER
AND MOISTER AIR IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY...IN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY FROM BETWEEN GREELEY AND FORT MORGAN EASTWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS COULD DEVELOP IN THE RIVER
VALLEY AND THEN MOVE INTO KDEN FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF VCFG IN THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RPK
AVIATION...DANKERS



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