794
FXUS63 KEAX 091731
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1131 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well-below normal temperatures expected for the next few days
    *Coldest day: today - highs in the 30s
    *Coldest morning: Monday - lows in the upper teens to low 20s

- Much warmer conditions return by Tuesday and through the remainder
of the week.
*Widespread high temperatures in the 70s by Friday

- Precip chances (20-40%) return next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

We have officially entered our cold snap with much cooler conditions
anticipated for today through the start of next week. A closed upper
low that remains situated just to the southeast of the Hudson Bay
continues to push shortwaves through the flow over our area. Stout
mid to upper level ridging remains over the west coast. At the
surface, a low has tracked to our east over IN and a surface high
transits to the southeast from Saskatchewan. As a result of our area
being sandwiched between these two surface features, an increased
pressure gradient has yielded wind gusts ranging from 20-35 mph.
With winds out of the north/northwest behind the surface low, stout
cold air advection has allowed temperatures this morning to sink
into the upper 20s to low 30s and wind chill values into the teens.
Chances for snow flurries this morning have significantly diminished
although still cannot be completely ruled out. An H700 disturbance
within the circulation of the closed upper low near the Hudson Bay
collocated with just enough moisture could yield a few snow flurries
mainly for northeast MO. Better chances for snow flurries stays
farther to the east, but will still be very low impact. Through the
afternoon, highs today will only reach the mid to upper 30s. The
surface high continues to track to the south this afternoon into
tonight allowing winds to weaken. Clouds will also clear out by this
evening, setting the stage for efficient radiational cooling. This
will result in temperatures sinking into the upper teens to low 20s
Monday morning (which will be the coldest temperatures of the season
so far).

Late Monday into Tuesday as the surface high moves to our southeast,
winds shift out of the south sparking a warming trend. Early morning
lows for Tuesday will be warmer than the previous morning, but still
range mostly in the 20s with the KC Metro near freezing.
Temperatures will soar into the 60s by Tuesday afternoon as mid to
upper level ridging continues its track to east leading to mid-level
height rises. This warming trend will continue bringing widespread
70 degree high temperatures by Friday. The influence of the mid to
upper level ridge will stave off precip chances until next weekend.
As the ridge begins to shift to the east of the area this weekend, a
dynamic mid to upper trough transiting through the central/southern
Plains will bring precip chances to our area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area through
the TAF period. Existing low-VFR deck expected to continue to
gradually lift and dissipate through the day. Existing
breezy/gusty NW winds, gusts to mid 20s kts, will continue as
well, easing around/after 00z. Overnight, winds to remain
sustained out of the NW to around 10 kts, with occasional gusts
into the teens kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Collier