427
FXUS63 KEAX 152326
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue into Wednesday. Highs will
  range in the mid 80s to low 90s.

- A few chances for widely scattered storms (20-30%) on Monday
  afternoon/evening to scattered showers and storms (up to
  40%)on Tuesday afternoon/evening. No severe weather expected.

- An unsettled pattern arrives Wednesday with better chances for
  more widespread showers and storms through the end of the
  work-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Today, the axis of the upper level ridge that brought the well above
normal temperatures to the area this weekend has slid just east of
the area. However, the area will remain under its influence allowing
temperatures to continue to move well above normal with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Also, today, a slow moving upper level
trough is digging through the central Rockies. Several lead
shortwaves will eject out ahead of the the main upper trough this
evening through Tuesday bringing the chance for widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms (20-30%) this evening/tonight and again
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. A few of these storms today
could be capable of producing localized gusty winds across central
Missouri where models suggest afternoon/evening instability could
reach 2000/3000J/Kg of MUCAPE. However, widespread severe weather is
not anticipated due to very weak shear. Storms on Tuesday are not
expected to be strong to severe despite temperatures again moving
well above normal with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

The extended forecast continues to look unsettled as the
aforementioned upper level trough over the central Rockies will move
out into the High Plains. As it does, it will develop a closed low
in the base of the trough further slowing its already slow eastward
progression. This upper level trough will then slowly move across
the central/northern Plains Wednesday through Saturday allowing for
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through that period.
Fortunately, recent dry conditions will preclude any flooding
concerns and severe weather is not anticipated. This upper trough
will also help usher in a cold front on Wednesday. This in tandem
with the storms and cloud cover will cool conditions off. Highs on
Wednesday will still rise into the mid 80s to low 90s ahead of the
front however, highs will cool to the mid 70s to lower 80s for the
rest of the forecast period (through next weekend).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

TAF sites expected to be VFR through much of the current TAF
period, with light and variable winds prevailing. By
around/after 18z Tuesday, scattered convection is anticipated,
not dissimilar to today but centered a couple/few counties
westward. That brings all 4 TAF sites potentially into or just
west of the forecast activity. With that in mind, have PROB30s
at all sites to account for time period of greatest likelihood.
Short-lived visibility reductions, strong winds, and small hail
to be the primary hazards.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis