869
FXUS63 KEAX 031734
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming Trend Through Mid Week

- Gusty Winds on Tuesday

- Dry Forecast Until Late Thursday Through Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Mid-level troughs are now east of the area, allowing a general mid-
level ridging to take control of the weather pattern across the
Plains into the western Great Lakes. Primary H5 ridge axis is
situated from southern Texas into the Ozarks Region, with a
secondary H5 height maxima located over the Rockies. This has
promoted surface anticyclone development over the Gulf Region and
another over much of the High Plains and Front Range. This regime is
providing subsidence and the clear skies early this morning and will
continue through the early afternoon hours. This allows for plenty
of insolation this afternoon that should send temperatures into the
lower and mid 60s across much of the region. There are two PV
anomalies currently present that will work to deamplify the mid-
level ridge pattern through this week, but will continue to push the
axis of warmer air eastward. The first PV anomaly if promoting
general troughing just off the coast in the Pacific Northwest
region, with another one promoting a short-wave trough over the
Intermountain West. Heading into the evening hours tonight, the
short-wave trough should send dCVA into the Front Range, kicking of
a lee cyclogenesis process. This should shift low-level flow south
to southwesterly across the Plains and lower Missouri River Valley
through the evening, providing continued WAA while developing brisk
zonal mid-level flow.

Tuesday morning the short-wave trough lifts northeastward toward the
Nebraska Sandhills and also sends the developing surface low toward
the northeast. The surface anticyclone gets pushed east of the
Mississippi River Valley, but will lead to strong pressure gradient
across much of the area. This is expected to create gusty south to
southwesterly winds on Tuesday afternoon with gusts between 25 and
30 MPH possible. Current ensemble probabilities are indicating over
a 90 percent chance for wind gusts above 20 MPH, and over 60 percent
for gusts of at least 25 MPH. These probabilities start to drop off
with a threshold of 30 MPH. While there may be some lift, with the
cyclone passing off to the northwest of the area, the overall
forcing will be fairly nebulous through Tuesday. Therefore, the
forecast will remain dry. Ensemble probabilities for measurable
rainfall into Tuesday afternoon remain less than 10 percent for the
entire forecast area. Southwesterly surface flow will continue to
promote WAA, and if there is any potential for mixing, could see
temperatures reach the lower 70s. Wednesday, surface low continues
northeast toward the northern Great Lakes Region. As this occurs,
deeper troughing works into the Pacific Northwest, resulting in an
H5 ridge axis toward the northern Rockies and promotes surface
anticyclone development in the northern High Plains. This is progged
to push east-southeastward, reinforcing northwesterly flow behind
the exiting cyclone. Stronger cold front is progged to move out of
the northern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Depending on
the timing of the front, Wednesday could be another day of upper 60s
to lower 70s if the front stalls prior to peak heating. Conditions
could be cooler if the thermal boundary propagates at a faster
speed. Amongst NBM members, the spread is about 10F between the 25th
and 75th percentiles for high temperatures, with most locations
seeing a range from 62F to 72F. Although there will be convergence
along the front, current guidance depicts fairly low moisture ahead
of it, with dewpoints progged into the mid to upper 40s. Therefore,
forecast remains dry through Wednesday. Ensemble probabilities remain
at less than 10 percent for measurable rainfall on Wednesday.

By Thursday morning, front and surface anticyclone should push
through the region. Deterministic solutions though are depicting a
mid-level short-wave to drive across the Central CONUS which may be
enough to deliver brisk zonal flow, and perhaps even H5 height falls
heading into the late evening hours of Thursday. A secondary vort
max over the southern Plains helps provides dCVA over Texas that
generates a surface cyclone, and helps provides low-level southerly
flow late Thursday into Friday morning. This southerly flow
eventually pushes a warm front back northward, and may have better
moisture transport than the preceding disturbances from earlier in
the work week. Axis of forcing is currently depicted across central
and eastern Missouri late Thursday into Friday. Deterministic
solutions have continued to depict an eastward shift in rain
activity, and ensemble probabilities have held steady with most
favorable location east of Hwy. 65. A few ensembles attempt to pull
some activity further west toward the KC metro, but those solutions
are against current trends with the system for the end of the week.
Flow becomes northwesterly through the middle of next weekend, which
will bring cooler temperatures. There may be some more opportunities
for rain, but current probabilities favor the adequate moisture axis
east of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure
builds into the region. However, clouds will increase this evening,
with a high/broken deck expected through the overnight hours.
The northeasterly wind today will transition to east overnight,
and then become southwesterly by sunrise Tuesday. Wind will
increase with this shift, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected
through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Myers