488
FXUS63 KEAX 231728
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More patchy fog this morning with areas of dense fog expected.
Thickest fog expected south of the MO River as well as far NE MO.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the early week.

- Rain is expected on Monday. Time of arrival has shifted later with
rain likely starting around sunrise continuing through early Tuesday.

- The Thanksgiving holiday continues to remain cold and dry.
  Could see some weather the following weekend, but most impacts
  look to the east of the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Upper level ridging and overall subsidence opened up skies allowing
sunshine to return yesterday. Clear skies overnight have enabled
temperatures to cool fairly rapidly towards the dew points. Normally
this combination of ridging, radiational cooling, and low level
saturation create a potent setup for fog; however, winds have been
just strong enough through the night so fa to keep widespread fog
from forming. Winds looks as though they are beginning to settle and
we are also seen a shield of low stratus slowly work its way
northward from the south. This will result in lowered visibilities
across areas south of the MO River. Across far NE MO, radiational
cooling and relatively calm winds have allowed fog to form across
the area. Patchy dense spots (<1/4 mile) are possible within this
area as well. Winds become a bit more turbulent, albeit still light,
which may be enough to break up some of the fog before sunrise
across northern MO. For areas south of the river, low hanging
stratus delays warming and break up of the fog keeping fog around
slightly longer this morning. Winds eventually shift southerly
promoting slight warm advection keeping the above average
temperatures through the early week. Slowly decaying stratus might
curtail initial high temperature forecasts slightly; however, most
area should reach into the high 50s to near 60 degrees.

Meanwhile, a deep cyclone across the SW CONUS will be our catalyst
for showers during the day Monday. The track of the system has
shifted a bit northward and much slower. This has delayed the
expected onset of rain from early Monday morning to moreso around
sunrise. High resolution guidance has started coming into range and
is painting a picture similar to earlier expectations that being
widespread light rainfall with embedded heavier downpours. While
this shift has put the jet streak in a little more favorable
position for more robust rainfall, the low looks to become
vertically stacked across western KS quickly disorganizing vertical
structure and disrupting the flow of warm air and moister into the
region. This keeps more convective potential across the Ozarks and
areas southwest resulting in our area experiencing a more gentle
rainfall much like what we saw a couple days ago. That said, there
is a small window Monday afternoon across central MO where increased
coverage of heavier rainfall is possible. Expected rainfall totals
sit around 0.1 to 0.5 inches north to south with locally higher
amounts possible. Antecedent dry conditions, though recently
moistened, do limit flooding potential to more ponding and runoff
into area creeks and streams.

Cold dry air advances in the wake of this low pressure keeping the
second half of the holiday week cold, but dry. Wednesday`s highs,
while decreased significantly from the past week, are just below
seasonal averages for this time of year. Extended guidance still
shows the potential for an impactful storm system traversing the
CONUS for the post-Thanksgiving weekend. Guidance hints at showers
returning Friday through Sunday; however, the system looks to become
much more organized to the east of the region keeping the (local)
post holiday travel outlook optimistic. Many variables and
uncertainties persist as guidance remains divergent on the system`s
track and evolution. These uncertainties will be refined with
forthcoming data and forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Starting to see ceiling improvement for northern third of
Missouri and visibilities are finally climbing above 1/4 mile.
There is still a stratus deck and lower visibilities from the KC
metro and southward with some IFR observations still occurring.
While the stratus south of the KC metro may not completely
clear, we should see improving visibility, and perhaps ceilings
can get back to the lower of MVFR. However, unfavorable aviation
conditions late tonight and remain in place of Monday as
boundary moves through and brings rain with low ceilings, and
may also have fog before the precipitation starts. Expecting an
extended period late tonight through much of Monday for IFR
conditions from eastern Kansas to central Missouri.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ021>025-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Krull