Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 060504
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1204 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Quiet, dry conditions will continue tonight and Friday as surface
high pressure drifts across the region; and warmer temperatures in
the low 80s are anticipated Friday afternoon as southwesterly flow
begins to return on the back side of the departing low and thermal
ridging bulges eastward across the Plains.

The primary focus remains the thunderstorm chances this weekend as
southwesterly flow returns aloft and moisture returns to the region.
Specifics are still a bit up in the air due to model differences of
small scale features, but storms are expected to focus in three main
periods this weekend and into early next week. First, a warm front
will set up somewhere between northern MO and central IA on Saturday
morning, then will stall and eventually slowly sink southward across
the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will develop along
the boundary and traverse the CWA slowly on Saturday, and a few
could become strong where shear is locally enhanced in the vicinity
of the front. Timing, location, and severity of these storms will
depend on the starting position of the front and how quickly it
sinks southward, but most models indicate that the majority of the
CWA will start out in the warm sector and build a decent amount of
instability before fropa, indicating that both low-level shear and
CAPE should be adequate for a few organized/strong storms.

On Sunday, the aforementioned front should wash out as surface low
pressure deepens across the High Plains and flow ahead of the trough
turns southerly in response, bringing our forecast area firmly into
the warm sector Sunday through Sunday night. A few scattered storms
are possible especially after sunset Sunday evening as isentropic
lift increases, but should not become strong without deep layer
shear or a good forcing mechanism for convection. These nocturnal
storms could junk up the atmosphere on Monday and prevent much
instability from developing, but a round of more robust storms is
still expected Monday evening through Monday night as a shortwave
trough pushes the cold front/dryline sitting over the High Plains
eastward. Isolated storms should develop in a fairly unadulterated
environment west of our forecast area, and will become more numerous
and less organized as they translate east, likely transitioning any
strong/severe storm threat to wind and perhaps some small hail. This
scenario could change if the timing of the shortwave trough changes
dramatically, but has been fairly consistent over the last several
days.

Thunderstorm chances will temporarily end Tuesday after the
departure of this system, but should return quickly as another
trough pushes into the region mid- to late-week. Temperatures
through the weekend and into next week will be moderated by cloud
cover and precipitation, but should remain warm with lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s, and highs in the 70s or 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

Expect winds to switch to the south-southwest Friday morning as high
pressure moves off to the east.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...MJ



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