Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 302321
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 348 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Tonight- Monday Night...

Main concern will be fog potential overnight and the extent of
stratocu through Sunday. Otherwise, rather benign weather with
overall seasonal temperatures...starting out cooler than average over
the weekend and then warming up for the start of next week.

Satellite imagery suggests large closed upper system centered over
the OH Valley has retrograded as far west as it will go. Models
begin to finally lift it northeast and out of our hair tomorrow.
However, extensive low clouds circulating cyclonically around this
system will still pinwheel southwest overnight and linger into
Sunday morning. Temperatures will plummet where skies remain clear
and as they approach or cross over the afternoon dewpoint
temperatures fog could begin to form. Believe the far southwest CWA
is the best candidate for fog.

Could see some sprinkles over northeast MO Saturday afternoon,
otherwise, looking dry.

As the closed upper low moves out an upper ridge will shift east,
allowing some warm air advection to lift northeast for Monday and
Tuesday.

Tuesday - Friday...

Medium range models track a large energetic mid/upper level trough
through the Rockies and lift it northeast through the
Central/Northern Plains Tuesday through Wednesday night. This will
bring us our first chance at any meaningful rain in about 2 weeks.
However, have noticed a trend in the ECMWF and GFS in that they
both are lifting the system further north and west. Since the
associated cold front will be nearly parallel to the upper flow if
this trend holds it would likely mean a delay in the onset of
convection and probably a reduction in QPF. In collaboration with
adjacent offices have started this slower trend by lowering PoPs on
Tuesday and delaying the eastward extent Tuesday night. Will need to
see if this trend continues in the models.

Once the cold front exits to the east we should see only a slight
cooling as maritime Pacific air moves in so temperatures should be
close to seasonal values.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the evening with increased
northeasterly winds weakening after sunset. MVFR stratus will arrive
from the northwest overnight. This may limit the potential for fog
formation in the early morning. Areas not influenced by the stratus
deck will likely see areas of fog, thus will need to monitor the
progression of stratus layer through the evening. For now, have
excluded mention in forecast, with the exception of KSTJ. Cloud
cover will likely linger through much of Saturday, with gradually
improving ceiling heights through the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...Welsh


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