Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 312348
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 202 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Not surprisingly...main concern with the afternoon package remains
an unseasonably cool airmass that has now descended over the region.
Temps this afternoon struggling to reach the middle 40s with latest
VIS satellite showing clear skies aloft. Looking upstream this
morning at temps across the northern Plains...felt compelled to lower
temps a few degrees from tonight/s inherited forecast. That
said...overnight lows should fall into the lower to middle 20s...with
a few upper teens not out of question. Freeze warning remains in
effect from 10 PM tonight through 9 AM Saturday.

By tomorrow...winds should begin to veer to the southeast as sfc
ridging begins sliding east. As this occurs...850-hPa temps will
begin rising slightly which combined with ample sunshine...should
allow afternoon highs to rebound into the middle to upper 40s. Dry
conditions Saturday night will be followed by another dry day on
Sunday with even warmer temps expected /mid- upper 50s/ as warm air
advection increases across the lower Missouri Vly. Warm front to begin
lifting northeast towards the area Sunday night with combined with a
straightening low-level jet will set the stage for developing light
shower activity across western portions of the forecast area early
Monday. Main synoptic scale cold front to bare down on the region by
Monday afternoon as large scale upper trough ejects out of the
Rockies. Latest forecast soundings show little to no instability
present however will maintain an isolated thunder mention across the
western third of the forecast area through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

By mid day on Monday into Monday evening widespread rain is expected
across the entire forecast area. PWAT values look to be on the high
side, especially for this late into the year, as forecast PWAT
values could jump to the 1-1.5 inch range. This will bring a rather
prime atmosphere for efficient rain through the early part of next
week. Given that the mid level trough will be rather progressive, as
will the attendant surface front it doesn`t look like the rain will
stick around very long. By Tuesday morning the dry air and large
scale subsidence will move in and dry the area out, from west to
east. When all is said and done it`s possible that a majority of the
area could see between 0.5 inch and 1.5 inches of rain between
Monday and Tuesday. The areas with the best chance for over an inch
will be south of Interstate 70, with areas north of I-70 getting
perhaps a half inch to an inch of rain. Thereafter, through the
week, dry and seasonable conditions will remain. The next shot for
rain could approach the area toward the end of next week per the
ECMWF, but with model solutions differing in that solution will
avoid putting much mention of rain into that portion of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals for the next 24 hours.
Only issue to watch will be a wind shift as the center of the surface
high slides through the region overnight. This will bring the light
and varible wind overnight back to the south Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Leighton
AVIATION...Cutter






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