Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 300456
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1156 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.Update...
Issued at 815 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Have made significant changes to the PoP and cloud forecasts,
especially for the rest of this evening. The small late afternoon
cluster of storms that moved through east central KS and extreme west
central MO has dissipated and left behind a relatively stable
environment as subsidence in its wake has completely dissipated any
of the cu field. Lacking a boundary to focus convection have removed
PoPs from all but the far northwest portion of MO where east central
NE activity could eventually cross into. Monitoring upstream
convection near OMA to see if it can generate a sufficiently large
enough cold pool to maintain activity with the loss of heating after
sunset.

Otherwise, short term models including convective allowing models
continue to have their issues in being overly generous in convective
development. Not overly sold on convection after midnight. Not seeing
the mid level isentropic ascent the 18z NAM projects over western MO on
the 310K surface. 18z GFS and latest RAP show no lift at mid levels
over this area. They both show lift a corridor of ascent on the 305K
surface more tied to the h8 level. While confidence is low on
overnight convection too risky to remove completely so will hold onto
slight and low-end chance PoPs.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

A remnant MCV from overnight convection across western Kansas is
approaching northeastern Kansas as of early Wednesday afternoon and
could be the triggering mechanism for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. These storms will overspread the KC
metro by the late afternoon and early evening hours. With MUCAPE
values near 1500 J/kg and bulk shear values near 30kts, there is
some support of an isolated strong to perhaps severe storm before
sunset. Favorable winds aloft for severe storms rapidly decrease
south of the Missouri River, thus the window of any significant
storms will be relatively short as this feature pushes to the
southeast of the metro by 00Z. The main impact should these storms
continue to build will be isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.

Once this activity clears the CWA this evening, a second round of
activity will affect the area along a frontal boundary positioned
near the Missouri River. A weak shortwave feature will intersect
this feature and be the focus for scattered thunderstorms until
sunrise. Not anticipating anything severe with this activity but
some storms may produce heavy rainfall at times. By the early to
late morning, there may be a brief break in the activity before a
deepening shortwave trough sweeps through the upper Mississippi
Valley by Thursday afternoon. This will send a weak surface cold
front across the area extending from northeast Missouri to west
central Missouri. The environment should be able to more readily
destabilize compared to Wednesday to support an isolated severe hail
and wind threat. The area of focus will be along and ahead of the
cold front until Thursday evening.

A dry air mass will settle into areas north of the Missouri River
Friday morning as high pressure sinks down into the area behind the
cold front. This will be short lived, however, as a steady surge of
moisture enters the region from the Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorm
chances will thus begin to increase again Friday afternoon and
evening with continued widespread coverage well into the holiday
weekend. A quasi-stationary boundary near the I-70 corridor will
intersect the moisture transport from the south by Saturday. Winds
aloft will support continued ascent atop the moisture advecting
across the stalled boundary. There is still some uncertainty with
the location of where the boundary will be established, though
preliminary rain totals ranging from 3 to 5 inches are possible
throughout the weekend in areas surrounding the frontal boundary.
Temperatures, on the other hand, north of the boundary will peak in
the low 70s Saturday, approximately 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

The active pattern will begin to settle by the early week as weak
ridging will approach the Central Plains from the west. This may
help to clear out residual precipitation and storms for the evening
of the 4th of July.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Vast majority of the time expect VFR conditions. Isolated to widely
scattered elevated convection with ceilings aoa 8k ft possible over
most of the region overnight. No boundaries to focus on so hit and
miss type convection.

Convective complex streaking southeast through central and northeast
NE is expected to weaken considerably overnight possibly reaching
northwest MO towards daybreak. Isolated convection possible during
afternoon while scattered convection expected to form along a cold
front as it enters northern MO around 00Z. This boundary will push
south during the evening hours with convection remaining tied to it.
MVFR ceilings possible with the stronger storms.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Update...MJ
Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...MJ


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