Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260501
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1201 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Tonight - Sunday:

Main challenge will be another night where we will be dealing with
fog in parts of the CWA and then summer-like high temperatures. Weak
high pressure nosing into northern MO will push no further overnight
with plenty of residual moisture around to aid in fog and stratus
formation. Latest SREF visibility prog and WRF Simulated GOES-R
product favor fog forming from southern NE into west central MO and
see no reason for it not to form. Main question is whether or not
dense fog will form. Light southeast winds vs near calm winds last
night suggests any dense fog should be patchy vs widespread.

Inspection of NAM/GFS Bufr soundings and NAM/GFS/ECMWF 925mb
condensation pressure deficits also support a band of stratus
forming north of a warm front which is progged to lie from north
central KS into central MO by 12z Sunday. As the warm front lifts
north the attendant cloud cover will likewise head north but
probably break up with time. Should the cloud cover linger into the
afternoon then current max temperature forecast over northern MO may
be too optimistic. Otherwise, falling heights spreading eastward
from the Central High Plains ahead of an upper trough plowing into
the Rockies will send a surge of strong warm air advection into the
CWA. +22C to +24C air at 925mb will enter into the southwestern
CWA which could threaten the record high for Kansas City which is 87
degrees.

Monday/Monday Night:

The above mentioned Rockies upper trough will continue eastward on
Monday with weak impulses aloft embedded in the southwest flow
zipping northeast from the Southern Rockies through the Mid MO
Valley. NAM/GFS/ECMWF models are similar in handling these features
and the associated cold front which will slide through the CWA.
Scattered light convection possible with the coverage increasing
further southeast as it will take some time for the modified gulf
moisture to work its way northeast. So, will maintain the northwest
to southeast stratification of PoPs. One more day of much above
average temperatures expected.

Tuesday - Saturday:

The upper trough will be amplifying early in the period as it tracks
through the Great Lakes. Although moderately strong cold air
advection will make its presence known temperatures on Tuesday
through Thursday will only revert back to where we should be for
late October. Both days should be dry.

The extratropical remains of Ana in the form of a loosely held
together shortwave trough will dive southeast from the Northern
Rockies in response to the upper ridge reforming over the
intermountain region. Always need to be aware of systems traveling
within northwest flow and believe there is a need to at least add
slight chance PoPs for Wednesday night as increasing PVA wrings out
the mid level moisture. The passage of the upper trough axis will
mark the arrival of much drier and colder air as Canadian high
pressure swoops in. By Saturday morning sub-freezing morning
temperatures could threaten northern MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Little change in forecast with TAF package. Initially VFR before
MVFR conditions during the early morning hours. Short-term models
continue to suggest drier air mass behind boundary to settle near/just
south of the KC Metro area, with the greatest potential for dense fog
just west/south of terminals. Sites have a better chance for low
stratus near the MVFR/IFR category as opposed to fog, beginning 09Z
and mixing out around 16Z, with IXD being the exception to see a
better shot at IFR fog and perhaps STJ with local terrain effects.
Cannot completely rule out periodic IFR conditions from shallow fog
or stratus, but predictability would appear too low for prevailing
forecast at this time. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds expected
tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...Blair






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