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000 FXUS63 KEAX 211726 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1126 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... DENSE FOG WILL BE THE SHORT TERM PROBLEM AS MUCH OF NORTHERN MO IS EXPERIENCING VISIBILITIES A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FOG LIFTS TO FORM A STRATUS DECK. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW CLOUD DECK TIED TO DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH FROM TX/OK/AR. A WEAK W-E SURFACE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CWA DIVIDES DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART TO DAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHES EAST AND DISPLACES THE RIDGE...THUS ALLOWING THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN MO. SPECIAL FOG LOOP SUGGESTS THE DENSE FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIKELY TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. BY THIS TIME THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE WORKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN MO. THE NET EFFECT IS SUNSHINE COULD BE IN SHORT SUPPLY TODAY. MAX TEMPERATURES REFLECT THIS IDEA. LATEST SREF SURFACE VISIBILITY PROBABILITY PROG WHICH CORRECTLY FORECAST THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG IS SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT OVER THE NW 1/4 OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD FIT WITH THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE NOW OVER CENTRAL OK ADVECTING NNE ACROSS KS AND EVENTUALLY NW MO. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY DURING THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN A STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER WAVE NOW OVER EASTERN TX. THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY TO FALL IN OUR CWA. THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT ANIMAL AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST WITH A NEGATIVE TILT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/SREF/GEM ALL CLOSE OFF THE UPPER CIRCULATION MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND GENERAL DEPICTION OF THE UPPER WAVE. EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND THE 06Z MODEL RUN IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO SHOWING THIS SAME CONSISTENCY SHOULD ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. MJ && .AVIATION... FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A VFR STRATOCU CLOUD DECK PREVAILED ACR THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS NOTED IN SERN KS...AHEAD OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE ERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK DUE TO THE HIGHER STRATOCU DECK. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE MVFR CLOUD DECK MAY CLIP THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. REGARDLESS...THE MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH A MVFR STRATOCU/AC SCT- BKN DECK. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS...BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND MODEST WINDS...IFR FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...ANY MVFR WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFT SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUN MORNING. DB .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
