Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 071123
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
523 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CST WED DEC 7 2016

Mid-level clouds around 10kft have begun to filter into the area
producing light returns on the radar this morning. However, a very
dry sub cloud layer will limit anything that is falling as virga. As
we move through the morning hours though, top-down saturation will
occur eventually becoming moist enough for snow to reach the
surface. However, a lack of moisture and weak lift will keep any
accumulations minor. These minor accumulations will be observed
south of a MCI to Boonville line where a tenth of an inch to just
short of an inch is expected with the southern CWA seeing the heavier
amounts. This system will be a quick hitter with snow developing as
early as late morning and exiting the area by late this evening.

Expect strong cold air advection in the wake of this system ushering
in the coldest temperatures of the season tonight. Expect lows
tonight in the low to mid teens. Strong cold advection will continue
into Thursday keeping temperatures cold with highs in the low to mid
20s. Factoring in the wind chill values, temperatures will feel like
the single digits tonight and the teens on Thursday. Thursday night
the wind will subside as high pressure begins to build into the
region. This will make for very good radiational cooling and
consequently temperatures will drop into the upper single digits and
lower teens. Surface high pressure then remains over the area Friday
keeping highs in the mid 20s to near 30.

Warm air advection will get underway Friday night and Saturday
allowing for a more seasonal day on Saturday with highs in the mid
30s to lower 40s. This will be short-lived however, as a cold front
will move through the area Saturday night bringing the chance for
rain changing over to snow. Very minor snow accumulations may be
expected by Sunday. Highs Sunday and Monday will range in the upper
20s to the north to upper 30s south. Models then depict another
quick moving system moving through the area on Tuesday which may
again produce light snow and bring another round of cold
temperatures to the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST WED DEC 7 2016

VFR conds are expected to cont thru the TAF pd altho there will be a
chance for some lgt snow in the vc of IXD. Clouds around 8-10kft will
lower as we go thru the morning with cigs dropping to 5kft (3500 at
IXD) by late morning. The best window for snow in the vc will be
between 18Z-21Z however snow will be light and no restrictions are
expected. Expect cigs to lift back to 10kft this evening with just
some sct high clouds by tonight. Winds will be out of the NNW this
morning between 5-10kts before back to the NW this afternoon. Winds
will increase out of the NW tonight to btn 10-15kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73



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