Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 291100
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
600 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

The well advertised heavy rain event is getting underway early this
morning. Heavy rain with training cells are falling south of the
area, to the north of a stationary boundary extending
from southeastern Missouri back into the northwestern Arkansas and
further west into southern Oklahoma. A southerly LLJ is overriding
this boundary and providing a influx of Gulf moisture into the
region. This influx of Gulf moisture is expected to persist through
the day with moderate to heavy rain expected across the southern CWA
where a flash flood watch exists. Further north, light to moderate
rain will persist through much of today as lead shortwaves eject
out from a main trough which will move from the Four Corners region
into the Texas Panhandle. Tonight, another southerly LLJ will
strengthen and nose into central Missouri overriding the stationary
boundary which will have lifted northward across southern Missouri.
With PWATs 200% of normal for this time of year between 1.40"-1.80",
another round of heavy rain with embedded thunder will occur again
tonight. This heavy rain will occur late tonight through tomorrow
morning when the LLJ shifts east of the area. Light to moderate rain
however, will continue through the day Sunday as a surface low
associated with the upper trough lifts northward across eastern
Kansas. There may be a dry slot later in the day across the western
CWA however, slower models suggest it may remain west of the. With a
closed low system, tend to favor the slower solutions. Sunday night
into Monday, the upper level trough will move from northern Kansas
into the western Great Lakes. This will continue the chances for
light rain across the northern half of the CWA through Monday. All
told, rainfall amounts between 1.75" to 4" will be possible across
the CWA.

Conditions look to remain dry Monday afternoon through Tuesday
night. However, Tuesday night into Wednesday a upper level trough
will dig through the Plains bring the chance for another round of
moderate to perhaps even heavy rainfall. The main corridor of this
precipitation again looks to be just south of the CWA. Conditions
then look to again dry out for the latter part of the work and into
next weekend. Temperatures will be below normal through next week
with highs generally in the 50s on Monday and in the 60s the
remainder of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

LIFR cigs with mod rain and VCTS reducing vsbys to 2-4SM this
morning will improve slightly this afternoon with cigs lifting to
IFR with lgt rain. Another round of mod to hvy rain will move back
into the terminals tonight with cigs dropping back into LIFR and
vsbys contg to range btn 2-4SM. There may be a brake in the rain
late tonight however expct LIFR conds to cont.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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