998
FXUS62 KFFC 031135
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
635 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 605 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

 -Possible patch freezing fog at elevations above 2500ft through
     the early morning hours today.

-Another wave of rainfall is expected Thursday through Saturday.
     The potential for wintry precipitation remains low for Thu
     morning.

-1-3" of rainfall expected with the highest totals across SW GA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Current satellite loop shows mainly low clouds across the region
with some clearing across NE/E GA. High pressure has settled in
across the area so will see dry conditions today with decreasing
clouds this afternoon as the sun burns these lower clouds off.
This dry spell will be short lived as the ridge weakens tonight
and moves east off the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina coast. This will
allow the next wave/frontal boundary to move into the state late
Thu morning/Thu afternoon. Temps Thu morning will be right around
freezing just before this next wave starts to spread precipitation
into the area, But it looks like temps will be able to rise into
the middle to upper 30s as the precip moves in. Its going to be
close as to whether or not portions of west GA sees some mixed
precipitation Thu morning, but if we do, we will not have any
accumulations or impacts. This next wave continues moving in
across the state and into the extended forecast periods, which is
where we see the majority of the precipitation amounts from this
system.

High temps today and Thu will be in the 40s and 50s. Low temps
tonight will dip down into the upper 20s to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

On Thursday night, a strong shortwave trough with connections on the
Arctic side of the jet will be moving across the Northeast CONUS
towards the northern Atlantic. This will nudge a cold front
southward towards north Georgia. Furthermore, as this trough quickly
swings away to the northeast, a surface high (1025+ mb) will move
from the Ohio Valley east towards the Appalachians. A CAD wedge is
then expected to develop along the lee side of the Appalachians and
spread into north Georgia late Thursday night into Friday.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will traverse the southern branch of the jet
along the southwesterly flow over the Southeast. With a baroclinic
zone in the vicinity of the aforementioned cold front that nudged
into the area, a surface low associated with the shortwave is likely
to develop over the northern Gulf overnight and move northeastward
towards the forecast area overnight.

With a combination of isentropic lift over the wedge and broad
forcing ahead of the approaching low, scattered showers will
continue to spread from southwest to northeast into the the forecast
area on Thursday night. These showers will increase in coverage and
become widespread by Friday morning and throughout the day. As
moisture overspreads the wedge and rain falls through, latent
cooling processes could serve to reinforce the dome of cold air
underneath the wedge. While this setup has commonly led to wintry
weather in north Georgia, it is early in the season and it is
looking increasingly likely that we will not quite tap into cold
enough temperatures. Model guidance has remained fairly consistent
in maintaining a somewhat weaker surface high displaced further to
the northeast, which favors a weaker wedge and cold air damming in
north Georgia. As a result, temperatures even in the highest
elevations of far north Georgia are forecast to only drop into the
mid 30s on Friday and Saturday mornings. As a result, a persistent
cold rain is expected throughout the day Friday into Saturday, with
minimal chances for wintry precipitation.

On Saturday, Rain chances will begin to gradually trail off from
northwest to southeast as the cold front begins to advance through
the area, displacing the axis of highest rain chances and heaviest
rain into central Georgia. In this forecast package, guidance is
trending towards better agreement on a slower southward progression
of the cold front, with likely to categorical PoPs persisting to the
south of the Atlanta metro area through much of the day. Another
shortwave traversing the SW flow aloft and overrunning the cold
front could furthermore enhance rainfall and spread showers back
into north Georgia. Chance PoPs have been maintained in areas
parallel to Atlanta and as far north as the Georgia/Tennessee
border. Because of these factors, forecast rainfall totals have
increased in this forecast package. Through Saturday night, 2-3
inches of rain is forecast in central Georgia, with locally higher
amounts in the southern tier of counties, while 1-2 inches of rain
is forecast in north Georgia.

The cold front is anticipated to clear the area to the southeast on
Sunday morning, through some trailing light showers could remain on
the back side. Late Sunday, long range guidance indicates a
shortwave dropping from the Great Plains towards the Tennessee
Valley region. A surface low developing ahead of this shortwave
could have the potential to bring another round of rainfall to north
Georgia on Sunday night into early Monday. However, there is ample
model disagreement at this time about the intensity and evolution of
this system. PoPs have been capped at low-end chance (around 30
percent) on Sunday and through early Sunday morning to account for
lingering uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Ceilings are either MVFR or SKC. These lower ceilings will start
to diminish a few hours after sunrise. Winds are expected to stay
out of the NW in the 4-10kt range through the period. No
precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs expected.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          50  31  53  38 /   0   0  20  80
Atlanta         50  34  50  40 /   0   0  30  80
Blairsville     49  29  48  33 /   0   0  10  80
Cartersville    50  28  49  36 /   0   0  20  80
Columbus        54  33  53  42 /   0   0  50  80
Gainesville     50  34  52  39 /   0   0  20  80
Macon           53  31  55  40 /   0   0  40  80
Rome            54  31  53  40 /   0   0  20  80
Peachtree City  52  29  51  38 /   0   0  30  80
Vidalia         56  35  58  45 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01