033
FXUS62 KFFC 241953
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
   the upcoming week.

 - Showers and thunderstorms make a return between Tuesday and
   Thursday. Amounts range from less than 1" south of I-85 and
   1-2" in far north Georgia, with isolated pockets of up to 3"
   possible.

 - There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather
   across most of the area Tuesday. Damaging winds and hail will
   be the main hazards, though an isolated tornado cannot be
   ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Current satellite loop shows some fair weather CU developing
across the state as the surface flow has become southeasterly.
Mid to upper level flow has also switched from NW to SW as the
next closed low frontal system develops over the central and
southern plains. The main high pressure ridge that has kept GA
dry for the past few days is pushing off the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina
coast allowing the next frontal system to push east Tonight.
Currently the closed low is centered over the TX/OK panhandles
and will move into the western great lake states by 12z Tue. Its
associated cold front is pushing into the Mid to lower MS river
valley and will continue moving east tonight. We should start to
see showers with some isolated thunderstorms move into NW GA early
Tue morning and into the ATL area right around daybreak. The
models are showing as this front pushes into the state it appears
the frontal boundary stalls across north GA Tue before finally
exiting the state Wed afternoon. If this does occur it will allow
a few waves along the front to move across the area Tuesday
allowing more precip chances over the same location. Not expecting
any flooding but we could see a two day precip total of 0.5" to
2" for areas north of Interstate 20. There is a good possibility
we could also see some isolated higher amounts.

We could see some strong to severe storms with this frontal
boundary as instability indices are are not the greatest but they
are still modest. It is likely that showers and thunderstorms
will begin forming out ahead of the front early Tuesday,
along with the arrival of best shear (35-40kts). However, the
best instability will come with the onset of the afternoon
diurnal heating. Afternoon capes should get up into the 500-1200
J/kg range, with weakening shear as the main axis of the jet will
have exited. All in all there will be a low-end risk for isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has
outlooked a majority of the forecast area under a Marginal (level
1 out of 5) with a slight risk area (level 2 of 5) right next door
across AL. Given shear orientation along the line, the primary
concerns will be the potential for damaging gusts and perhaps some
hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Starting the long term outlook on Wednesday morning. The line of
showers and thunderstorms will be well on its way crossing the CWA.
CAMs show significant spread in the speed of the front with the HRRR
being most progressive and moving the line out of the area by 12z
and the NAM3km being one of the slowest with the line still in east
central Georgia at the same time. Instability will be mostly limited
due to morning cool air, however robust flow ahead of the line will
be enough to destabilize quickly should the line proceed slower. The
good news is that dynamic driven shear will be limited as the parent
low moves well to the northeast. Overall severe potential is low,
but not zero for Wednesday morning. As the front moves out of the
area, cool air quickly builds in with PWATs dropping to near or even
less than 0.25".

Temperatures will drop into the 30s Wednesday night before
reinforcing of the parent trough truly digs in across the eastern
CONUS. Temps truly drop going into Friday morning with highs in the
mid 20s to low 30s for all of north and central GA. No precipitation
is expected until early next week and temperatures slowly climb
through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Mostly clear skies today with increasing clouds overnight and
precip moving in to the TAF sites after daybreak. MVFR ceilings
move in by 08z-10z Tues with IFR ceilings moving in around 12z
Tue. Will start to see Precip move into the ATL area TAF sites by
14z-16z with thunder chances after 18z. VSBYs should be VFR
until the precip moves in then should see some MVFR to VFR
readings. Winds are mainly out of the SE but will turn to the SW
shortly after daybreak. Wind speeds will be in the 6-12kt range
with some higher gust in and around any stronger showers or
thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  74  60  68 /  10  50  90  20
Atlanta         59  75  60  67 /  20  50  90  10
Blairsville     50  62  52  61 /  40  80 100  10
Cartersville    57  73  55  65 /  40  80  90  10
Columbus        59  79  60  71 /  20  30  90  20
Gainesville     56  70  59  66 /  30  70 100  20
Macon           57  80  61  73 /   0  10  70  40
Rome            59  75  57  67 /  50  80  90  10
Peachtree City  57  76  58  68 /  20  40  90  20
Vidalia         56  81  61  78 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...01