273
FXUS63 KFGF 011839
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
139 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread gusts of 35-40 mph Sunday with hazardous boating
  conditions on larger area lakes.

- Elevated fire danger Monday with humidity in the low 30s and
  wind gusts over 20 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...Synopsis...

The upper low that brought our showery Friday weather will
continue to dig southeast towards Florida around the eastern
periphery of southwest CONUS riding as the ridge become less
amplified and shifts east. While this is occurring in
combination with deamplifying eastern troughing the zonal flow
aloft across the northern plains will shift from WSW to WNW by
the end of the end of weekend into early next week with minor
shortwave activity continuing to ride amongst this transient
pattern all while yielding minimal actual chances for precip in
the near term.

- Windy Sunday

Amid the weak synoptic forcing will be a weak shortwave, developing
in the lee of the Alberta Rockies this afternoon, diving east across
the Canadian prairies today/tomorrow. The attendant cold front will
dip into the northern plains with some morning showers likely in
northern areas closer in proximity to low where low level
dryness is less of a concern (HWY 2 and north). Along with this,
modest warm advection ahead of the front and a tightening
pressure gradient will lead to strong southerly morning wind
gusts up to 40 mph with the front itself and the associated
brief surge of cold advection behind the front maintaining
these winds through the mid afternoon though a lack of prolonged
CAA and a weakening PGF post-front should limit the potential
of the NBM QMD wind gusts being realized. Overall think the
potential for wind advisory criteria is low due to these factors
and thus opting to disagree with the signal for now from the
NBM of > 70% for wind advisory criteria to be met.

- Monday Fire Danger

Beyond this cold front heading into Monday postfrontal dry air
will lead to RH in the upper 20s to low 30s combined with winds
of 15 mph gusting over 20 could lead to elevated fire danger but
with the recent widespread inch of rain in the last week the
state of fuels is unknown but would lean more towards the side
of safe currently due to that recent rain.

Looking further into next week zonal flow briefly gives way to
shortwave ridging turning flow more northwesterly aloft with
slightly increased chances for shortwave activity and wetter
weather. However things will depend on the position and
orientation of the jet stream before confidence increases in
anything falling/accumulating across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

SCT to BKN cumulus has developed for most with a variable
height from 1500-3500 leaving tafs bordering on MVFR/VFR with
little confidence through 00z. Winds generally increasing from
the south this afternoon with gusts over 20kts by 00z and 30kts
for most (minus FAR) by Sunday morning. Once the cumulus die off
this afternoon VFR skies through the remainder of the period
with a brief stint of LLWS Sunday morning for northern sites as
a cold front sweeps through turning winds S/SW to W/NW. Winds
remaining strong post front at 20kts and gusting 30-35kts
(slightly more calm in FAR).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT