691
FXUS63 KFGF 190919
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
319 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Widespread weather impacts are not expected through this
  weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

...Synopsis...

Patches of light rain from southwest and south central ND thru
mid and northern Red River valley into far northwest MN at 09z.
Mostly sprinkles with trace amounts since 06z but Crary NDAWN
had 0.02. Subtle short wave in NW SD will move northeast into
the RRV this aftn and then northeast after that. Lots of mid
level moisture for light rain today, with amounts overall on the
light side. Favored band of light rain today into this evening is
near vort max track from near or north of Bismarck to Grand
Forks to Baudette, Red Lake MN where QPF amounts are forecast in
the 0.10 to 0.20 inch range. For the overnight this upcoming Wed
night switched to more of a drizzle as ptype as coord with
MPX/DLH and data from HRRR show areas from near Fergus Falls up
toward Bemidji likely in low level moisture and potential fog
and drizzle. Temps warm enough thru the period for liquid light
rain.

Clearing from the west Thursday with WNW winds. Highs still
mostly 40-45. Dry stretch of weather Friday thru Sunday as 500
mb flow will be zonal or slight WNW, but northern jet is in
central Canada. Thus outside of bands of mid and high clouds,
looks quiet with highs in the 40s, a few 50s possible if more
sun on any one day, especially southeast ND. Normal highs this
weekend for Grand Forks is at 32 so continued well above normal
readings.

For next week....Monday will be dry and similar temps to the
weekend. Then Tues-Wed period is the most uncertain weather
period in regards to a short wave and surface low that the
GFS/ECMWF ensemble means and NBM track just north of the
International border. Thus Tues period will be on the south side
of this and any light precipiation likey to be liquid light
rain. A couple of the 00z GFS ensemble members want to take low
a bit more south toward the ND border and this if it occurs
would indicate snow chances would be higher right along ND/MB
border Tuesday aftn/night. Wednesday sees the 500 mb and sfc low
move east with ECMWF the stronger of all of the models in terms
of intensity and also slowest, with system north of Kenora
Ontario 12z Wed and moving east thru the day Wed. GFS is faster.
Either way though as system passes by there will a period of
windier colder weather and potential for light snow esp northern
areas but impacts from this wraparound moisture at this time
looks miminal with advisory level impacts for WPC for Wed along
the border 5-10 percent.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions at all TAF sites as ceilings with 5000-10000 ft
move across the area. Will see some MVFR, and then possibly IFR
ceilings come in later tonight and into tomorrow. Some spots
could see fog development, although at this point the best
chances for less than a mile visibility look to be north of
KDVL. A bit of light rain will be possible at KGFK and the MN
airports tomorrow afternoon, but somewhat scattered so kept
mention VCSH. KFAR should improve to VFR by the end of the
period, but think the rest of the TAF sites will remain MVFR
through the end of the period. Winds that are light and
southeasterly will become more southwesterly to westerly at
around 10 kts by tomorrow afternoon or evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...JR