077
FXUS63 KFGF 151248
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
648 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are low chances for precipitation next week, with the
  chance for advisory impacts from either snow accumulation or
  light freezing rain less than 10 percent.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Light rain showers have transitioned well southeast of our
region, with just lingering mid level clouds that are slowly
breaking up/transitioning south. Winds are beginning to pick up
from the west-northwest and the forecast appears to be on track.
Only minor adjustments were needed to near term trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...Synopsis...

Split flow is developing across the CONUS with an upper trough
associated with the northern split building towards Hudson Bay and
the associated cold front now south of our CWA. There are still some
lingering light rain showers in our south-southeast just behind this
front (trace to a few hundredths rainfall) and this should transition
out of our CWA before sunrise. Temperatures will be cooler today,
but still above average with locations in the south in the upper 40s
(potentially near 50). The general trend is going to be fore our CWA
to remain within the gap in split flow this week as a cutoff low
gradually moves into the Plains and east. Temperature trends and
precipitation chances/impacts remain highly uncertain due to the
nature of this type of pattern and ensembles reflect the low
probabilities.

...Wintry precipitation chances early to mid week...

Due to the nature of this pattern and our location within it,
confidence in precipitation/impacts remain highly uncertain. The
cutoff low is shown by a few outliers to play a role in bringing
rain or snow to our south, while other outliers try to resolve a
wintry mix from weaker waves in the northern stream. Ensemble
clustering generally favors either dry or only very light
precipitation chances as organized forcing splits around our region.
For the outliers that do show winter impacts over parts of our
region, small details including mesoscale forcing and temperature
trends (often diurnally dependent) would be required for more
impactful winter weather as rates would need to be higher to
overcome warmer surfaces or fall during the nighttime period. In
this pattern these details are going to carry a very low
predictability horizon even if there is a more consistent synoptic
trend for our region.

The trend in ensembles has been for fewer members supporting impacts
in our area and currently less than 10% of individual ensemble
members now showing some "type" of winter accumulation (highly
variable in timing/type even with these outliers). pWSSI reflects
this trend with only a 5% for minor (advisory) winter impacts (very
spotty) and the primary driver is from light icing/freezing
precipitation. NBM probs for greater than 1" snowfall are less than
10% and the prob for 3"+ is near zero. FZRA/FZDZ would need to occur
during diurnally favored periods as surface will tend to remain warm
based on forecast temperature ranges. Wetbulb/evaporative processes
would have to contribute to p-type change over as we are not
expecting strong CAA in any one period through the end of the week
in this type of pattern.

Long story short: Any winter precipitation this week will be highly
conditional on many things lining up correctly, and ensembles do not
show a consensus towards one scenario (besides dry conditions) at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mid
level clouds (5000-10000 FT AGL) clearing early in the TAF
period north to south. Winds increase above 12kt from the west-
northwest (290-310) through the morning hours, with peak daytime
gusts 25-30kt. Winds should decrease with loss of daytime
heating in the evening, then become light and variable 5kt or
less by Sunday morning as surface high pressure builds over the
region and gradient weakens.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR