504
FXUS63 KFGF 110531
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1131 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional periods of light snow through Friday, with blowing
  snow Thursday night into Friday. This may impact travel
  conditions, including a 30% chance for advisory-level impacts
  from blowing snow.

- Brief but intense cold snap Friday and Saturday, including
  wind chills -30F or colder.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Mostly cloudy skies this continue this evening with some areas
of lower clouds. Precipitation will slowly start moving in after
midnight from west to east, primarily as snow. Amounts are still
expected to remain light with the main wave progressing south of
us through the day tomorrow.

UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Flurries continue to linger in the eastern zones but impacts
will remain mild as rates will be light. Attention turns west as
snow approaches with the next system coming in. No changes to
the forecast on this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

...Synopsis...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals broad upper troughing
from the Great Lakes into the Southeast, with a stout
atmospheric river nosing into the Pacific Northwest and northern
Rockies. The Northern Plains are between these two features
under northwest flow aloft. This pattern looks to remain
generally in place into the weekend.

Ensemble guidance continues to suggest two or more progressive
clipper-like systems to traverse the northern fringes of the
Pacific jet across the Dakotas into the Upper Mississippi
Valley Thursday and Friday. This will bring periods of light
snow, along with gusty winds late Thursday into early Friday.
These will drive potential for travel impacts, particularly from
blowing snow. Behind Friday`s clipper, arctic air mass
overspreads our area, lingering through the weekend. This brings
well below average temperatures to the area, including
hazardous wind chills -30F or colder.

Beyond this weekend into next week, the upper pattern is
strongly suggested to change. Ensemble guidance generally agrees
in upper ridging to develop over the central CONUS, with quasi-
zonal flow over the Northern Plains into Upper Midwest. This
brings average to above average temperatures to the region,
which will be a markedly different change compared to the
previous cold snap this weekend.

There is disagreement in how amplified the upper ridge may be,
which will have implications on potential for waves to traverse
the region as well as how above average our temperatures get.
This includes the potential to see above freezing into our area.
Warming temperatures may complicate precipitation types with any
wave that may move through/near the area, as well as promote
fog/drizzle.

...Potential travel impacts Thursday and Friday...

The first clipper in line to traverse the Dakotas into
Minnesota/Iowa comes tonight through Thursday. This will bring
light snow to our area, general new accumulations between 1 to
3 inches, highest in southeast ND into west-central MN. The
chance for ice less than 10% as warmer air stays well displaced
to our south. The only potential for light icing may come from
brief freezing drizzle, but the brevity and light nature of this
potential hazard should be low enough to mitigate impacts.

The next clipper/wave of energy comes late Thursday into Friday,
bringing additional light snow up to 1 inch. However, this wave
will carry an arctic air mass behind it. This arctic air mass
will bring drastically decreasing temperatures and gusty winds.
Winds look to be mainly driven via mixing from steepening lapse
rates within the boundary layer as well as a period of moderate
to perhaps strong cold air advection. This will aid in
generating sustained winds of at least 20 mph, but perhaps as
high as 30 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Temperatures dip into the
single digits above and below 0F during this period of strongest
winds.

With much of the region holding a blowable snowpack, these winds
and temperatures will generate areas of blowing snow. Should
sustained winds stay around the 20 mph, there will be a 30%
chance for advisory-type impacts (i.e. periods/scattered
whiteout conditions). If winds are higher (closer to 30 mph),
widespread/numerous whiteouts leading to warning-type impacts
will be possible (10% chance of occurring). Further degrading
confidence in severity of visibility reductions is whether or
not precipitating HCRs are present behind the front. There is a
signal for this to occur, but predictability in snow rates and
coverage of these are too low to message this scenario
confidently, as is often the case for storm-scale convective
phenomena.

...Very cold conditions this weekend...

Arctic air mass overspread our region starting Friday, lasting
through Saturday into Sunday. This will bring coldest conditions
of the season thus far, with teens and twenties below zero
forecast Friday night/Saturday morning as well as Saturday
night/Sunday morning. The combination of decreasing temperatures
and gusty winds Friday and Saturday will lead to wind chills
-30F or colder. While winds calm Sunday, temperatures will be
 cold enough to maintain these hazardous conditions into Sunday.
 There is around a 40% chance for -40F or colder across portions
 of the region Friday night, Saturday morning and night, and
 Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

A stratus deck over northwest Minnesota will continue to linger
through the early morning hours, impacting primarily BJI/TVF.
MVFR ceilings may go in and out at these TAF sites. VFR
conditions can be expected at all other TAF sites in the near
term.

Ceilings will begin to lower as a system approaches from the
west. Snow is expected across the region with this, generally
lowering visibilities to MVFR/IFR at times. Expect the worst
conditions to be between 09z-19z, with MVFR/IFR visibilities
expected within this swath of snow. Snow will taper through the
afternoon, but low ceilings should remain on the backside of
this. Winds will initially be southerly while it is snowing but
will eventually become light and variable.

Another system will approach from the west towards the end of
the TAF period, although DVL should be the only site impacted
within the TAF window. Expect increasing winds and snow to be
associated with this system.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux