Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
840 FXUS64 KFWD 150724 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 124 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain may increase the threat for flooding during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 A rather uneventful weather day is once again expected today across North and Central Texas as high pressure remains in control. With subsidence atop our region, afternoon temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 80s with a few 90s possible near Mineral Wells, Graham and Breckenridge. Similar to the past several afternoons, a south/southwesterly breeze will be in place with gusts reaching 20-30 mph through around sunset. The area of high pressure will begin to break down as we head into tomorrow as a trough enters the western CONUS. Concurrent with the slow moving West Coast trough, a much more amplified longwave trough will impact the eastern half of the country. Although impacts from the eastern trough will be minimal, a weak cold front will manage to temporarily make an appearance tomorrow morning and afternoon, stalling across North Texas. With northerly winds in place across some parts of North Texas, afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 The new week ahead will bring a series of weather changes as the pattern overhead gradually becomes more complex. On Monday, the West Coast trough referenced in the short-term discussion will be migrating across the Rockies. This will induce lee cyclogenesis across central Colorado, thus, inducing a rapid northward mass response over our region. PWATs will rise by about 0.5" across the region from Monday to Tuesday, with an additional 0.5-0.75" increase from Tuesday to Wednesday. With abundant moisture in place, cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will arrive on Tuesday and persist through the latter half of the week. With the shortwave across the Front Range sliding east into the Upper Mid-West, another shortwave will enter the southwestern CONUS and begin tracking eastward through the first half of the week. This system will likely bring more impactful weather to the region as it slowly inches closer, and in doing so, it`ll send embedded disturbances atop our region as early as Tuesday Night. With each passing disturbance, expect rain chance to increase. Rain chances will be the greatest on Thursday as the main upper trough moves overhead. Given the complexity of the overall weather pattern across the region, there are still some uncertainties when it comes to total rainfall amounts and thunderstorm intensity. The latest cluster analysis has sided with the slower eastward progression of the system, meaning, just over half of the available ensemble members keep the shortwave west of our region through Thursday. This slower solution would allow for moisture to continue to be drawn northward into North and Central Texas as periodic waves of forcing for ascent move overhead. Given the slower progression, most likely rainfall amounts will range between 2-4" over the 3 day period starting Tuesday night. Timing of the heaviest rain remains unclear at this time, however, given near record amounts of moisture in the atmosphere, the threat for flooding will increase. The overall strong-severe potential remains unclear given weak to moderately-weak shear profiles and the amount of competing updrafts that are likely to develop. These details are expected to clear up as we get closer to next week, therefore, make sure to monitor over the next several days as the specific details are likely to change between today and the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions are ongoing with southerly winds in place across North and Central Texas. This will be changing through the early morning hours as another shroud of MVFR cigs moves north from the Texas Hill Country. KACT will likely see the arrival of MVFR around 10z while North Texas will see it closer to 13z. Coverage in low clouds will be greatest across Central Texas with on and off MVFR in North Texas through around 16z. After 16z, VFR skies will resume with south/southwesterly winds gusting to around 25 kts through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 84 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 81 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 86 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 84 58 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 86 63 83 64 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 84 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 85 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 85 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 91 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez