061
FXUS63 KGID 220918
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog, at times dense, possible through the mid-morning
  hours mainly southwest of the Tri-cities.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- The next chance for rain (50-80%) arrives Sunday night-Monday,
accumulations will be light (Generally 0.10" or less).

- Cooler weather (highs 30s/40s) arrives Tuesday and continues
  through the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Skies are gradually clearing across the area this morning, with
temperatures currently sitting in the 30s. Areas of patchy fog, at
times dense, are ongoing over southwestern portions of the
area. Fog will gradually shift to the east-southeast this
morning, as westerly winds strengthen. Widespread dense fog does
not appear likely given the unfavorable wind direction. Despite
this, periods of fog with visibility below 1 mile are possible
through the mid-morning hours, most likely across portions of
north central Kansas that saw the heaviest rain on Friday.

A very pleasant day is expected, under mostly sunny skies and west-
northwest winds. Have opted to go on the higher end of model
guidance for highs today (low 60s), given favorable downslope winds
and sunshine allowing for deeper mixing. Clear skies and light winds
will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s
tonight. Winds shift to the south on Sunday ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough. Highs on Sunday will climb into the mid 50s to low
60s, though southwestern portions of the area could be kept a little
cooler due to increasing cloud coverage. Get outside and enjoy the
weather if you can, as much cooler weather arrives next week.

The shortwave and associated low move into the forecast area Sunday
night, bringing a fairly widespread chance (50-80%) for rain. Rain
accumulations with this system will remain fairly light, with most
areas seeing 0.10" or less. Scattered light rain comes to an end
from west to east Monday afternoon. The rest of the forecast period
remains largely on track as a strong cold front pushes through the
area on Tuesday. Gusty winds are expected behind the cold front,
with gusts of 35-45mph possible across northern portions of the
area. Behind the front, highs in the upper 30s to low 40s are
expected through the end of the forecast period. The forecast is dry
for Thanksgiving, with the next system arriving around the end of
the month (first chance for snow?).


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Cloudy skies and occasionally wet conditions were observed
across much of the local area today, with significant rainfall
(1-3"+) accumulating across our Kansas counties. Further north,
the gradient in precipitation was sharp, and parts of the area
mainly north of interstate 80 - received only a few hundredths
to a couple tenths of an inch of precip in the most favored
locations. Expect the responsible area of low pressure to
continue to track east tonight, with rainfall likely tapering
off by dark.

As the next upper level low then digs off the southern CA/Baja
coast Saturday...expect heights aloft to amplify and skies to
clear, with a very nice start to the weekend in store for the
entire region. Light westerly winds (unfavorable for morning
fog - but favorable for warmer temps) are then anticipated
across the area ahead of this low on Saturday...which should
also help boost temperatures into the 60s area wide. These
westerly winds will then shift and become more southerly on
Sunday, ahead of the aforementioned upper level low off the CA
coast that will bring increasing cloud cover throughout the day.
Despite the increasing clouds, temperatures should remain on the
mild side Sunday, with a chance of rain overtaking the region
Sunday night into Monday. This low will then rapidly move east
by Monday afternoon, and given the progressive nature and lack
of moisture depicted in the models, anticipate QPF to be on the
light side (0.01-0.25") despite the rather high pops (30-60%).

Thereafter, a cold front from the north will push across the
local area Tuesday...potentially bringing very windy conditions
to the region during the daytime hours. Behind this front,
northwesterly flow aloft is anticipated to persist through the
remainder of the forecast period...and likely beyond. This will
result in a cooler weather pattern, with occasional chances for
precip. The first chance, Thanksgiving night, is not anticipated
to be significant locally or impact many, with models honing in
on the subsequent disturbance late in the weekend that could
potentially bring the first measurable snowfall of the season to
start December.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1116 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Potential for very patchy fog/lowered ceilings resulting in
sub-VFR conditions look to linger around the terminal areas for
the first few hours of this TAF period...with VFR conditions
then expected through the rest of the period. Currently also
have a deck of upper level cirrus...which will diminish with
time tonight...leaving the rest of the period with little
overall cloud cover. Winds currently continue to be
light/variable, with models continuing to show a more WSWrly
component developing through the early morning hours, eventually
turning more westerly, the northwesterly during the
daytime/evening hours Saturday. Can`t rule out a few afternoon
gusts near 20 MPH, but otherwise speeds look to top out around
10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...ADP