638
FXUS63 KGID 121124
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
624 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally above normal temperatures anticipated through the
  forecast period with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees
  above normal each day.

- Periodic (mainly small) thunderstorm chances anticipated
  across the local area. Chances will be focused mainly during
  the evening through overnight hours with at least a small
  chance for strong to severe thunderstorms most days.

- A stronger upper level trough will likely bring the best
  chance for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity
  next Tuesday PM or Wednesday, but still plenty of uncertainty
  with the timing and track of this trough.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A few storms across the high plains late last night fizzled as
they approached our western boundary, with only a few clouds
pushing across the area early this morning. After a partly
cloudy start to the day, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop near the frontal boundary extending
from south Dakota into western Nebraska by early
evening...gradually weakening as they track east during the late
evening and overnight hours. The HRRR brings these decaying
storms to areas mainly west of Highway 183, with the NAM/NAMnest
not nearly as optimistic holding these storms together as they
track east. As a result, it was not surprising that the Marginal
Risk for severe weather for today was trimmed and limited to
areas to our west for this evening and overnight.

A slightly better chance for severe weather returns to the local
area Friday evening/night, as models have hinted at a more
organized disturbance moving off the high plains and into parts
of the local area. Correspondingly, the chances for severe
weather have shifted east, but this is still a fairly low
confidence event as the local area will be on the decaying edge
of this system late Friday night.

For the weekend and beyond, expect a messy ridge of high
pressure to continue across the central plains with daily
(mainly evening/overnight) chances for showers and thunderstorms
along with continued above normal temperatures. Not all areas
will see precip each day, and some areas may remain dry.

The main difference this morning was the disappearance of the
cooler temps next Tuesday, with highs now remaining in the lower
90s Tuesday afternoon, and the cooler day/more seasonable
weather holding off until the upper level trough and better
chances for rainfall return next Wednesday. While there is
better agreement among the EC/GFS ensembles for a more
widespread rainfall event next Tuesday PM/Wednesday,
operational runs of both the EC/GFS still have significant
differences, so overall confidence of timing remains on the
lower side. So all is all, above normal temps forecast through
the period with at least some chances for precip each
evening/night (with the most promising chances likely next
Tuesday PM/Wednesday).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period.

Lots of high level clouds streaming across the area this
morning...associated with convection that dissipated to the west
of the terminals overnight. Expect mostly sunny skies to return
by mid/late morning as winds once again increase out of the
south across the region. Winds will likely gust to around 20
KTS from 12/15-13/01Z...becoming steady near 10 KTS again out of
the south through the overnight hours. Again, there should be
some scattered convection across the high plains this
evening/late night, but this convection should dissipate as it
tracks east towards the terminals around 13/06Z...with no
precipitation expected to impact either terminal.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi