Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 171142
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, blustery and dry conditions will bring another round of
  near critical fire weather conditions to the area today.

- The new work week will feature roller coaster temperatures,
  from teens Monday morning to widespread 60s and lower 70s
  Tuesday afternoon, and everything in between, but generally
  lesser fire weather concerns.

- Generally speaking, pattern looks to become more active, and
  eventually colder, late in the week and into the weekend, with
  various deterministic solutions suggesting non-zero chances
  for both strong storms and accumulating snow.

- However, forecast confidence declines significantly during
  this period owing to large ensemble spread.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Highly amplified upper flow remains in place over large portion
of North America, thanks to deep troughing between Hudson Bay
and the Great Lakes, and strong ridge of high pressure over the
Pacific NW/British Columbia. A closed, cut-off upper low, which
has essentially become stationary over past 24-48 hours, is
located over the SW CONUS. As of 4AM, skies are mostly clear and
temperatures range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

The highly amplified flow will lead to a chilly, blustery day
today for much of the Plains. Temperatures have continued to
trend a bit cooler and now range from the lower 40s north, to
around 50F in north central KS, with the Tri-Cities around the
mid 40s. This is about 5-7 degrees cooler than forecast about 48
hours ago. Combine the cool temps with strong northerly winds
15-25 MPH, gusting 30-35 MPH, and it will not be an overly
pleasant day. Once again, expect widespread at least near
critical fire weather this afternoon thanks to continued very
dry low level airmass. Despite the cool air temperatures, dew
points falling into the single digits to low teens will still
support relative humidity values falling into the low to mid 20s
for the mid-late afternoon hours. Given the persistent strong
north wind and cured fine fuels, strongly considered a Red Flag
Warning for at least portions of the forecast area for the 3-7PM
time frame. However, ultimately decided against a headline
given the trend for cooler air temperatures and overall limited
window for overlap of truly critical RH/wind. Instead, will
continue to message the fire weather threat via HWO and SM.

Surface high pressure will nose into the region tonight and
allow for lighter winds and continued clear skies. This, along
with the very dry low level airmass, will allow temps to plunge
into the mid to upper teens areawide by Mon AM. Return flow
tries to setup on Mon, but the cold start to the day delayed
turn to W/SW winds until late in the day have led to downward
trend in high temps Mon. Still expect near-normal temps,
though, in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and with much lighter winds
and full sunshine it will be a nice day by mid-March standards.

Temps will continue the upward climb on the roller coaster
Tuesday with highs forecast to top out in the mid 60s to low 70s
areawide. Wednesday, however, has trended a solid 5-10 deg
colder over the past 24 hrs, or so, thanks to backdoor cold
front associated with potent shortwave in the fast NW upper
flow. For instance, Tri-Cities have trended from the mid 60s
with yesterday AM`s forecast package to mid 50s with the current
one. Breezy easterly flow will also add some chill factor. The
more amplified pattern has also led to a more "suppressed" trend
in low precip chances Wed night into Thu as it appears the best
forcing will remain further S across KS/MO.

Sensible weather and deterministic temperature forecast has kind
of been all over the place in the Thursday to next weekend time
frame...which isn`t too shocking given wide range of ensemble
output. In fact, latest EPS run produces a nearly 25-30 degree
range in high temperatures between it`s 25th and 75th percentile
output next weekend - anywhere from low 40s to near 70F for the
Tri-Cities. What once looked like a cooling trend developing
Thu-Fri may not occur until more of the Sun-Mon time frame now,
based on latest trends. Needless to say, confidence in exact
details are quite low. The low confidence comes from varying
solutions regarding depth, placement, and even timing, of next
deep upper trough. Various deterministic output suggests non-
zero chances for either/both strong to severe storms and
accumulating snow at some point next weekend - which given
climatology and trend towards slower/deeper trough actually
seems plausible. Overall, just too much uncertainty to go into
any greater detail beyond a statement that the pattern may trend
more active and eventually cooler - but whether that happens
Fri-Sat or moreso Sun-Mon remains to be worked out. And depending
on the track/placement of pertinent surface features, there
could be a wide range in weather just across our local area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR through the period. Could have some FEW-SCT stratocu at
around 3-4K ft during the AM-early aftn hrs, but otherwise
mostly clear. Another round of breezy-windy conditions will
redevelop mid to late AM and continue through the afternoon when
speeds will peak 15-20kt and gusts around 30kt. Winds will decr
to 6-10kt around/just after sunset this eve. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies


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