Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 281753
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

The upper low is currently spinning over southern and eastern
Nebraska. The low is moving very slow and precipitation is
lingering this morning across portions of the area. Expect this to
diminish and move eastward through the early morning hours. The
low is expected to move to the northeast over NE Nebraska and SE
South Dakota. This will move the main area of precip to Northeast
Nebraska...but some activity could linger over central and
eventually eastern Nebraska by afternoon. After the precip this
morning moves out, largely think the day will be dry with
scattered chances re-developing over eastern Nebraska. For the
first day in a while, strong to severe storms are not anticipated.
CAPE and shear are modest and upper level support is not
overwhelming behind the second PV wave.

If rain does impact the eastern sections of the area...any
lingering rain showers could aggravate already saturated soils.
This could cause more nuisance flooding. If a heavy thunderstorm
lingers over the area flash flooding could become a concern...but
this is not anticipated at this time.

Expect skies to scatter throughout the day and sunshine will help
temperatures warm into the upper 70s especially over northern
Kansas and western sections of south central Nebraska.

Another couple of PV waves separate from each other will move
towards the area overnight tonight. The first could develop some
light rain in central/northern Nebraska that could impact the
central Nebraska counties. The second one is expected to only
impact northwest Kansas...but if it lifts faster it could impact
north central Kansas. Have left it dry overnight for now for most
of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Primary forecast concern remains with thunderstorm chances through
the first part of next week.

At the start of the period Sunday morning, models remain in pretty
good agreement looking at the overall picture, showing the Plains
under generally westerly flow in the upper levels. Main features
include a trough axis swinging through the western Great Lakes, a
low pressure system over southern CA and another system moving into
the Pac NW and western Canada. Through the rest of the daytime hours
and into Sunday night, while there isn`t a significant change in the
westerly flow across the region, the southern CA low is sliding east
into AZ, while the Pac NW/Canada system moves into the northern
Rockies. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for this time
frame, but kept pops in the 20-30 percent range. Overall the forcing
is on the weak side, with chances driven by a low amplitude
shortwave disturbance/peak heating, perhaps aided by a 20-30 kt LLJ
as we get into the evening/overnight hours. Though models show
decent instability potential, overall deeper layer shear is on the
lower side. Thunderstorms could be strong at times, but at this
point thinking the threat for severe weather is not high. Otherwise,
winds look to be southerly through the day, with speeds around 10 to
15 MPH, with high temperatures in the lower 80s.

At this time, Monday into Tuesday looks to be the period with the
best widespread chances for thunderstorms across the area. What
activity develops Sunday night will play a role in how Monday will
start out, it`s a good possibility there won`t be a whole lot going
on during the morning hours. Chances start increasing during the
afternoon hours, driven by increasing lift associated with the upper
level low pressure system moving through the northern Rockies. The
highest pops through the afternoon are across the western portions
of the CWA, closer to the main surface cold front moving through
western NE. The evening/overnight hours currently have the highest
pops, the surface cold front is pushing further east, and while not
overly strong, there in an increasing LLJ. Precip chances on
Tuesday/Tuesday night will be largely dependent on how much progress
that cold front makes, as it will serve as the focus for additional
development that afternoon. The main upper level is still in the
region, centered over the Dakotas during the day on Tuesday. The
further south that front can push, so goes the better precip
chances. Strong/severe thunderstorms are a concern with the better
forcing available, mainly late Monday afternoon into the
evening/overnight, across roughly the western half of the CWA.
Current forecast highs for Memorial Day/Monday are in the upper
70s/lower 80s, with mid 70s for Tuesday.

As we get into the latter half of the week, Wed-Fri, the forecast
dries out. The upper level low over the Dakotas and the southward
extending trough axis finally push off to the east of the CWA, with
more northwesterly flow building in, thanks to ridging over the
Rockies. Do have some lingering low pops in for Wednesday (mainly
the morning), but if current models hold on to this drying trend,
quite possible those PoPs will be removed. Expecting it to be a bit
cooler on Wednesday and Thursday as a cooler air mass settles in
behind that cold front, with current forecast highs generally in the
lower 70s. Warmer air aloft looks to start building in from the west
for Friday, with forecast highs reaching further into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Confidence is fairly high in VFR ceiling/visibility through the
period. A rogue shower/weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
mainly this afternoon. More details follow...

Ceiling/visibility: About the only "catch" to VFR is right away
during these first 6 hours this afternoon, as it is possible that
a brief, high-end MVFR ceiling could materialize as stratocumulus
continues blossoming over the area with daytime heating. However,
this cloud deck is more likely to remain VFR. Later in the period,
expect only varying degree of mid-level VFR clouds.

Precipitation/thunderstorms: Have gone with a generic "vicinity
shower" (VCSH) group for this afternoon to account for hit-and-
miss activity drifting through. However, a brief, weak
thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out. Beyond late this
afternoon, cannot guarantee it stays dry, but chances are too low
for TAF inclusion.

Winds: The strongest winds of the period will occur right away
this afternoon, with sustained speeds 12+kt and gust potential
15-20kt. Thereafter, a generally light (less than 10kt) breeze
will prevail, mainly from a south or southwest component.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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