Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241711
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Biggest issue today will be when and if thunderstorms develop.
Current convection mostly south of the area in Kansas overnight, and
should stay mainly outside of the CWA according to most short-term
models. A warm front will traverse east across the CWA today, and
thunderstorms could fire near this boundary this afternoon as the
low-level lapse rate steepens and we arrive at or near convective
temperature. Kept highs largely the same from the previous forecast
in the lower to mid 90s for today. 700 mb temperatures are not
terribly warm, so I envision any cap potentially breaking in the
afternoon. It will be a bit more likely that thunderstorms would
occur toward the eastern CWA, if models are correct with the
timing of the warm front, but if it winds up being slower, then
pretty much any part of the CWA is fair game. Bulk shear will be
moderate, in the 25 to 30 kt range, and CAPE will probably max out
in excess of 2000 J/kg for at least some locations. With the
potential for a surface boundary nearby, we could have at least a
strong storm or two this afternoon/evening, but any storms should
dissipate or move east fairly early in the evening. There could be
some remnants of High Plains convection entering our western CWA
during the evening and making its way east, but there is little
support for severe convection into the overnight. Lows will likely
not drop below the 70s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Big Story: This has been a bone-dry month...especially E of Hwy 183.
Tue-Wed may offer the best chance of rain we`ve seen in a while...
but it could come with svr wx.

Aloft: A potent low will be traveling E along the US-Can border Sat
...embedded within the Westerlies. Subtropical high pres will cont
to dominate the Srn 1/3 of the USA. The low will move into Ontario
Sun. A broad Wrn ridge/Ern trof will develop by Mon with the
subtropical high retreating to the Desert SW. This pattern will
remain locked in for the rest of the week...putting the Cntrl Plains
in NW flow.

Surface: At daybreak Sat a weak Pac cool front will extend from the
Dakota`s SW across cntrl Neb into CO. This front will cross the area
mainly during the morning hrs...and will be exiting the Ern/Srn
fringes of the fcst area during peak heating. Weak high pres will
build over the region Sun. A second strong front of Canadian origin
will be sagging thru the Nrn USA. This front will drop thru the fcst
area Mon. Fairly strong high pres will then slide SE out of Canada
and into the Ern USA Tue-Fri. Meanwhile...the front will become
stationary from the Gulf Coast states NW across the Srn Plains to
the Front Range of the Rockies.

The past 3 EC runs fcst a shortwave trof to move onshore in the Pac
NW Mon...rounding the ridge Tue and then heading SE into the fcst
area Tue night. Once this trof passes...the front should be forced
deeper into the Srn USA.

Some daily details...

Sat: Weak cool frontal passage. The timing of its passage will
dictate tstm potential. Followed model/SREF consensus which allows
for a few tstms to develop E and S of Grand Island in the 3 pm-6 pm
time frame.

Tropospheric winds will be largely parallel to the front...
suggesting potential for storms to gradually form a thin line...
probably initiating over S-cntrl Neb and then building SW into Nrn
KS. Development of a line really depends on how many storms
initiate.

Given how far removed the area will be from the upr forcing...there
may only be a couple storms.

Temps 89-99F with dwpts 65-69F will result in substantial
instability with MLCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg. With the trof and
associated jet streak well N of the fcst area...weak winds aloft and
a unidirectional profile will create an environment of weak shear
around 20 kts immediately ahead of the front. This does not argue
for highly organized storm structures.

Used a 50-50 blend of the 18Z and 00Z consensus of model 2m temps
for highs. This heated temps up back close to 100F over Mitchell
County and cooled temps slightly from Lexington-Ord.

Sun: Looking dry...but not much of a cool-down. Areas from Lexington-
Ord will actually be warmer than Sat. N-cntrl KS won`t be quite as
hot...but still should see 90-92F. Very comfortable humidity as
dwpts drop far into the 50s.

Mon: Can`t rule out an isolated tstm or two with the frontal
passage.

Tue-Wed: Have potential to be convectively active with 1 or 2
opportunities for an MCS to move into parts of the fcst area. The
shortwave trof mentioned above will need to be watched.

Thu: Currently looks dry but with tstms remaining well W and S of
the fcst area.

Temps especially Tue-Wed will be dictated by MCS activity and cloud
cover. Bottom line is a break from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period. Chances for
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for both terminal sites, main
change was to push back the timing of the VCTS mention, with most
models in good agreement keeping this afternoon/evening dry. A
stronger upper level disturbance and accompanying cold front will
start moving through the terminal areas right at/just after the
end of this TAF period. Winds remain southerly for this TAF, with
gusts near 20 MPH possible this afternoon.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Halblaub
AVIATION...ADP



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