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000 FXUS63 KGID 212106 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 306 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. QUESTION FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER. CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE THEM BREAK UP SOME AT SUNSET...BUT WITH GOOD SOUTH FLOW AND DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTH...EXPECT CLOUDS TO RETURN BY 22/06Z. WITH CLOUD COVER AND MOIST AIRMASS...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO FAR. GUIDANCE HAS LOWS IN THE 30S MOST AREAS. WILL OPT FOR READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. WOULD ALSO EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE. CLOUDS AND FOG/DRIZZLE WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY AND WILL EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. THIS WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN THAT LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS AROUND 50 MOST AREAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO START TO DRY THINGS OUT A LITTLE IN THE AFTERNOON SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY MID-DAY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS DOWN JUST A BIT AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S. WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...EVEN WITH SOME DRYING...WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND. .LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT BASICALLY THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY AND DRIFTS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OR NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT TO AROUND IOWA BY TUESDAY EVENING...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. WILL TREND TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF BUT WILL MAKE A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO IT. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. ALONG THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR MONDAY. IN THE MORNING THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FURTHER NORTH BUT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES IN. MONDAY NIGHT THE COOLER AIR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH. MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR GETS INTO THE AREA...BUT IF THE LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH AS THE ECMWF...THEN IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH. EXPECT THAT THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENING. IN THE EAST IT MAY STAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL BE IN THE WEST. ON TUESDAY THE LOW STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST BUT EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. THE COOLER AIR LINGERS IN THE AREA AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SNOW ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM UP IN THE AFTERNOON THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SOME RAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. A LITTLE OF THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LINGERS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT IT SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES A SHORT WAVE SPINS AROUND THE LOW INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS BUT TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ALSO COOL OFF A LITTLE SO DO NOT EXPECT A BIG WARM UP FOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES START TO REBOUND...BUT THURSDAY NIGHT THE WARM UP IS TAKING SHAPE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WARMING ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES C IN 12 HOURS. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST SATURDAY AND THE WARM ADVECTION DECREASES. SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL BE AROUND AVERAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2009/ AVIATION...18Z KGRI TAF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ON THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TO THE SOUTH...DO NOT SEE CONDITIONS CHANGING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD AFTER SUNSET OF THE CLOUDS TO BREAK...BUT CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL RETURN THE LOW CIGS. DO EXPECT SOME FOG AND SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 AND VSBYS AOB 1SM. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN IFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. -KISNER && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
