Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45

FXUS63 KGID 252012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

...Warmer or Much Warmer Than Normal Temps Cont for the Next Week
with Most Locations Remaining Bone Dry...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Aloft: A ridge was over the Plains with a weak shortwave trof
moving thru it. WV imagery showed this trof from WY-CO-NM. This
trof will move thru tonight. The ridge will retrograde to the
Rockies in its wake tomorrow with NW flow over the Plains.

Surface: Cyclogenesis was underway. Low pres will emerge into Neb
this eve and will cross SE Neb tonight on its way into IA. A warm
front will E/SE from this low but there will be no real cool
front. Just a trailing trof/dryline near Hwy 283 at 19Z. This trof
will cross the fcst area tonight. Weak high pres will temporarily
nose into the region tomorrow.

Another very warm day was in progress with breezy SE winds
gusting up to 25 kts at times over the SE 1/2 of the fcst area.
The fog that develop W of Hwy 183 lifted into a stubborn bank of
stratus that has been slow to erode. This has kept temps cooler
with MCK at 55F and LXN at 60 at 19Z.

Until Sunset: P-M/cloudy. Probably dry. As mentioned in the 1259
pm version of this EML/cap has advected over the
region. Temps will peak 75-84F over much of the fcst area with
dwpts 55-61F. With very steep (8C/km) mid-lvl lapse rates above
this...MLCAPE should maximize as high as 1500 J/kg. However...
forcing associated with the trof is weak. Mesoanalysis shows CINH
less than -100 J/kg ...and we are approaching peak heating.

We might see an isolated shwr/tstm E of hwy 281...but don`t bet
on it. The cap will probably prevent/delay convective initiation
long enough for the sfc convergence/trof to be E and S of the fcst
area. Anything that develops will probably be after sunset and
will be over Ern Neb and/or Ern/Cntrl KS. That is exactly what the
HRRR and HRRRX are showing.

W of Hwy 281 over Neb there`s zero chance of rain.

Low temps tonight still way above normal (15-20F).

Wed: Back to very nice wx with high temps still 10F above normal.
NW winds will be a little brisk thru early afternoon (12-16 mph).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Aloft: A ridge will dominate over the Cntrl USA which means above
to much above normal warmth will cont. A shortwave trof will move
in off the Pac and thru the ridge Fri night into Sat. Another
weaker trof is slated to move thru Mon.

Surface: A cool front will make its way thru the Wrn USA the next
few days. Low pres will form and move E thru the Nrn Plains Fri-
Sat. The cool front will move thru Fri night into Sat morning.
High pres will briefly nose in Sat-Sun with the next low forming
and cool frontal passage occurring Mon.

There is no end in sight to the anomalous warmth. Thu-Fri and Mon
are looking incredibly warm (at least 20F and close to 25F Fri).
Raised temps above fcst initialization Fri in coord with
neighboring offices. Mon we are probably not warm enough yet but
there`s time.

No high-impact/hazardous wx is currently foreseen...but fire wx
could be a concern if winds can coincide with low RH. No obvious
threat are seen yet.

There is no potential for even minor rainfall. This will go down
as one of the driest Oct`s on record at GRI (and likely many other


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Significant Wx: WSHFT to W 23Z-02Z but with light wind speeds.

This Afternoon: VFR with increasing clouds. SCT CU will form
around 4K ft and lift to 5K ft. Then patchy multi-layered clouds
will increase at or above 10K ft. SE winds 10-15 kts with gusts to
near 20 kts initially will diminish. Expect WSHFT to W at EAR
around 23Z. There could be an isolated shwr or tstm DSNT NE or E
of both terminals. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR decreasing clouds from W-E. Lgt mainly W winds will
become NW after 06Z. Confidence: High

Wed thru 18Z: VFR. Just a couple shreds of cirrostratus possible
around 25K ft. NW winds increase 12-15 kts. Could see a few gusts
to 20 kts after 14Z. Confidence: High




LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.