Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 011725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1125 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

WE HAVE NOTED THE BLIZZARD CONDS AT GRI/AUH AND OCCASIONAL AT HSI.
AFTER IN-HOUSE COORDINATION...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A BLZD
WARNING AS THE EVENT IS DRAWING TO AN END AND VSBYS WILL BE
IMPROVING FROM THE W. SEE ODX AND EAR.

WE WILL BE EXTENDING AT LEAST PART OF OUR HEADLINES INTO THE
AFTERNOON PENDING COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 828 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONT AS POSTED AND AN UPDATED WSW WAS SENT AT
750 AM TO SET DAYTIME EXPECTATIONS. LIGHT SN WILL CONT TO FALL FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ESSENTIALLY DONE.
WE NOW SETTLE INTO CLEAN-UP...WHICH WILL BE HAMPERED BY BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS...SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING SNOW.

TRAVEL IS DANGEROUS. TAKE IT SLOW.

REAL WINTER WX HAS FINALLY MADE A NASTY APPEARANCE HERE.

WE JUST PUBLISHED A SUBSTANTIAL FCST UPDATE. FCST TEMPS/DWPTS WERE
RUNNING TOO HIGH COMPARED TO REALITY. SO BLENDED CURRENT OBS WITH
CONSENSUS OF HI-RES HOURLY MODELS. THE HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
OCCURRED FOR THE DAY. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL.

41 KTS AT HSI AT 745 AM.

NEAR BLIZZARD CONDS ARE BRIEFLY OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF TOWNS/CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
ONGOING WINTER STORM. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS NOW PASSED OFF
TO OUR EAST TAKING THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH IT. HOWEVER...LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST AREAS AND EVEN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ZONES. STRONG NORTH WINDS (25
TO 35 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH) HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON.

NEW SNOW...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 AM THROUGH NOON
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM ONE HALF INCH TO 1 INCH IN THE TRI-
CITIES...WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN
NEBRASKA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES
THROUGH NOON WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. MOST OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE DONE BY NOON...WITH JUST ANOTHER DUSTING
UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 281 IN NEBRASKA.

WIND/VISIBILITY/WIND CHILL ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING AND THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
THAT GRADIENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR A NORTH WIND OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN RESULTING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL AS
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. THE SNOW THAT HAS FALLEN SINCE
MIDNIGHT WAS A DRIER SNOW AND HAS BEEN REALLY BLOWING AROUND.
ANYONE THAT DOES BECOME STRANDED ON AREA ROADWAYS WILL WANT TO BE
PREPARED FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS WILL WIND CHILL VALUES.

TONIGHT...THE WIND WILL DIE DOWN AND SKIES WILL CLEAR ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET WITH THIS FRESH SNOW COVER. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO FROM AROUND THE TRI
CITIES NORTHEAST WITH SOME NORTHEASTERN ZONES NEARING 10 BELOW
ZERO FOR ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. BELIEVE IT OR NOT IT REALLY WAS
AROUND 70 DEGREES JUST 4 DAYS AGO.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST ON MONDAY.
WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND WITH A PRETTY GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD INCREASE. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT VERY STRONG
SO EXPECT JUST BREEZY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION
SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE WARMER...BUT MAINLY IN THE
WEST. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE WEAK WARM ADVECTION.

BY TUESDAY THE MODELS START TO HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS AND
STRENGTHS OF THE LOW. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. IN THE
NORTHEAST TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S. THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT HOW WARM WILL THEY GET? SOME OF THE
SNOW WILL MELT IN THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL ONLY MELT A LITTLE...IF ANY. BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS
SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WILL REALLY HAVE TO
WATCH HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO SEE HOW MUCH THEY WILL WARM.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. COLDER
AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT
AND MOISTURE INCREASES. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH
DURING THE NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE SNOW SHOULD PUSH FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE COLDER AIR WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA MAKING FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT.

THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE WILL BE NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY
WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE AND WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL START A WARM UP. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE COLD BUT
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THESE FOR NOW. IF THERE IS STILL ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND THE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MON AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: -SN CONTS TO FALL BUT WILL END 21Z-00Z.
HOWEVER...VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST DUE TO BLSN. NNW WINDS WILL CONT
TO GUST 30-40 KTS. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FROM THE W.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR TO VFR. NW
WINDS DRASTICALLY DECREASE THEN SHIFT TO SW UNDER 10 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON THRU 18Z: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS INVADE AND GRADUALLY DESCEND
DOWN TO 10K FT. SSW WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
     047-060>062-073>076-084>086.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ041-048-049-063-
     064-077-087.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ006-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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