Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 211238
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
638 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Winter Storm Update...
The forecast models are indicating another slight shift in storm
track towards the southeast...which is putting more of our
forecast area under the gun for heavy 6 plus inch snowfall
amounts. The 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS are both indicating a big swath
of 10 to 15 inch snowfall amounts for the area that we upgraded to
a blizzard warning. The NAM model and some of the higher
resolution models continue to be just a little further northwest
than the GFS and ECMWF regarding the heaviest snowfall area, but
have also been trending southeast.

Upgraded to Blizzard Warning and expanded headlines southeast due
to slight shift in storm track.

Blizzard Warning...
Model guidance is pretty clear that we should see sustained north
northwest winds around 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph late
tonight into Monday. These strong winds along with improving
confidence in seeing significant snowfall amounts was enough to
warrant the upgrade to blizzard warning. The falling snow and wind
is expected to persist for numerous hours allowing for
significant blowing and drifting snow and a prolonged period of
poor visibility of less than one quarter mile and likely near zero
in rural areas by late tonight into Monday. Drifts of 3 to 5 feet
are certainly possible in rural areas within the blizzard warned
area.

Possible winter headline adjustments...
If the NAM and other higher resolution models continue the tend to
shift the heavier snowband further southeast and eventually more
in line with the latest 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF, then an expansion
of the blizzard warning towards the southeast may become needed.
Some counties to keep an eye on for a possible upgrade to a
blizzard warning if this more southeasterly track holds include:
York, Clay, Webster, Smith, and Rooks.

Winter weather advisory area...
This is a high end advisory for some of these counties, especially
those located near the blizzard warning that could still see 3 to
5 inches of snow given the strong winds. There is more
uncertainty in snowfall amounts within the advisory area with a
greater model spread that will hopefully become more clear as the
storm nears. There will likely be a rather sharp snowfall gradient
somewhere within the advisory area where we could see amounts
range from 1 inch to 6 inches within 25 miles.

Freezing drizzle potential... Temperatures overnight have for the
most part remained just above freezing in most areas and thus we
have been seeing drizzle rather than freezing drizzle.
Temperatures will likely remain rather steady until the snow moves
in later this afternoon or evening and thus most areas will see
more drizzle than freezing drizzle. Therefore, no headline is
currently in effect for freezing drizzle this morning, but if
temperatures would slip 2 or 3 degrees today then a winter
headline may still be needed.

Winter storm impacts...
People within the blizzard warned area should plan on many roads
especially in rural areas being impassible by late tonight into
Monday morning. Snow removal on Monday will be difficult given the
continued strong winds into the afternoon even after the snow
diminishes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 419 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Unlike past snowfalls this winter, there is not any really cold
air behind this system. High temperatures are expected to get
above freezing each day through Saturday allowing for steady
melting of the new snow.

The next storm system does not appear to be a big deal at this
point in time and should swing through sometime Friday afternoon
or Friday night with some small chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday)
Issued at 545 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A major winter storm is on track to start impacting the area as
early as late this afternoon and especially into tonight. We will
see drizzle spread across the area this morning with perhaps a
little freezing drizzle as well. The worst of blizzard conditions
will likely move in after midnight and last through Monday
morning. Prior to the snow expect low ceilings and visibility
throughout much of the forecast period with IFR and LIFR conditions
expected. Snowfall totals at both KEAR and KGRI by Monday
afternoon will likely range from 8 to 10 inches and possibly even
over one foot with wind gusts to around 45 mph.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
     Monday for NEZ064-076-077-085>087.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ077-085>087.

     Blizzard Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Monday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST
     Monday for KSZ006-007-017>019.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ005>007-017>019.

     Blizzard Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Monday for
     KSZ005.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely


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