530
FXUS63 KGLD 110704
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
104 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm this weekend with highs in the 80s and low 90s. Winds are
  forecast to gusts between 30-40 mph with a few gusts to 50
  mph possible on Saturday.

- Some showers and maybe a storms or two are possible over the
  weekend. Overall chances are around 15-20%.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast through next week with
  highs in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. May see breezy winds again
  around mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 101 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Overall, not much has changed with the forecast for today as the
upper level ridge continues to move over the Great Plains. With the
ridge axis moving east of the High Plains, moisture from a system
over the Desert Southwest will push across the Rockies keeping
scattered to broken cloud cover over the area for much of the day.
It`s possible we could see some clearing during the late morning to
afternoon hours, but confidence is on the lower end looking at GOES
satellite imagery and the flow over the area. The near surface low
along the Front Range is expected to strengthen, bringing breezy
conditions with southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph to the Tri-State
area beginning as early as 8 AM through the evening hours. If we see
the clearing occur, wind speeds could nudge up closer to 50 mph.
Winds will decrease during the evening to overnight hours as the
wind directions become more southwesterly and gusts up to 25 mph
once the winds shift.

During the afternoon hours, there is a slight chance (less than 20%)
for showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm to move into our East-
Central Colorado, nearby Kansas, and Nebraska counties through ~6 PM
MDT. Very little to no accumulation is anticipated. High
temperatures are expected to be in the 80s across the Tri-State
area this afternoon with overnight lows falling into the 50s
along and west of the Colorado border and the low to mid 60s
along and east of Kansas Highway 25.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Sunday, the surface front/low is forecast to push through the area
as the upper trough continues to push east and north. As it does so,
drier and colder air should be pulled into the area. For the
northwestern half of the area, this will likely lead to a dry day
with temperatures in the 70s and low 80s, along with northerly winds
around 15-25 mph and gusts to 40 mph. For locales closer to Central
Kansas, temperatures will still warm into the 80s with a few showers
possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be cooler in the wake of the
front and with broad upper troughing across much of the Western
United States and Plains. Highs are currently forecast to be in the
50s and 60s with lows in the upper 30s and 40s. Currently, the
chance for freezing temperatures is less than 10%, with few ensemble
members showing the higher pressure/colder air mass being strong
enough to give us our first freeze. There could be additional
chances for showers and storms as the broad trough may shift the
moisture that has been in the southwest more over the area, albeit
the high pressure will probably hinder precip development.

The mid to end part of the week is less certain. Another more
concentrated trough is forecast to develop during the early part of
the week over the West Coast. However, guidance shows a decent
spread on when it will advance east into the Plains. The current
consensus is similar to what will happen this weekend and early next
week. A more pronounced trough will move east, developing and
pushing a surface low system through the area. It would then lift
north while another trough develops over the west coast. Currently
have the forecast somewhat similar with breezier winds and high
temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Thursday or Friday could see highs
in the 50s and lows in the 30s if timing holds and the trough is
deep enough. Will need to watch for the potential wind threat and
chance of first freeze.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions are forecast over KGLD and KMCK for the TAF
period. Southeasterly winds at both sites are currently
sustained around 10-15 kts and should remain through sunrise
before becoming more breezy after 14Z out of the south at 15-20
kts with gusts to 35 kts possible through the end of the period.
However, this is dependent on breaks in the clouds during the
afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK