Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
889 FXUS62 KMFL 111156 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 756 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 The upper levels across the eastern CONUS are characterized by a high amplitude trough with several shortwaves consolidating at its base across the Southeast and eastern Gulf. At the surface, an elongated reflection stretches from the extreme southeast Gulf, across South Florida, and into the southwest Atlantic. This troughing will be responsible for the most robust convection this morning through the afternoon that should remain focused south of Alligator Alley, and move off into the Atlantic by mid to late afternoon. As the western Atlantic frontal system matures through the afternoon and overnight, it will wrap a frontal boundary through South Florida. As it does, a few showers may pop up along the front, but generally low rain chances are forecast along the front. In the wake of the boundary, drier air will move into the region with dewpoints falling into the upper 60s. Sunday should remain rain free with highs in the middle 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 The upper trough won`t completely lift out of the Southeast as the associated potential vorticity elongates and fractures. The northern half will lift into the northern Atlantic while the southern half advects around the Deep South ridge axis back into the Gulf. Essentially, this means there will be some synoptic forcing for ascent as well as weak surface reflections through next week which will preclude a completely dry forecast. However, deep layer dry air should mean that the chances for widespread thunderstorm activity or heavy rain remain low. Instead, the most likely scenario through the week will be isolated light showers from time to time that are mostly confined to areas south of Alligator Alley. Highs and lows will remain near seasonal norms, with generally low RH through much if not all of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 754 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Brief periods of LIFR/IFR early this morning as low cloud decks roll out across the region ahead of a front. Conditions should begin to improve after 13-14Z. Some chance for SHRA later this afternoon, but most of it should stay offshore. Generally westerly/northwesterly winds prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 A trough axis across south Florida results in northerly winds across the Gulf waters, with WSW winds over the Atlantic waters. Later tonight, a front will pass through south Florida, with winds turning northerly across all coastal and offshore waters. Winds will keep a northerly component through at least mid-week. Northerly swell along the west side of the developing western Atlantic low will result in a brief period of advisory level seas today across our Palm Beach county waters. Cautionary level seas should persist in this area through the weekend. Rain chances will decrease after today with the passage of the aforementioned front. && .BEACHES... Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Northerly swell from the developing low will create a brief period of higher seas that could result in 2-4` breakers this weekend along the Palm Beaches. With the elevated surf comes the heightened risk for strong and frequent rip currents as well. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 As expected, the high tide crests are gradually falling. A coastal flood statement will remain in effect through the weekend due to high tides expected to reach Minor flooding levels each cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 71 86 72 / 70 20 10 10 West Kendall 84 70 86 70 / 70 20 20 10 Opa-Locka 85 71 87 72 / 70 20 20 10 Homestead 84 70 86 71 / 70 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 84 70 85 72 / 60 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 84 71 86 72 / 60 20 10 10 Pembroke Pines 86 71 88 72 / 70 20 20 10 West Palm Beach 84 70 84 71 / 60 20 10 0 Boca Raton 85 70 86 71 / 60 20 10 10 Naples 86 70 85 69 / 20 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Harrigan LONG TERM....Harrigan AVIATION...99