676
FXUS64 KMOB 041122
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
522 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

-Small Craft should exercise caution the rest of tonight into
Tuesday morning.

-Above seasonable temperatures expected in the coming week.

-Strong thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Now through Monday...

Upper level high pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf coast
builds east over northern Gulf through mid week, with the upper
pattern becoming zonal over the Southeast. A surface ridge shifts
east to over eastern portions of the Southeast before stalling,
bringing a light southeast to southerly low level flow back to the
western half of the Southeast. An opening upper low over the
southern Gulf keeps the onshore flow from organizing too much and in
combination with upper level high pressure over the Southeast
proper, moisture return is limited until Thursday. Thursday into the
weekend, onshore flow increase, with moisture levels increasing,
into the 1.3"-1.6" range for Friday into Saturday morning. Add in
shortwave energy moving through the zonal flow, digging a shallow
upper trough over the Southeast and a return of showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area Friday into Saturday is realized.
Looking at the ingredients for strong to severe storms, MLCape rises
into the 1000-1500J/kg range, with EBWD shear around 40kts. Upper
divergence remains weak and well north of the northern Gulf coast.
Directional wind shear shear is modest, around 100-200m^2/s^s in the
sfc-1km layer. Will need to monitor for strong to severe storms for
this time frame. From Saturday on, a surface cold front moves across
the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a drop in
temperatures for the beginning of the coming week, to well below
seasonal norms.

Temperatures above seasonal norms dominate most of the forecast.
High temperatures in the low/mid 70s Tuesday rise into the upper
70s/low 80s for Friday and Saturday. As the passing cold front
ushers in colder airmass, high temperatures fall into the low to mid
60s for Monday. Low temperatures see the same rise and fall, with
low/mid 40s north of Highway 84 Tuesday night and upper 40s/low 50s
south rise into the upper 50s/mid 60s for Friday night. Low 40s to
around 50 return for Sunday night.

Offshore winds last into Tuesday, then light onshore winds will
counter-balance an increasing tidal cycle to keep the risk of rip
currents low into the end of the week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Light to moderate northerly winds last into Tuesday as a
surface ridge passes over, then settles east of the forecast area,
bringing light east to southeast winds. A light to moderate onshore
flow returns the end of the week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  48  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   73  55  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  58  75  61 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   76  43  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  73  42  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      73  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   75  45  78  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$