246
FXUS64 KMOB 032303
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
503 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 501 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

  - Periods of heavy rain are expected Thursday through Saturday
    with the potential of localized flooding.

  - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents on
    Friday for the beaches of Alabama and the western Florida
    Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low clouds have finally cleared out of the area as of midday. The
extended period of cloud cover this morning has delayed our
warming with most areas still in the mid to upper 40s as of noon.
We nudged down the previous forecast high temperatures a few
degrees and most locations should top out in the low to mid 50s
this afternoon.

Upper level flow will transition to a more southwesterly flow
over the next 24 hours and persist through the weekend. A series
of embedded shortwaves will move across the region in this
pattern, setting the stage for a very wet end of the week. The
first shortwave will begin to impact us overnight tonight into
Thursday. Rain will develop and spread in from west to east after
midnight through Thursday in response to increasing southwest flow
above the surface and strengthening isentropic lift. This
combined with an impressive return of deep layer moisture (PWATs
increasing to 1.5-1.75") will mean that periods of moderate to
heavy rain are expected. After this first round of rain, we may
see periods of less coverage and intensity in the rain Thursday
night through Friday night, but details are uncertain and hinge on
the timing of the subtle embedded shortwaves. Bottom line is that
that high rain chances will persist. We will also be monitoring a
surface low that is forecast to develop over SE LA late Friday
night and move toward the Florida Panhandle Friday morning. As the
low develops, a warm front will move north toward the coast. At
this point, it appears that the best instability will remain
offshore, thus limiting the threat for strong to severe storms
along the immediate coast. However, we will continue to monitor
this closely. There is no concern for severe weather further
inland. By Saturday and Saturday night, it appears the best focus
for additional rain will be along and southeast of the I-65
corridor as a stronger shortwave approaches from the west. Rain
chances are expected to diminish in earnest from west to east by
Sunday as a longwave upper level trough amplifies over the eastern
half of the country. We should then see dry weather as we head
into early next week.

Rainfall totals of 2-4" are increasingly likely over parts of the
area and we cannot rule out isolated totals as high as 6".
Guidance continues to differ on exactly where the band of heaviest
rain will occur, so there is some uncertainty there. However, the
latest probabilistic guidance indicates the highest probabilities
of seeing 4" of rain currently resides along and southeast of the
I-65 corridor (30-50% chance).

Did we mention it`s going to be a cold rain? It definitely will
be, especially on Thursday with highs only topping out in the
upper 40s well inland to mid/upper 50s on the immediate coast. We
may get temperatures to briefly reach the upper 60s to near 70
along the immediate coast on Friday with the warm front, but that
will be short lived. High temperatures will likely be at or below
normal for the weekend through early next week with lows in the
30s returning by Monday night. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail early this evening. Clouds and lower
ceilings will move into the area tonight with chances of rain
increasing after midnight. IFR conditions can be expected for much
of the area after 12Z as low ceilings and rain spread across the
area. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Light north to northeast winds today will shift northeasterly to
easterly tonight and gradually increase through Thursday along
with building seas. A brief period of moderate onshore flow is
likely over the Gulf waters Friday morning as a surface low and
warm front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle. We cannot rule
out a few strong storms over the open Gulf waters Friday morning.

A general light offshore over the weekend will likely strengthen
by Monday as a strong surface high builds in from the north.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      42  52  47  59 /  40  90  90  90
Pensacola   47  56  51  68 /  30  80  90  90
Destin      48  57  52  70 /  20  80  80 100
Evergreen   37  51  43  59 /  10  90  90  90
Waynesboro  36  47  40  51 /  40  90 100  70
Camden      34  48  40  52 /  10  80  90  80
Crestview   39  51  45  65 /  10  80  90  90

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$