160
FXUS66 KMTR 231750
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
950 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Dry and mild this week with stratus overnight and through the
   morning

 - Gradual warming trend through Thanksgiving with highs near or
   slightly above seasonal averages

 - Confidence increasing for a drier outcome for the storm at the
   end of this week

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1252 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
(Today and tonight)

Satellite imagery shows stratus development across the Sonoma County
valleys and western Marin County, hugging the coast of San Francisco
and San Mateo Counties, and isolated patches developing in the
Berkeley-Richmond area, the Santa Clara Valley, and the southern
Monterey Peninsula. Data from the profiler at Bodega Bay and careful
analysis of surface observations suggests a marine layer depth of
around 500-1000 feet. The forecast update calls for the stratus
layer to expand across Napa Valley, the Bay Area, the southern
Monterey Bay, and the northern Salinas Valley through the rest of
the night, before retreating to the immediate coast during the day.

The large-scale flow is rather zonal (west-to-east) today as an
upper level low moves northeastward across the Four Corners states.
Temperatures will be close to the seasonal averages with high
temperatures in the middle to upper 60s inland and the middle 50s to
lower 60s along the Pacific and Bayside coasts. Low temperatures
this morning and tonight will lie in the upper 30s to middle 40s in
the inland valleys, and the middle 40s to near 50 along the coast. A
gentle onshore breeze develops in the afternoon but is not expected
to be very strong, with gusts reaching 20 to 25 miles per hour at
most along favored coastal locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1252 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025
(Monday through Saturday)

Conditions remain very similar on Monday, before a building ridge
aloft brings a gradual warming trend for Tuesday into Thanksgiving
(Thursday), compressing the marine layer and raising temperatures by
a few degrees. The warmest spots of the inland valleys (think the
Morgan Hill-Gilroy region and the southern Salinas Valley) might
touch the lower 70s on Thanksgiving day itself.

Towards the end of the week, a pattern change will occur as the
ridge over the western United States breaks down, and one amplifies
upstream across the Gulf of Alaska. As a result, cold Arctic air
descends into the Mountain West and Central Plains states. Although
there is still a chance for more significant rainfall, ensemble
model cluster analysis continues to lean towards a drier solution
for our region, as the trough axis develops further to the east and
potentially gives us a solution closer to an inside slider than a
big rainmaker. If this were the case, the main threat would be gusty
offshore winds at and beyond the end of the 7-day forecast. As
always, follow future forecast updates as a slight change in the
track of the system could result in very different outcomes locally
and, for those planning some Thanksgiving holiday travel, across the
nation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

A mix bag of LIFR to MVFR conditions across much of the region this
morning before conditions return to VFR by late morning or early
afternoon. Expecting weak onshore flow to develop by this afternoon
becoming light and variable into Monday morning. Moderate confidence
for MVFR ceilings to develop around the Monterey Bay terminals late
this evening and Bay Area terminals early Monday morning. Greater
confidence for the North Bay and Monterey Bay terminals to see
LIFR/IFR conditions Monday morning before conditions return to VFR
by Monday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR currently, expected to return to VFR by late
morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase slightly during
the afternoon before diminishing early Monday morning. Moderate
confidence for MVFR ceilings to return early Monday morning before
clearing by late morning or early afternoon. Onshore winds increase
once again Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to return
late this morning and prevail through this evening before MVFR
ceilings return. Ceilings and/or visibilities lower to LIFR/IFR
early Monday morning with winds becoming light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

Moderate seas will persist through Sunday night with hazardous
marine conditions. Seas then gradually ease through the middle of
the week with gentle to moderate northerly breezes. Winds begin to
increase along with building seas by the end of the week into
next weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 948 AM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening. A
long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk
for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18
feet are expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run
significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over
rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and
stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-
     509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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