921
FXUS66 KMTR 162201
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
201 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - A strong cold front with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain expected
   overnight. Slight chance of thunderstorms (20-30%) tonight
   into Monday.

 - Drier and cooler weather returns Tuesday-Wednesday.

 - Next weather system brings beneficial rain late Wednesday
   through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(This evening through Monday)

We`re in between weather systems this afternoon as the upper level
low from Saturday pushes east and the next system advances from the
west. A cold front will bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy
rain, spreading from north to south tonight. The heaviest rain
should occur between midnight and 4AM, which will be accompanied
with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms. Any storms that occur may
bring with it heavier pockets of rain, gusty and erratic winds, and
lightning. Rain chances begin to ease towards the morning though
rain will still be occuring during the morning commute before
tapering off later in the day. The North Bay Mountains and Santa
Cruz Mountains look to receive an additional 1-2.5" of rain Sunday
night into Monday while the Santa Lucia Range receives an additional
2-3". For the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast, totals will
generally range from 0.5-1.25" Sunday night into Monday. With the
thunderstorm chances and the potential NCFR tonight, combined with
already saturated soils, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 1 of 4) has been issued for nearly all portions of the
service area. The exception will be for the Santa Lucia where a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4) is forecast. The
most likely type of flooding we`ll see is nuisance flooding,
especially in poor drainage, low laying, or urban areas. If you
encounter flooding while driving or encounter a road closure due to
flooding, do not attempt to drive through it instead find a
different route.

The last impact not covered yet is wind. Winds will slowly ramp up
this evening, with a quick burst of stronger winds overnight. Peak
wind gusts will generally be around 30-35 mph, with locally higher
gusts possible along the immediate coast, the higher elevations, and
mountain gaps/passes (Altamont Pass region).

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 158 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
(Monday night through next Saturday)

Brief upper level ridging builds into the region late Monday/early
Tuesday and holds through most of Wednesday. This will bring a brief
period of cooler and drier weather with high temperatures maxing out
in the upper 50s to low 60s in the valleys and the mid 40s to upper
50s for the higher elevations. Overnight lows will be chilly as
well, with interior Central Coast temperatures dipping into the 30s,
while the rest of the area flirts in the 40s.

Another upper level trough is set to arrive to the west coast,
which will bring renewed chances of beneficial rain to the region.
Amounts generally look to be about 0.25-0.75" for the North Bay
counties, Santa Lucia, and and Santa Cruz mountains. Elsewhere,
amounts range from 0.10-0.40".

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

Mid-level clouds with spotty MVFR CIGS linger through the day with
some passing light showers into the afternoon. Expect light winds
into the afternoon but southerly winds build through the afternoon
and continue to increase into the night ahead of the next cold
front. Winds and gusts peak as the front passes over the terminals
overnight and into Monday morning, with gusts ranging from 25 to 25
kts possible. The main rain band of the front will offer moderate
to, at times, heavy rain, leading to reductions in visibilities.
Lighter showers linger behind the front and winds weaken, but stay
moderate to breezy later into Monday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR CIGs scatter into the afternoon but mid-level
clouds last through the day. Winds turn southerly for the afternoon
and increase into the night as the first few pre-frontal showers
arrive. Strong winds and gusts affect the terminal later into the
night with gusts above 30 kts. Winds reduce in the wake of the main
rain band

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Scattered low clouds and broken mid-level
clouds last through the day. Light to moderate southwest winds build
into the afternoon but turn more southerly and southeasterly into
the evening and become breezy and gusty. MVFR Clouds build into the
night. CIGs rise as the main rain band arrives into the night. The
rain band will cause reduced visibilities and offer the strongest
winds. Behind the front, winds turn westerly and stay breezy with
lingering light showers.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 952 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

Passing light showers linger through through the day. Expect
building southerly winds that become breezy to gusty into the
night. Winds will shift to a strong NW breeze as a new cold front
arrives. This front will cause occasional gale force gusts, very
rough seas, and poor visibility in heavy rain. There is also
chances for thunderstorms as the front moves through. Conditions
will improve Wednesday before very high WNW swell rolls in
Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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