893
FXUS64 KOHX 291059
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
459 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Widespread rain showers expected Saturday night into Sunday
  morning, then again Monday night into Tuesday morning. Forecast
  total rainfall through Tuesday is 0.5"-1.5".

- Low to medium chances of light snow across northwest portions of
  Middle Tennessee Tuesday morning. Chances for 1.0" or greater
  accumulation are very low (<20%) at this time.

- Temperatures remain below-normal for the next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Lower clouds are streaming across the area from the west tonight,
but temperatures will still be cold overnight. Lows will be in the
20s and possibly as low as the upper teens in areas east of I-65.

A trough will track through the Ohio Valley over the weekend,
bringing rain chances to middle Tennessee. Saturday afternoon looks
to be the timeframe rain will start in our NW areas, moving east
into Sunday. Looking at specifics, current guidance continues to
drop, with most likely QPF amounts looking to be 0.3" or less across
Middle Tennessee. Highest amounts will be in the northwestern part
of our area. Temperatures will briefly be warmer overnight Saturday
night before turning freezing again into the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The overall pattern will remain on the active side. A shortwave to
the north and surface low along the gulf coast will interact with
each other and bring a large swath of precipitation from the
southeast to the eastern seaboard. Guidance continues to back off on
wintry precipitation in the mid-state, nevertheless, we continue to
monitor it. Right now, a dusting is about a medium chance (40 - 60%)
in the area west of I-65 and north of I-40, with probabilities of
over half an inch in 24 hours decreasing to low-medium (20-40%).
That being said, there is still a lot of variability, but I am
pleased to see the location of the wintry precipitation not changing
drastically in the past 24 hours of model runs. Wintry precipitation
aside, a good soaking rainfall across Middle Tennessee seems likely
with this system even if your area doesn`t see the flakes fly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions this morning with some high clouds moving in.
Increasing cloud cover today with CIGs around 5,000 ft ahead of an
approaching front. The front arrives after 21z today in the west
and spreads east through tonight. Expecting mostly VFR conditions
along with rain showers. MVFR CIGs develop post front after 10z
tonight. Gusty SE winds around 20 mph today becoming SW tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  37  45  26 /  20  60  20   0
Clarksville    48  32  40  24 /  50  80  10   0
Crossville     45  35  43  20 /   0  50  40   0
Columbia       51  37  47  23 /  20  60  20   0
Cookeville     48  35  45  22 /  10  60  40   0
Jamestown      46  35  44  22 /   0  50  40   0
Lawrenceburg   51  38  47  23 /  10  60  20   0
Murfreesboro   51  37  48  23 /  10  50  30   0
Waverly        47  31  42  22 /  50  80  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Cravens