098
FXUS64 KOHX 061125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
525 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Low to medium chances for light rain by Sunday evening with a
  rain/snow mix possible late Sunday night into Monday morning.
  No accumulations expected.

- Continued below-normal temperatures through the next several
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

It was a chilly, gloomy late evening with temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s. A stagnant pattern is expected through the night
with weak surface high pressure. A strong inversion shown on the
OHX 00Z sounding around 925mb will keep low clouds and somewhat
foggy conditions locked in place. Temperatures will slip just a
few degrees to the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Saturday.
There is some risk for patchy freezing fog overnight where the low
clouds break, but for the most part the clouds will stay in place
and preclude dense fog formation.

The wx will stay dry Saturday. Clouds will hang around in the
morning. Just enough south wind will develop in the afternoon
with passage of weak shortwave to (hopefully) mix out some of the
low clouds and warm temps into the mid 40s to around 50s. Lows
Saturday night will drop to the lower 30s.

A couple of weak shortwave disturbances will move across the area
Sunday through Sunday night with patchy light precipitation. South
winds ahead of the first wave will help warm temps a little more
for Sunday with mostly lower 50s. A cold front will follow with
cooler temps Sunday night and Monday. So, any light precip on
Sunday will be rain, but the colder air may bring a few snowflakes
Sunday night into early Monday. No accumulations are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Broad high pressure builds over the east US Tuesday warming us
back into the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper level trough will
dig out of Canada into the Great Lakes mid to late week. This will
bring low rain chances but there is quite a bit of uncertainty on
timing and placement of this trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

BNA and MQY are currently reporting VFR, but IFR cigs are knocking
on the door per satellite imagery. I`ve started the TAFs off with
this low stratus which will persist through the morning before a
transition to MVFR for the afternoon. Otherwise, it`s a mix of
cloud cover for Middle TN airports today, though SRB and CSV have
the best chance for afternoon clearing and VFR. Low confidence on
how cigs and sky cover play out tonight, but MVFR has been
advertised at BNA, MQY and CKV. Winds are light through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      48  35  55  34 /   0   0  20  40
Clarksville    47  34  52  31 /   0  10  20  30
Crossville     44  31  50  32 /   0   0  10  50
Columbia       47  33  54  34 /   0   0  20  30
Cookeville     43  32  50  32 /   0   0  20  50
Jamestown      43  31  50  31 /   0   0  10  50
Lawrenceburg   47  32  52  35 /   0   0  20  30
Murfreesboro   45  32  53  34 /   0   0  20  40
Waverly        45  34  51  31 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Sizemore