878
FXUS64 KOHX 070533
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1133 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1118 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Low chances for light rain Sunday night. A few snowflakes
  possible late night as a cold front passes. No accumulations
  expected.

- Next rain chance Wednesday night through Friday, possibly ending
  with some light snow showers.

- Up and down temperatures this week. An Arctic blast arriving
  late week with frigid temperatures next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Quiet, chilly conditions were in place Saturday night. Skies had
cleared in the evening, but some patchy clouds were returning.
Areas of "mist" are expected through daybreak with visibilities
generally 2 o 5 miles. However, some spots could see patchy dense
fog with visibilities less than 1/2 mile. Also, some of the foggy
locations will have freezing temperatures. Slick spots could
form, particularly on elevated surfaces like bridges. The most
likely places for patchy dense freezing fog will be across the
Plateau and in our southern counties. With the variable, localized
conditions, drivers are advised to be extra cautious through
early Sunday morning.

Clouds will thicken up again daytime Sunday as the next shortwave
disturbance approaches. Temperatures will be a little warmer
Sunday with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. The latest models keep
conditions dry through the daytime.

As the shortwave pulls a cold front into Middle TN Sunday night, a
band of deeper moisture will stream up from the southwest. This
"almost too late" band of moisture will result in a low chance
for light rain along the front, and perhaps a few harmless
snowflakes after the cold front passes. The main result of this
cold front will be dry and cooler conditions for Monday with
highs only in the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

After a very chilly start Tuesday, warm advection will kick in for
daytime Tuesday through Wednesday. Highs will warm near normal for
Tuesday then a little above normal for Wednesday. Wednesday will
be our "warmest" day of this forecast period, but it will also be
on the breezy side with southwest winds gusty to 25-30 mph.

This midweek "warmth" will occur ahead of a big pattern change. A
couple of waves will dive out of Central Canada as a deep longwave
trough forms over the eastern states. The first wave will bring a
chance for rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday. The second
system will bring rain showers starting late Thursday. But more
importantly, the second system will usher in an Arctic front that
will change rain showers to scattered snow showers Friday morning
as frigid air begins to arrive.

Generally, weekend lows are expected to be in the teens and 20s with
highs only in the 20s and 30s. Some areas may stay below freezing
throughout the entire weekend! These forecast values are still
several days in the future, so the specific numbers may change.
But, models are in good agreement that the coldest air (so far) of
the season is on the way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Surface high pressure has shifted to the east of Middle Tennessee,
so we will be picking up some weak return flow in the next few
hours. Meanwhile, earlier low clouds have dissipated much quicker
than expected, so now we are experiencing widespread radiation fog
(or freezing fog) that has become dense in a few areas. We do
still expect low ceilings to develop tomorrow at our non-Plateau
terminals as a surface boundary surges through the area. However,
PoPs remain very low, so there`s no mention of any active weather
in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      34  52  36  44 /   0  10  20  10
Clarksville    34  50  33  41 /   0  10  20   0
Crossville     29  49  34  40 /   0  10  30  10
Columbia       32  51  36  44 /   0  10  20   0
Cookeville     31  49  35  40 /   0  10  30   0
Jamestown      29  49  33  39 /   0  10  30  20
Lawrenceburg   32  50  37  44 /   0  10  20   0
Murfreesboro   31  50  36  44 /   0  10  20  10
Waverly        33  49  33  41 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Rose