726
FXUS64 KOHX 092328
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
528 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 515 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Look for warmer temperatures and breezy conditions on
  Wednesday.

- There is a very low chance for light rain/snow on the Upper
  Cumberland Wednesday night behind our next frontal passage. Stay
  tuned for the latest.

- Coldest air of the season is expected Sunday night, with lows
  in the teens and lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Oh, look at that. The sun does still exist. If you live in Middle
TN, you were starting to question it. Clouds have finally thinned
out and the sun made its grand reappearance this morning. We still
have some high clouds around, and while we had a chilly start to the
day, southerly flow will allow the sun to warm us up today and
tomorrow. In fact tomorrow, we might actually climb back above
seasonal normals. The problem with all of this, the warmup is ahead
of a cold front that is expected to swing through here tomorrow and
the surface pressure gradient will tighten up ahead of the front.
That means south to southwest winds are going to be gusty both days,
so it may not feel quite as warm as it otherwise would. Models are
mostly dry with this frontal passage on Wednesday. NBM is
spitting out some low rain chances, but I`m looking at forecast
soundings from the GFS and NAM and wondering whether or not the
Upper Cumberland will have to worry about orographic lifting
tomorrow night. This could lead to snow accumulation with both of
these models suggesting the perfect wind fetch and soundings that
are saturated deeply enough (-8 to -10C is plenty cold enough for
ice crystal formation on the Plateau). I`d put this likelihood at
20% or less, but we`ll monitor this over the next 24 hours and
see where things stand at this time tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1016 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The bigger story of this forecast package is probably going to be
the next cold front due in here Saturday night and the CP airmass
that will follow. Rain chances have increased to medium Saturday
evening ahead of the front and the question will be whether the cold
air will match up with any precipitation. Right now, I`d say there`s
a low chance of this occurring on the Upper Cumberland Plateau.
Everyone else looks all liquidy. Behind the front, Canada will be
sending its best cold air mass and by Monday morning, we`re in for
some of the coldest temperatures of the season so far. NBM backed
off on the extreme-ness of these temperatures in the last couple of
runs, but it still looks like upper teens and low 20s for everyone
as the kids wait for the bus Monday morning. Current NBM probs
suggest a 50-70% chance of morning lows in the teens area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Surface high pressure has moved off to the east, and return flow
has kicked in across Middle Tennessee. Winds are expected to
increase overnight as the surface pressure gradient tightens up
ahead of an approaching cold front. We also expect LLWS to
develop later tonight and Wednesday morning as near-surface winds
increase prior to fropa, which will take place from late morning
through tomorrow afternoon. It is unlikely that any of the
terminals will be impacted by precipitation. Mostly we will see
just some additional mid and high cloudiness. Surface winds will
remain gusty through the day tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      39  55  29  44 /  10  10   0   0
Clarksville    39  52  27  42 /  10  20   0   0
Crossville     34  48  24  38 /   0  10   0   0
Columbia       37  56  27  45 /   0  10   0   0
Cookeville     35  51  27  38 /   0  20   0   0
Jamestown      35  48  25  36 /  10  20  10   0
Lawrenceburg   37  56  26  44 /   0  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   37  55  27  43 /   0  10   0   0
Waverly        38  53  27  42 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose