


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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275 FXUS64 KOHX 160357 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1057 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1038 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will return to Middle Tennessee this weekend. There is low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms in areas near the Tennessee River Saturday evening into Saturday night. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the week, peaking in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. - Look for significantly cooler temperatures from Sunday onward. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A surface ridge remains situated just to the northwest of Middle Tennessee tonight, with high pressure also situated aloft. The air mass remains quite stable across the region. The evening sounding from OHX shows an absence of any moist layers, although precipitable water has crept up to 1.28", which sits between the 75th and 90th percentiles climatologically. However, this is more a result of the air mass being so warm. Overnight, we don`t expect any appreciable radiation fog, and afternoon temperatures tomorrow will be similar today`s. The forecast remains dry through Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A developing cold front will approach Middle Tennessee on Saturday, with fropa expected late Saturday and early Sunday. So PoPs will return to the forecast by Saturday afternoon, with the best rain and storm chances occurring Saturday evening and overnight, then tapering off from west to east on Sunday. At this time, there is a severe weather risk over western portions of the mid state Saturday evening and maybe Saturday night just ahead of the actual surface boundary. In addition, there is a marginal to slight excessive rainfall risk Saturday and Saturday night in areas mainly west of the Cumberland Plateau. The 01Z NBM gives a 34% probability of 1+" of rainfall at BNA from 12Z Saturday until 12Z Sunday, with some QPF carrying over into Sunday. However, the flooding risk at this time appears to be quite low owing to the speed of this system and the lack of antecedent rainfall. Also, it is worth mentioning that record high temperatures are possible Saturday afternoon as warm air piles up ahead of the cold front, which does tend to occur with systems of this nature during the cool season. From Sunday onward, temperatures will cool off to seasonal normals with still some lower rain chances continuing into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1038 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions expected at all terminals during this cycle as high pressure continues to dominate the region. Winds will be light (10 kts or less) with a north to northeast fetch. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 57 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 56 80 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 50 72 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 56 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 53 74 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 50 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 54 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 55 79 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 57 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Unger