553
FXUS64 KOUN 221841
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Rainfall is likely late Sunday into Monday along with a risk of
  locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

- Turning cooler towards middle of next week with low
  temperatures near the freezing mark.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Stratus continues to persist across central/east central Oklahoma
this afternoon, which has kept temperatures much lower than the
surrounding locations (in the upper 40s to low 50s deg F). The
stratus will be slow to erode this afternoon. Given the time of
year (i.e., low sun angle and shorter days), stratus usually has
an appreciable impact on temperatures (especially with minimal
temperature advection). As a result, we expect temperatures in
central/east central Oklahoma to remain in the 50s deg F.
Elsewhere, temperatures will be in the 60s deg F.

By tonight, light and winds are forecast with a saturated
boundary layer, which should result in some patchy fog. It`ll be
another cool night with low temperatures generally ranging from
the mid 30s to mid 40s deg F.

Mahale

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A closed-low across Baja California will open up and lift into
the Plains late Sunday into Monday. Overall, the trend has been
toward a slower progression of the system with most locations
likely remaining dry during most of the day Sunday.

Isentropic ascent/warm air advection in the warm conveyer belt
ahead of the aforementioned low should result in widespread
showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday with rain
moving into western Oklahoma and north Texas by late afternoon.
Rain chances will end from west to east during the day Monday as
the system departs.

The risk for severe weather is limited/near zero across much of
the area with minimal instability. Elevated instability of 300 to
800 J/kg across western north Texas may result in some stronger to
low-end severe storms with the primary hazard being hail.

Generally 0.10 to 0.50" of rainfall is likely along and northwest
of I-44 with 0.50 to 2" southeast of I-44 (with locally higher
amounts possible). Locally higher amounts could result in some
flooding risk--primarily across southeast Oklahoma. The greatest
uncertainty is the potential for a dry slot, which could quickly
cutoff rainfall northwest of I-44. Probabilistic guidance
indicates the most reasonable driest scenario (e.g., if the dry
slot is significant with minimal rainfall) will be a trace to a
0.10" northwest of I-44 and 0.10 to 1" southeast of I-44.
Therefore, even with a strong dry slot, appreciable rainfall is
still likely across the south.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Rain chances end early in the day Monday across the west, but could
linger through much of the day across the southeast. As storm system
exits to the east, a stronger cold front will push south through the
area Tuesday. This will bring some actual colder than normal
temperatures to Oklahoma and north Texas for the middle of the week.
Another hard freeze will likely occur Wednesday morning across
northwest Oklahoma. Mainly low/mid 50s expected Wednesday for highs
with some rebound in temps expected for Thanksgiving day with highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Cool surface high shifts east by Friday
with a return of south winds, which could become quite breezy, and a
few more degrees of warming as we end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Stratus will continue to move across parts of the area this
afternoon. These MVFR clouds are expected to dissipate/move out of
the area this afternoon/evening. Patchy BR will be possible across
parts of the area overnight into Sunday morning. Currently have
visibility dropping to 1-2 miles but there area some indications
that visibility could drop below a mile in some areas. However,
there is enough uncertainty that do not have mentioned in TAFs at
this time. Winds will become light and variable as sfc high
remains over the region tonight. Winds will still remain fairly
light Sunday morning but gradually shift towards the S and SE as
the sfc high moves off to the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  41  64  52  65 /   0  10  80  40
Hobart OK         39  65  50  69 /   0  70  60  10
Wichita Falls TX  42  67  54  71 /   0  50  90  40
Gage OK           37  63  44  65 /   0  70  20   0
Ponca City OK     39  64  50  64 /   0   0  70  40
Durant OK         44  68  54  67 /   0  10  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25