


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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026 FXUS64 KOUN 161745 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into Saturday. A few strong to severe storms are possible. - Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected late Saturday into early next week. - Elevated fire weather conditions possible Saturday and Monday && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A PV anomaly, located across southern Texas, will lift northward into the Arklatex by early Friday morning. This will result in an increase in mid and high clouds, especially the eastern half of Oklahoma. The increase in cloud cover may shave a few degrees off afternoon highs, but most areas will still warm well in the 80s. Late this evening and overnight, a strong low-level jet will develop across the Panhandles and will gradually veer and weaken as sunrise approaches Friday. There still appears to be a slight chance of isolated showers across mainly west central and northwestern Oklahoma, mainly after midnight. Surface winds will be a little stronger tonight, so overnight lows will be several degrees warmer compared to lows this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Isolated showers will remain possible across mainly northern Oklahoma through mid to late morning Friday. This will mainly be associated with scattered to broken mid-level clouds. Early Friday morning will feature a mid and upper low lifting into southern parts of Canada, with a positively-tilted trough extending southwest into the central Rockies/southwestern U.S. As rather strong mid and upper flow approaches the Pacific Northwest, this trough will shift eastward and approach western Oklahoma by early Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will approach and move into parts of northwestern Oklahoma late Friday afternoon and evening. As lift increases ahead of the approaches trough, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with better chances across western and northern Oklahoma overnight. Modest elevated instability around 750-1500 J/kg and increasing cloud-layer shear may result in a few strong to severe storms overnight, with hail the main concern. Scattered showers and a few storms may continue to develop and move across Oklahoma after sunrise Saturday. As the trough shifts eastward, most of the precipitation should be confined to eastern parts of the state. With the low-level flow veered, much drier air will advect into the western third/half of Oklahoma during the morning and afternoon. By early to mid afternoon, a stronger cold front will enter northern Oklahoma and will move quickly to the south. Moisture pooling near the front, could result in isolated showers/storms with a better chance across southeastern Oklahoma, where upper 60 dewpoints may remain. This area will likely have the best chance of seeing a few strong to severe storms mainly during the late afternoon early/mid evening. Much drier air will overspread all of Oklahoma and northern Texas by late evening. This will bring more fall-like temperatures for early Sunday morning and day. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Much cooler temperatures, albeit still above average, are expected Sunday behind the frontal passage. Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind gusts expected by the afternoon. Beyond Monday, a pattern shift will support temperatures still above average, but below 80 across much of the area. As of right now, no major precipitation chances are expected with this upcoming pattern. Bunker && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period with a southeast or south wind and scattered to broken cirrus streaming in from the south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 63 86 67 85 / 0 0 30 20 Hobart OK 62 87 63 87 / 0 10 30 10 Wichita Falls TX 63 89 67 90 / 0 0 10 20 Gage OK 60 84 55 79 / 20 10 30 10 Ponca City OK 63 87 63 83 / 0 10 70 30 Durant OK 64 87 69 88 / 10 0 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...06 SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...08