


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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634 FXUS65 KPUB 182302 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 502 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued hot with daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for the next several days, with most impacting the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Currently...upper level ridging has built across Colorado, with warm temperatures spreading across the Plains. Temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 90s across the Plains, and upper 70s over the San Luis Valley. Energy is currently lifting northeast from southwest Colorado into north central Colorado, helping to spark showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the higher terrain. Rest of today and tonight...the upper wave will continue lift northeast along the Continental Divide, into northeastern Colorado by late tonight. Across the Plains, drier air has spread across the I-25 corridor, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This has led to SBCAPE values in the 500-1000 j/kg range. Shear is rather weak at less than 20 kts. Thunderstorms have been pulsey, quickly up and down. A few of the stronger cells could produce hail to half an inch in diameter, and given the higher dewpoint depressions, gusty outflow winds near 50 mph will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall may also accompany stronger cells. Not anticipating much activity spreading east of the I-25 corridor. Most high-res model guidance has convection slowly progressing northeast off the mountains, and weakening this evening as they track east. Once convection dissipates, dry conditions are forecast to prevail into Saturday morning. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 50s for the San Luis Valley, and upper 50s to lower 60s across the Plains. Saturday...the upper ridge will slowly progress eastward through the afternoon. Meanwhile, energy across New Mexico will get caught in the southwesterly flow aloft and move northeast into southern Colorado by the afternoon. At the surface, a weak boundary will push south across the Plains during the morning hours. This will help bring slightly more moist air to the area. This will help with destabilization during the afternoon, with SBCAPE values near 1000 j/kg. As the energy moves overhead, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the higher terrain, then spread northeast into the Plains by the afternoon. Current model projections have the main focus over the San Juan Range, east into the southern Sangre de Cristo Range and Raton Mesa. But convective activity will also develop northward along the I-25 corridor into the Palmer Divide. The main concerns with thunderstorms will be lightning, locally heavy rainfall and gusty outflow wind shear 50 mph. Stronger storms could produce small hail. Temperatures will remain hot across the Plains with 90s for highs, while the San Luis Valley rises to near 80. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 301 AM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Not much change in the long range pattern as compared to days past. weak monsoonal flow is expected to continue as portrayed by the 0-7 day qpf charts showing precip from old Mexico across NM and then into Colorado. Overall qpf values relatively low through this period, but there is chance of some storms nearly every day, with mainly scattered activity over the higher terrain. There will also be more isolated activity over the plains as there is some westerly component to the flow and this will allow the activity over the mtns to push out onto the plains. The overall best chance of precip per latest guidance in the mtns will be Sunday and later in the week next week. Temps over the plains will range to around the L90s over the ridges (Palmer Divide and Raton) to 95-100F from Canon City to the KS border, mid 80s in the valley and 60s and 70s mtns. /Hodanish && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 502 PM MDT Fri Jul 18 2025 For KCOS and KPUB..Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger in the vicinity of both stations for the next couple of hours, giving way to clearing and VFR conditions for the rest of tonight and tomorrow morning. Another round of showers and storms will be possible (30% chance) for Saturday afternoon, mainly after 20Z. For KALS..Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity of KALS for the next couple of hours, with VFR conditions likely through the rest of tonight and into tomorrow morning. Another round of showers and storms will be possible (30% chance) for Saturday afternoon, mainly after 20Z. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...EHR