423
FXUS63 KEAX 221000
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Misty and foggy conditions dissipate early this morning.

- Sunshine returns this afternoon with above normal
  temperatures this weekend.

- Additional rainfall is expected Monday. Impacts are expected
  to be similar to what we saw the past couple days.

- The Thanksgiving holiday looks to be relatively chilly, but
  otherwise limited weather concerns. There is the potential for
  impactful storms the weekend after, but confidence is too low
  at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The low pressure system which brought a gray and rainy Friday across
the area has accelerated eastward. Rain has dissipated to mist and
fog through the overnight. A push of cooler, drier air combined with
a 500mb ridge building across the region looks to break fog and
clouds apart before sunrise. This reintroduces sunshine throughout
the area. Normally a push of cooler air would lower expected high
temperatures; however, a pocket of warmer air across eastern MT and
WY transits behind the cooler air which when combined with clearing
skies and solar heating keeps highs in the upper 50s to low 60s
through the weekend.

A strong low off the SW California coast become our next weather
feature for the beginning of Thanksgiving week. This system is
expected to move on shore through the day Saturday before taking a
sharp northeast track through the Rockies. A lee trough develops
across western KS which accelerates flow of warm southerly air and
Gulf moisture. Broad CVA, embedded shortwaves, and isentropic ascent
across the warm sector develop showers from central TX into SE NE.
As the lee cyclone deepens, rain moves into our area late Sunday
into early Monday morning. It is expected for conditions to be
somewhat similar yesterday`s rain where most will experience showers
with some embedded heavy downpours. More convective activity looks
to be concentrated toward the I-44 corridor and points SW. However,
it would not be entirely surprising for an isolated rumble of
thunder across mainly south of I-70 during the day as well as far NW
MO later in the evening. Our positioning to the direct east of the
low pressure center combined with a SW to NE orientation of the
500mb jet max as well as the lack of general instability or frontal
system just do not present the most favorable convective
environment. This environment becomes slightly more favorable for
far NE MO as the low quickly lunges into souther IA Monday night.
Some downpours are possible as ample shear and PWATs in excess of 1
inch could entice some efficient heavy rain fall. This could make
another significant contribution toward the seasonal precipitation
deficit which still sits at 3" at KMCI since Sept 1 even though 1.4
inches of rain fell Friday.

A push of cold, dry Canadian air moves into the region in the wake
of Monday`s low pressure passage. This cooler air mass slowly
filters its way in Tuesday before strong northwest 500mb flow
accelerates the push of cold air which sticks through the
Thanksgiving holiday. High temperatures Wednesday sink from the 50s
and 60s to the 40s with overnight lows below freezing. The good news
is this steady northwesterly flow will make any Thanksgiving travel
into the region rather worry free from a weather perspective. The
biggest potential concern I see at this point is the chance for
gusty winds adding a further chill to the air this holiday. Extended
guidance does indicate a potential for a potentially impactful storm
system to develop which may affect return travel, but uncertainty
remains very high, and we will need to see multiple forecast
iterations before placing more confidence in potential storms late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low ceilings are moving finally starting to push south and
within an hour or two of forecast issuance, all sites are very
likely (>95%) to be VFR with mid and high level clouds. VFR
conditions then very likely (>95%) prevail through the remainder
of the forecast. Winds will be light through the forecast but
vary from the north initially, becoming westerly or
southwesterly tomorrow late morning to afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...CDB