402
FXUS63 KEAX 131124
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
524 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through
  the weekend. Record high temperatures are possible Friday and
  Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees for
  portions of the area.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Saturday
  afternoon ahead of an approaching dry cold front.

- Cooler Sunday, with precipitation chances (30-50%) returning
  Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

This morning, a surface ridge that resides over the area will shift
eastward allowing modest WAA to develop over the area. This coupled
with a upper level ridge building into the eastern Rockies providing
for height rises locally will allow highs to rise into the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Tonight a weak surface trough will approach the area
however, it is not expected to reach the CWA however, low level
moisture pooling out ahead of the boundary may lead to patchy fog
development for areas west of I-35 late tonight into tomorrow
morning. Friday, the upper level ridge axis over the eastern Rockies
moves into the Plains states further providing height rises over the
area. This couple with continued modest WAA will drive highs into
the low to mid 70s. Saturday, a upper level trough will move from
the dig from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This
feature will act to flatten the upper level ridge over the area and
will force a dry cold front through the CWA. Highs over the northern
CWA where the front will pass earlier in the day will reach the
upper 60s whereas the southern CWA will rise into the mid 70s. Cold
air will advect into the area behind the front Saturday night
dropping lows into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Surface high pressure
then builds into the area on Sunday providing for weak mixing
cooling high temperatures into the mid 50s to mid 60s which is still
5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid-November.

Sunday, a upper level trough in the from of a closed low will move
onshore along the California coast. This feature will become an open
wave on Sunday and move quickly to the northern/central Plains by
Monday. This will allow showers to develop over the area (30-50% with
the best chances across the northern CWA. This shortwave will move
through the CWA Monday night continuing shower chances. Highs Monday
will again range from the mid 50s (north) to the mid 60s (south).
Conditions dry out for Tuesday as a surface ridge of high pressure
skirts just north of the area with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
keep highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday another upper level
trough will move through Rockies...a lead shortwave out ahead of
this system will allow another round of showers to develop over the
area with highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn high clouds
expected thru the pd. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be lgt out
of the SE/SSE btn 5-10kts but will veer to the south and incr to
around 10kts aft 16Z-17Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73