462
FXUS65 KGJT 011105
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
505 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions persist into next week
  with a slight chance for precipitation returning Thursday,
  mainly on the mountains north of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The ridge that has parked over the West Coast for the last week is
now on the move, having pushed into the Great Basin extending to the
northeast into Manitoba as the shortwave descends around the Gulf of
Alaska low into the Pacific Northwest to track east along the
Canadian Border. This keeps eastern Utah and Western Colorado under
a cooler northerly flow aloft to keep temperatures today nearly the
same as yesterday. Though the ridge moving in would normally suggest
warmer temps, the high clouds spilling over the ridge today will
limit diurnal heating. By Sunday, the ridge base will be centered on
the Rockies to the south, but the shortwave systems passing to the
north flatten the ridge putting a dry zonal flow aloft over the
region. This will bring mostly clear skies tomorrow with
temperatures warming three to five degrees in the valleys and five
to ten degrees in the mountains. Take time to enjoy the fair
weather, mild temperatures and light breezes this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 317 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The amplified ridge-trough pattern currently residing over the CONUS
will be replaced by a flatter more progressive pattern as we move
into the new week. By the end of the week the pattern looks to be
more of a broad trough across NOAM. A series of waves will be moving
through the flow and eventually dip far enough to bring us slightly
better precipitation chances by early Thursday. This however has
trended weaker and drier compared to 24 hours ago. A few ensemble
plumes were putting an average of up to 5 inches of snow over the
Park Range yesterday and that has been cut in half in current runs.
As we move toward the weekend model consensus breaks down as
anticipated. However the pattern promises at least a closer storm
track with passing waves every day or two. Now getting the Pacific
moisture to survive across the Intermountain West to the Rockies is
another matter. In the meantime before the mid-week changes very
warm and dry conditions will continue with passing high cloudiness
about the only moisture we will see move through.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail over the next 24
hours. Periods of passing high clouds through the early
afternoon hours will then give way to mostly clear skies.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...TGJT