Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
000 FXUS65 KGJT 202111 AFDGJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 211 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2009 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD CWA THIS AFTN AS MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FRONTAL SYSTEM COMING ASHORE OVER PAC NW THIS AFTN...AND ASSOCD SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR OUR OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TOMORROW...SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP SOME SO CAN EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER...OPEN TERRAIN. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR DISTURBANCE... ESPECIALLY JET STREAM...WILL MOVE FURTHER N SATURDAY LEAVING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR UT/CO TO CONTEND WITH. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OVER SRN AREAS. WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...LOWERED POP/QPF QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY THRU ENTIRE SHORT TERM WHILE KEEPING IN SCHC PRECIP SAT NIGHT FOR NERN UT/NWRN CO...WITH SCHC FOR CEN/NRN MTNS. THE OCCNL STRAY SHOWER OR FLURRY STILL POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WARRANTING SLIGHT MENTION. FOR LATE SUN MORNING ONWARDS...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP AS WEAK FLAT RIDGE MOVES OVER AREA. TEMPS THRU SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN QUITE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME TEMPS MIGHT BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS CLOUDS INHIBIT MUCH OF A WARM UP...THOUGH NIGHTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ALSO BECAUSE OF INCD CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CROSSES NE UT AND NW CO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW SUNDAY EVE AND PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MON MORNING. FRONTAL LIFT AND DYNAMICS FOLLOWED BY NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST AREAS OF SNOW FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. LIMITING FACTOR IS AGAIN MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE UT AND SW CO WHERE THE LEAST CHANCE EXISTS...SO HESITANT TO GET TOO BULLISH WITH POPS AT THIS TIME. RAPID WARMING ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD CAUSE PRECIP TO END QUICKLY SAVE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE DIVIDE. NW FLOW THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR MIDWEEK. DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW PERIODICALLY BRUSH THE AREA BUT WITH MOISTURE LACKING...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TUE-FRI. COOLER TEMPS TUE ON A WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER NE UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....TGR LONG TERM......JAD AVIATION.......TGJT