Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240451
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING
HOTCHKISS...DELTA...MONTROSE. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AT
MONTROSE ARE ALREADY LOWER THAN 12Z MET GUIDANCE AT 6 PM...AND THE
MET LOW FORECAST TEMPERATURE THERE TONIGHT IS 26F. VALLEY
INVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP SO
WIND MACHINES SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE FOR GROWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE WHICH OCCURS AT 6:23 THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE GRAND VALLEY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING FOR THE MORNING LOW
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE FRUITA TO MACK
PORTION OF THE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH RAPID CLEARING TO FOLLOW AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CO MTNS SHOULD
SHOULD ALSO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE IN THE FRUIT
GROWING AREAS OF THE GRAND VALLEY...THE NORTH FORK VALLEY AND
DELTA/MONTROSE AREAS AS SKIES CLEAR AND VALLEY INVERSIONS DEVELOP.
LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 30-35F AND THEN
ONLY FOR A FEW HRS NEAR SUNRISE ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS AROUND
MONTROSE...FRUITA AND PERHAPS PAONIA MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S. BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY HARD
FREEZE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ZONES 6 AND 11 TONIGHT
THOUGH ORCHARDISTS SHOULD HAVE TEMPERATURE MONITORING EQUIPMENT
OPERATIVE. BELIEVE DRAINAGE/CANYON WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROTECT THE PALISADE AREA ESPECIALLY IF SOME HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
FILTERING IN BY SUNRISE PER THE GFS MODEL.

DRY...WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT
NEAR THE WY BORDER...THURSDAY SHOULD BE LESS WINDY THAT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND
TRANSPORTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO SKYROCKET
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

A TWO-PART LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WILL REACH EASTERN UTAH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION EAST INTO WESTERN
COLORADO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ERRATIC WINDS...RAIN IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SNOW ACCUMULATION AT ABOUT 9000 FEET AND HIGHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS FRONTOGENESIS PLOT SHOWS DECENT ENERGY ACROSS THE
UTAH/COLORADO BORDER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER PULSE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY AND
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS SECOND WEATHER DISTURBANCE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 5500 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THESE MAIN PRECIPITATION
PASSAGES IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE RECENTLY
BEEN FLUCTUATING FROM ACTUAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...BUT
DEFINITELY LOOKING LIKE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WET
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY ON THAT SATURDAY
MORNING AND SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING SOLUTION. THE OTHER BIG
CHALLENGE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL.

INCONSISTENCY ON WHEN THIS STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHCENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION BUT CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY JUST ALONG THE NORTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OUT...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHETHER THE REGION WILL STAY IN
ACTIVE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY OR IF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER KASE AND KEGE THIS
EVENING BUT SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST.
ANY CIGS THAT REMAIN WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH TOMORROW THEN THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WIND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO. A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR CO FIRE ZONE 290...BUT KEPT OUT CO ZONE 292 FOR NOW AS
CRITICAL LEVEL COVERAGE IS NOT GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE ZONE
AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WATCH AS
POTENTIAL WIND EVENT BECOMES CLOSER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COZ205.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ011.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...TGR
FIRE WEATHER...JAM



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