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000
FXUS65 KGJT 190355
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
955 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AFTERNOON BREEZES WERE STEADY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH AT MANY DESERT VALLEY SITES. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED TO NIGHT WITH ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. MOST NOTABLY IN THE GRAND VALLEY WHERE SOUTHEAST GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH MAY BECOME COMMON. UPDATED OVERNIGHT WIND GRIDS
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE COLORADO SPINE AND CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS DECREASING AT MIDAFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE AXIS PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA AND DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE DIVIDE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNSET.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
WITH STRONG VORT-LOBE ROTATING THROUGH ITS BASE. THIS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT RESULTING IN BREEZY...DRY...AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY DRY AS
EVIDENCED BY SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINT VALUES UPSTREAM SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
WITHOUT VIRGA OR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BOLSTER WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED.

WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
INTERRUPT NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH AN
INFLUX OF COOLER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES...SHOULD YIELD COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OREGON SHIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THURSDAY A WEAK COOL FRONT
REMAINS DRAPED OVER NE UTAH INTO FAR NW COLORADO THAT WILL BRING
THE NORTH`S DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT WINDS REMAIN QUITE GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT INTO THE WEEKEND. ALL THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS VERY DRY.

MONDAY THE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH AMPLIFIES NORTH AND WEST FROM TEXAS AND OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. GRADIENT WINDS RELAX AS TEMPERATURES SOAR AND
SHOWERS REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SKC THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT SOME MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND G30KTS FROM 18Z TO
01Z WILL BE COMMON AT DESERT AIRPORTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK...

THE UPPER RIDGE WAS SHIFTING ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. A
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS INTO OREGON ON WEDNESDAY THEN
SPINS SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
CREATING POOR RH RECOVERY. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN
DISTRICTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...HUMIDITY VERY DRY...AND FUELS ARE CRITICAL FOR MOST
DISTRICTS. WARM AND DRY CONTINUES NEXT WEEK BUT WITH LESS WIND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ200-202-203-
     290>292.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
     COZ207-293.

UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ482>484-486-487.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JOE