Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 301651
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

SUNDAY EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS INDICATED A FAIRLY FLAT RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH DRY AIR ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO. THE 00Z-
08Z SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA
PUSHING MOISTURE INTO AZ/NM...WHILE A NERN PACIFIC TROUGH DIRECTED
MOISTURE INTO SWRN CANADA AND THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES RIDGE. A
SMALLER UPPER LOW WAS MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO SRN WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INTO SE UT AND SW CO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER THE SIERRA-NEVADA MTNS AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW
LAST EVENING.

MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY AND
TUESDAY. THE BAJA LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
STAY WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW THE SRN NV LOW MOVING TO NE
AZ BY THIS EVENING...LOOKING AT THE 300 MB VORTICITY FIELD. THIS
DISTURBANCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

ISOLATED MTN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM APPROACHES. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
WIND GUSTS TUE AFTERNOON AS 700 MB FLOW INCREASES IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MIDRANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THOUGH THE GFS STILL CARRIES
MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS SHORTWAVE FEATURES THAN DOES THE ECMWF.
TIMING WITH ALL THE MODELS IS MORE CONSISTENT AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA TUE. THE TWO THINGS TO
HIGHLIGHT FOR THIS WEEK ARE THE WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FROM THE PACNW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE
FASTEST EASTERLY PUSH OF THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE LOW CENTER MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE
SURFACE FRONT TRAILS BEHIND AND IS EXPECTED TO DRAG THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. A SECOND TROUGH AND MORE DISTINCT
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BAND IS PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MUCH COLDER LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI
AND SAT MORNINGS.

THE ECMWF SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE RECOVERING OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SAT AND SUN...WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT THE RIDGE BRIEFLY THAN SENDS
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z TODAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY NEAR VIRGA. THE
LIMITED COVERAGE IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE KTEX TAF
AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY GUSTY SFC
WINDS AFTER 20Z AND DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGJT


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