Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 242320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
620 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Weak wave swinging by to the east of the area with just a few
showers earlier over southwest MN. Diurnally driven cumulus will
diminish this evening and lead to mostly clear skies overnight.
Some of the cloud cover over southwest MN may linger through the
night as the cold core aloft wraps around. High pressure builds
into central SD late tonight which will lead towards another
morning of very cool readings. Looing at 40s for most locations on
Sunday morning.

Sunday temperatures will be similar to today as will the sky
cover, but finally the wind will be down a bit. Still looking at
10 to 20 mph but we should be rid of the 35 to 40 mph gusts.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Monday shaping up to be a pleasant day, just a bit on the cool side.
Surface high pressure will drift southeast across the area bringing
lighter winds and abundant sunshine. With the strong June sun
temperatures in the lower to middle 70s will feel nice and warm.

Monday night into Tuesday morning will see southerly winds return at
the surface, thus bringing warmer readings to the area. Parts of
northwest IA could see some cool morning lows as the high pressure
exits east, but will quickly warm up as the southerly flow takes
over. Lows should range from 45 to 50 in northwest IA to 55 to 60 in
south central SD. Some elevated instability does work north into
central SD, but at this time it appears that any showers or
thunderstorms that might develop would be west of the Missouri River.

The instability to the west will build across the area on Tuesday
and should bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. An
upper level jet maxima will move into SD and Nebraska and should
allow storms to develop in the evening along and west of the James
River. With the potential for strong winds in the low levels and
weaker winds in the upper levels storm motion of the stronger storms
may be to the south or southeast. The 700mb-300mb winds only
averaging about 30 knots at this time. Enough instability and 0-3km
shear to support a threat for isolated severe storms and if that mid
to upper level jet max can work into the area a little sooner and
ramp up the 500mb to 300mb winds a bit there would likely be a
threat for more organized severe weather, but not banking on that
happening just yet.

After the wave passes on Wednesday the area remains in a stronger
corridor of jet winds aloft as the models suggest troughing across
southern Canada. This will keep a small threat for showers and
thunderstorms to end the week with temperatures at or below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.




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