Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 160419

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1019 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Little in the way of cloud cover expected through Thursday, with
relatively light southerly flow shifting around to the west later
tonight as a warm front moves east across the forecast area. The
light winds and clear skies should allow for decent radiational
cooling tonight, with lows a few degrees below freezing for most of
the area.

With little if any snow cover left around the area, and favorable
westerly wind direction for low level mixing, will continue to side
with warmer model guidance for highs Friday. This keeps us close to
previous forecast, with highs from the lower-mid 50s in southwest
Minnesota to lower-mid 60s through the Missouri River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

While the air mass will be very mild, winds should become fairly
light on Thursday night and will allow temperatures to drop back
into the upper 20s to lower 30s. With a west and southwest
gradient in place on Friday and an incoming weak boundary very
mild temperatures are expected, especially in northwest Iowa and
far southeast SD.

Cooler air will filter in behind this front for Saturday, but high
temperatures will still climb into the 50s as the air mass is still
above normal for this time of year and there is not anymore snow

As the relatively cool high pressure moves east Saturday night, a
strong southerly gradient will be in place from late Saturday night
into Monday morning. This will allow for another very mild day on
Sunday, albeit breezy. Highs will likely again be back into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. A strong southerly wind is usually not the
best for mixing but again, with no snow on the ground we should be
able to take advantage of most of this warmer air mass.

With the strong southerly flow in place Sunday night into Monday
morning record warm lows will be likely with a threat to break the
monthly record for warmest low temperature. For Sioux Falls the
record warm low for monday is 34, while the monthly warmest low is
44. In the end, it looks like we should see lows in the mid to
upper 40s on Monday morning, but with a cool front coming through
mid day will probably see temperatures fall back into the 30s
before midnight. Regardless, very mild.

Tuesday into Wednesday shows signs of disagreement but the models
continue to hint at a strong system somewhere in the Northern and
Central Plains, especially towards Thursday and Friday. For now
will just keep temperatures well above normal and dry, waiting to
see what kind of a consensus the models come to.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1018 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. KSUX will see
a brief period of low level wind shear through 09Z Thursday with
light surface winds under a brisk southwesterly low level jet.




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