Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 060858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
258 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Latest water vapor loop indicating a wave dropping south into the
Dakotas early this morning. Some patchy light snow was occurring
along and ahead of this wave with strong northwest winds developing.
This system does not have a lot to work with but some weak frontal
forcing will drop south through the day as a reinforcing shot of
cold air moves in. Will add some lower chances for light snow across
parts of southwest MN and scattered flurries across much of the
remainder of the area. It seems like the snow has iced over and
solidified a bit so even with gusty winds today do not anticipate
any blowing snow problems. With the reinforcing shot of cold air
high temperatures will be on the cold side and mainly in the 20s
with a few lower 30s along the Missouri River. Even during the
afternoon wind chill values will likely be in the single digits.

Clouds will decrease overnight but with some wind expected
temperatures should not completely radiate overnight. There could be
a few flurries around during the evening but should not amount to
much. Lows will be between about 5 and 15 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Cold air will remain locked in place Thursday as a jet max dives
south into the western High Plains. This will set up broad warm
advection aloft and by Thursday night into Friday morning some
patchy light snow will be possible. Amounts should again be
limited so not too worried about any higher amounts but would not
be surprised to see late Thursday night into Friday evening come
in with a better chance for light snow in future runs of the
models. Highs on Thursday will be in the 20s but with cloud cover
on the increase lows Thursday night should be from about 15 to 25
degrees. As the warmer air aloft moves in some of this will help
warm temperatures at the surface. Expecting highs to be close to
normal on Friday from the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Friday night into Saturday will see a reinforcing shot of colder
air, but the effect on highs will not be to high with temperatures
again around normal.

The deep trough around the Great Lakes will shift east on Sunday and
should allow for some warmer temperatures. Some of this heating will
go into melting the bit of snow that exists, but still thinking a
warmer day on Sunday. High temperatures should range from the upper
30s in southwest MN to near 50 in south central SD.

An unsettled pattern expected early next week as cold air settles in
on Monday but the jet energy not overly strong so this cold shot may
be shorter lived. Highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s both days with
lows in the teens to lower 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1031 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Areas of MVFR ceilings and light snow will linger tonight, with
the better chances at KHON. KFSD and KSUX will be on the edge of
the snow band, so confidence is less at those locations.
Northwesterly winds will pick up once again on Wednesday, gusting
to around 25 kts through the afternoon.




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