Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 152324
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
524 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SYSTEM EVOLVING ABOUT AS ANTICIPATED. THE TROWAL THAT WAS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IS COLLAPSING SO WE ARE LOSING OUR SOURCE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT. THIS IS ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MAINLY
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
STILL STUCK IN THE LITTLE BIT OF THE TROWAL THAT REMAINS SO STILL
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHWEST IOWA WORKED
INTO THE DRY SLOT AND HAS SIMPLY HAD SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROWAL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WHICH SHOULD BRING A BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF SLEET AND SNOW TO
ALL SNOW FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE NOT SNOWING AS OF 230 PM. AS THE
LIFT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL SHUT THE SNOW DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AFTER THE ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS END WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT THE SNOW WILL BE TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND SO MORE THAN LIKELY
SOMEWHERE NEAR AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR WILL NEED A
WIND ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

ON TUESDAY...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN EAST OF I29 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH IN THE
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. NAM...AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS...ARE SHOWING
STRATUS REMAINING OVER MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS
WEST OF I29 DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO NOT EXPECTING OVERCAST SKIES
ALL DAY BUT SUN WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AT BEST EAST OF
I29...WITH PERHAPS 3 OR 4 HOURS WEST OF I29. WITH SNOW COVER IN MOST
AREAS AND WEAKENING WINDS...LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN
PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA AND LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DRY AND QUIET IN THE LONG TERM AS COLD AIR KEEPS TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT UP TO THE WEEKEND.

TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY.
GFS/NAM KEEP PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEST COAST SYSTEM RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z. IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED IN HURON WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR.

SIOUX FALLS WILL HAVE CONTINUED LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 1 MILE.

AT SIOUX CITY...VERY LIGHT RAIN/FOG WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
HOUR...HOWEVER THE TAIL END OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CITY LATER
THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE DAYBREAK HOURS OF TUESDAY WILL BE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...SUSTAINED 25 GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS.
THESE WINDS MAY LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW REDUCTIONS ESPECIALLY AT FSD.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED BLSN IN THE CURRENT TAF FOR THE PERIODS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT THE ADDITION AND SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION MAY
BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR WEAK AS WE
MOVE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.



&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ061-
     062-066-067-069.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-055-
     056.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-
     039-052>054-057>060-064-065-068.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-063.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-
     089-098.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
     080-097.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SCHUMACHER/08
LONG TERM...SALLY
AVIATION...DUX


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