Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 031109
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
509 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

WINDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DIE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL ALLOW
THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  WITH
THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH GOOD COORDINATION FROM SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH MID-DAY.

AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WORKS EAST AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEGIN TO RECOVER. FURTHER TO THE EAST...WILL BE
A STRUGGLE TO SEE MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY AS DEEP SNOW COVER AND
COOLER TEMPS LIMIT WARMING.

CLOUDS SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  WAS CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER DID NOT MENTION. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RADIATING SUBSTANTIALLY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MID-LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MODESTLY ACTIVE
WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A
PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FIRST SUCH WAVE IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND LARGELY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH COULD
GRAZE OUR FAR NORTHEAST WITH LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE WAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. A SECOND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE
IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WITH THAT THE MODELS INDICATE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT. WHILE ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH RECENT
SNOWFALL WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT IN OUR SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY WAVE SHOULD TEMPER THE
RADIATIVE COOLING OVER THE FRESH SNOW.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS COMING WEEKEND...WITH
THE GFS/ECMWF STRONGER AND A LITTLE MORE DIGGY THAN THE CANADIAN.
TIMING STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LEAD
WAVE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A TRAILING
WAVE DIGGING INTO THE TROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT IF CURRENT GFS/ECMWF TIMING HOLDS IN LATER RUNS...COULD
SEE SOME POPS INTRODUCED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CANNOT RULE
OUT A LITTLE RAIN LIGHT WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM...AS SOME MODELS
POINTING TO SURFACE TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...WARM LAYER APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH 925MB TEMPS
FORECAST TO COOL BELOW ZERO BY MIDDAY...SO WILL STICK WITH JUST SNOW
FOR NOW. WINDS BECOME MORE BURLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE AS
WELL...WITH NORTHWEST 925MB WINDS OF AT LEAST 35-40KT DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY LATE WEEKEND SNOWFALL
TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH BLOWING SNOW AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR THAT IN THOSE AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED HEAVIER SNOWFALL WITH THIS MOST RECENT SYSTEM. COLDER BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AT KSUX WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR THIS MORNING AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP
AFTER 03Z THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THESE WOULD BE EAST OF KFSD..

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ070-071.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ080-081-089-
     090.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...


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