Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 311102
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
602 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND BY
DAYBREAK...WE WILL HAVE HAD THE COLDEST READINGS SINCE MID-APRIL.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES TODAY...GIVEN THE COLD START AND LIGHT
WINDS...WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS LOW 40S.  THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST HALLOWEEN SINCE 2006.

THE SHARP MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  INCREASING
SOUTHEAST WINDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL TEMPER THE RAPID FALL IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH READINGS HOLDING STEADY OR
RISING FURTHER WEST AS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DESPITE THE COOL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...AM EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND QUITE NICELY THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.  ON
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON SATURDAY AS 30-40 KNOTS
OF FLOW CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT 925 HPA.  AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER GROWS...EXPECT THIS MOMENTUM TO BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WITH NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION...WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE...WILL SEE
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WITH RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.  STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE A REFLECTION IN
TEMPERATURE FIELD ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DOWNSTREAM
OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY...AND WITH 925 HPA TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND
WINDS TAKING ON MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLAVOR...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY AND WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY BRANCH OF THE JET KEEPS MUCH OF
THE FORCING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND AREAS EAST
ON MONDAY...SO CUT BACK ON WESTWARD EXTENT ON POPS AND CONFINED
CHANCE POPS TO MAINLY AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 60.

RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED....BUT THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE MEN GUIDANCE THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN CONSALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.  AS SUCH...RAISED
HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  ON WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA...BUT THE COLD AIR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK AND LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT.  AS SUCH...THE BOUNDARY MAY
ACTUALLY SERVE TO ENHANCE MIXING...MAKING IT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF LLWS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS LOW-LVL FLOW INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



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