Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 220015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
815 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.UPDATE...No changes to the ongoing forecast as a frontal
boundary moves down the FL peninsula this evening. May see a few
light showers over the water as it moves in later this evening,
but land areas will remain dry and partly cloudy at best.
Otherwise, the front will usher in dewpoints into the upper 50s
and low 60s which will allow low temperatures to drop into the
upper 50s over the far NW interior, low-mid 60s over the remainder
of the interior and Gulf coast, and mid-upper 60s along the east
coast metro towards daybreak Saturday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 738 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

AVIATION...VFR expected through the period. Overnight, wind will
become lighter as the atmosphere decouples with some variability
possible. After sunrise, winds will pick back up out of the north-
northwest to north with some gusts above 15 knots possible. Model
guidance suggests at some low-level moisture being present around
APF overnight but fog is not expected tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016/


This afternoon-Tonight...Fall arrives in South Florida as a cool
front moves through the region this evening/overnight. The boundary
may kick off a few showers over the warmer waters, but expect a dry
forecast for land with only a few clouds accompanying the front.
Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s over the far NW
interior, low-mid 60s over the remainder of the interior and Gulf
coast, and mid-upper 60s along the east coast metro. Most locations
that haven`t already dipped this fall will see their first sub-70
degree temperatures since the spring.

This Weekend...High pressure builds in across the Deep South behind
the front with northwest winds ushering in a dry and cooler air mass
across the region for the weekend.

Mostly sunny skies in place for Saturday, with a little more in the
way of stratocu on Sunday as winds veer more northeasterly. Forecast
looks dry at this time, but won`t discount an occasional light
shower over the Atlantic or Gulf at times.

Main story will be the will be the cooler temperatures, with highs
in the low 80s, or around 5 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Saturday night looks to be the coolest with lows in the mid 50-
upper 50s over the interior and Gulf, and mid 60s along the
immediate east coast.

Next Week... Surface high weakens as it moves east, to be reinforced
by another high sliding out of Great Lakes into the eastern seaboard
by mid week. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through mid
week, with a gradual return of showery weather starting Tuesday as
flow becomes more easterly and low level moisture increases.

Afternoon highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while
morning lows will likely reach the low to mid 60s, coldest over
interior/northern portions of the CWA.

MARINE...Northwesterly winds 10-15kts will continue across all the
local waters through the remainder of the day and into the evening
hours. Front will push through late this evening, with winds picking
up out of the north to 15-20kts first over the Gulf and then
Atlantic. A few showers may accompany the front this

High pressure will build in behind the front for the weekend with
flow veering more northeasterly by Sunday, and a gradual shift to
the east into mid next week. Sustained advisory conditions are not
expected at this time through Tuesday, but do expect less than
favorable winds around 15-20kts through most of the period.

Seas may briefly reach 6-7ft in both Gulf and Atlantic waters
towards daybreak Sat with wind push behind front, before becoming 2-
4ft in the Gulf and 3-5ft in the Atlantic into next week.

BEACH FORECAST...Offshore flow will mitigate the rip current risk
along the Atlantic beaches into Saturday, but expect to see an
increasing threat into next week as winds become more northeasterly
and higher seas work into the region.

West Palm Beach  64  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  67  83  64  81 /  10  10   0  10
Miami            68  83  65  82 /  10  10   0  10
Naples           65  79  56  82 /  10   0   0   0



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