Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 250553
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST POSSIBLE ISOLATED-SCATTERED
TSTORMS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS, SO HAVE BEGUN VCTS IN THE MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING THERE. FOR KAPF, BEGAN VCTS AT NOON. ALTHOUGH THE
TSTORM FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR, TSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE VICINITY AT TIMES. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE LESS
LIKELY SO HAVE ONLY STUCK WITH VCTS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE
SE 5-10 KT EAST COAST AND BECOME SW 5-10 KT AT KAPF IN THE
AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014/

UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
RETURNING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE COASTAL AREAS MOSTLY DRY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE LAKE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THE WEEKEND. A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ON FRIDAY...AND ENHANCE OVERALL
INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL AGAIN INITIATE
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. MUCH DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
BELOW 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...OR AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE EAST COAST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERNMOST FLORIDA AS EARLY AS MONDAY...AND MAY
GRADUALLY INCH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHAT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS A VEERING OF OVERALL
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF...AS WELL AS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING FROM THE INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
POPS AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS BELOW 2 FT. LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
MAY BE CAUSED BY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  91 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  90  80  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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