Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 012056
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
356 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night)
Winds have subsided a bit today and turned more southerly,
allowing for sea breeze intrusions on both coasts. Where low-level
convergence is best, northern/northwestern CWA, scattered showers
have developed. These are likely to continue through the evening.
Isolated showers can`t be ruled out across the remainder of South
Florida. Temperatures today have again been well above normal, and
this trend will continue for one more day, before the weather
pattern changes. A cold front will enter the Florida Panhandle
overnight, then gradually approach South Florida during the day
Thursday. Enhanced moisture ahead of the front will bring eastern
parts of the region the highest rain chances in over a week.
Instability will not be particularly high, and the best dynamics
associated with upper-level shortwave trough responsible for the
cold front will be lifting through New England as the front sags
into the CWA Thursday night. Thus, only risk for thunder is over
the warm Gulf Stream waters. Winds will increase behind the front
will increase Friday, and temperatures will fall to near seasonal
norms for early March. Fairly deep moisture will remain, thus
expect scattered showers moving in off the Atlantic into Friday
LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday night)
This weekend looks to consist of strong northeast winds, cooler
temperatures, and perhaps some isolated showers moving into the
east coast from the Atlantic. Maxima should hold in the 70s, with
minima in the 60s across the east coast urban corridor, but 50s
interior and west.
Winds will gradually turn east and diminish slightly early next
week, with temperatures also exhibiting a slow rise. Models
continue to hint at another cold front possibly approaching the
reach late Tuesday.
Southerly winds at 15 knots or less will prevail through Thursday,
before a cold front moves through Thursday night, increasing winds
to hazardous speeds of 20 to 30 knots out of the north and
northeast. A small craft advisory will likely be needed Friday
through the weekend, and hazardous conditions may continue into
early next week. A few thunderstorms are possible over the Gulf
Stream as the front passes through Thursday night, otherwise,
isolated to scattered showers will prevail.
VFR conditions generally expected to prevail through the early
afternoon hours, but later in the afternoon isolated showers
across the eastern peninsula and possible scattered showers in
western interior could provide very brief MVFR conditions all
terminals with occurrence of showers, but not in TAF`s. Will amend
if/as necessary. Winds after 00z expected to transition to more
southerly flow. Latest guidance trends indicate chance of showers
over night, but not confident enough to include in TAF`s except
for VCSH assigned around 08z Atlantic terminals, similarly not
enough confidence yet for chance of fog/low stratus for terminal
KAPF over night.
The risk for rip currents on Atlantic beaches will rapidly
increase on Friday behind a cold front. Persistent gusty northeast
winds of 20 to 30 mph will likely lead to a high risk of rip
currents on Atlantic beaches this weekend into early next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 70 83 67 78 / 20 50 50 40
Fort Lauderdale 73 83 69 80 / 20 40 40 40
Miami 72 83 69 82 / 20 30 40 40
Naples 68 82 66 80 / 20 20 10 10