Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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859
FXUS62 KMFL 040020
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
820 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

MADE AN UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CHANGES
IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN THIS EVENING. EARLIER THE CONVECTION WAS
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS. SINCE
THAT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THE ACTIVE AREA IS NOW ACROSS EASTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND THE FORECAST
WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.

60




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...

THE ACTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE
BISCAYNE BAY AREA HAS DISSIPATED WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINAL KPBI. TERMINAL KPBI COULD
HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR OR VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS FORECAST THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL WINDS. THE CURRENT TAF`S HAVE A PRO30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME AND VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION WITH THE CURRENT PWAT AROUND 1.6 BEING ABOUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL 200 HPA JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND COULD EXCEED
100 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. ALL
THESE CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPACTS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE...SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA
WITH A SOMWHAT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND DECREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FORECAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WIND AS A THREAT AND HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. THE GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND
CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY BOTH GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WIND GUIDANCE. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WIND FORECAST
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS EITHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OR GULF
WATERS OR BOTH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. BUT FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS TO SEE WHEN OR EVEN IF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS PLUS DEEP MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START EXITING THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COOLER AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  85 /  60  80  70  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  68  87 /  20  80  70  10
MIAMI            74  88  67  85 /  20  80  70  10
NAPLES           77  85  68  83 /  30  80  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....



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