Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 282341 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly around 10 knots through Monday over
the east coast taf sites, while KAPF taf site will be around 5 to
10 knots. The threat of thunderstorms will also continue along the
east coast taf sites through Monday, while KAPF taf site will see
off and on showers tonight into Monday morning before going to
VCTS for Monday afternoon. The ceiling and vis will remain in VFR
conditions outside of any showers or thunderstorms, but could fall
down into MVFR or even IFR conditions with the passage of the
showers or thunderstorms.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Tuesday: newly formed tropical depression (TD) Nine is
moving west across the Florida southern keys, with the National
Hurricane Center forecast keeping this system moving west and into
the eastern Gulf waters sometime Monday.

The influence of TD Nine will keep abundant deep tropical moisture
steaming across South Florida during the next couple of days with
PWATS expected to increase again to over 2 inches. Expect brisk
east to northeast winds to continue, veering to the east southeast
tonight. This will scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the region through Tuesday. Expect the best chances during
the afternoon hours.

Periods of gusty winds are likely, especially along Atlantic coast
locations as gusty showers and thunderstorms move in from the
Atlantic coastal waters. It will be breezy at times even outside
of storms.

Rainfall amounts could reach the 2 to 4 inches range with the
heaviest downpours, possible locally higher amounts at times,
mainly Monday and Tuesday. However, it is important to keep in
mind that these amounts will be highly dependent on the final
track and outcome of TD Nine. Locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern, especially over areas of poor drainage in urbanized
locations.

Brisk east winds, and 1-2ft swell filtering into the Palm Beach
waters, will bring a high risk of rip currents to the Atlantic
beaches over the next few days. Also, rough surf will be a
concern along the beaches.

Wednesday-Sunday: a rather wet and breezy forecast will remain in
place for Wednesday and Thursday, regardless of the outcome of TD
Nine. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, with
higher chances in the afternoon and evening hours, though activity
may occur at anytime.

A more typical summer pattern should begin establishing during
the upcoming weekend, although the eventual solution for TD Nine
will also play a role on the eventual weather scenario. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the
primary threats. In addition, the abundant moisture will keep
conditions muggy and humid.

AVIATION...
A tropical wave passing south of the region will impact the TAF
sites with passing scattered showers and thunderstorms, with more
widespread coverage possible after 00z Monday. Have gone with VCTS
at the east coast TAF sites through the period, with VCSH possible
at KAPF possible by 13z and VCTS by 16z. VFR flying conditions
will generally prevail outside of any MVFR/IFR associated with
passing showers and thunderstorms.

Winds will be easterly around 10 knots overnight, increasing
during the daytime hours around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
possible, especially for the east coast TAF sites. Winds will
decrease somewhat after 00z, but still be 10-15 knots at times.

MARINE...

Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Gulf Coastal waters
through Monday night.

Small craft should exercise caution over all the Atlantic coastal
waters during the next couple of days.

East-southeast winds at least 15kts will continue over the
Atlantic waters with 15-20kts possible at times as tropical
depression Nine is forecast to move through the Florida Straits
and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday. For the
moment, winds are forecast to veer more south-southwest into mid
week. But considerable uncertainty remains for winds and seas into
mid week hinging on the eventual movement and potential
development of this disturbance.

Over the Gulf coastal waters, the influence of TD Nine will
likely generate winds in the 20 to 25 knots range at times,
especially over the offshore waters. Therefore, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect until Monday night.

Seas are currently forecast to be around 2-4ft over the Atlantic,
while the Gulf could see occasionally up to 6 feet at times.
However this will likely continue to fluctuate with changes in
the forecast.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over all the waters
through midweek, with rough seas and locally gusty winds with any
thunderstorm that forms.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight as a
tropical disturbances passes by to our south. MVFR or IFR
conditions could occur in any shower or thunderstorm activity.
Winds will be out of the east at 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to
25 knots across all terminals this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  89  76  88 /  70  80  80  90
Fort Lauderdale  79  89  77  88 /  70  80  80  80
Miami            78  88  77  87 /  70  80  70  80
Naples           77  91  77  89 /  30  70  70  80

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...54/BNB


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