Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 010134 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
934 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Most of the showers and thunderstorms have dissipated this evening
over South Florida. The only exception to this is for a few
showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters of South Florida.
The winds will be light and variable tonight over the area which
in turn will keep the weather dry over most of South Florida.
However, the west coast metro areas could see a shower or two
through the overnight hours tonight, due to the light southwest
steering flow. Therefore, pops will be removed for most of South
Florida for tonight, with only a slight chance of pops over the
west coast metro areas.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned at this time.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 832 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016/

AVIATION...
The winds will be light and variable tonight into Saturday morning over
all of the taf sites. The winds will then become easterly around
10 knots Saturday afternoon along the east coast taf sites, and
westerly around 10 knots at KAPF taf site. There could be a few
showers around until 02Z tonight before going dry for the
overnight hours and the morning hours of Saturday. VCTS will then
be added to all of South Florida taf sites for Saturday afternoon.
The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR condition tonight into
Saturday, except for the passage of the showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon where it could fall down into MVFR or even IFR
conditions.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 449 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The forecast will be very active through the period, with multiple
weather concerns for South Florida. The pattern over the eastern
US has a 500mb cutoff low sitting over the midwest, and a trough
over the Gulf. There is also a 500mb ridge over the western
Atlantic. The ridge will be the influence for the flow over South
Florida this weekend, generally keeping a light wind out of the
east. Temps at 500mb are forecast to continue to be around -8.5C
to -9C over the region. This, and the trough to the west, will
help to cause showers thunderstorm to develop each day, with
little movement. The conditions are favorable for some strong, to
possibly even a few severe storms, through the weekend.

By Sunday, the cutoff will slide over the Great Lakes region. and
the high will slightly weaken. This weakening is what should allow
Hurricane Matthew to take its sharp northerly turn. The current
track keeps Matthew to our east. However, the track is still
highly uncertain that far out and it could be much closer, or even
further away from the mainland. Either way, it is forecast to
bring hazardous marine conditions to the Atlantic waters next
week. The models also differ quite a bit on timing, with the GFS
being quicker, and the ECMWF being much slower with the system.
The current official track puts the system north of 25N by
Wednesday morning. But again, There is a lot of uncertainty and
the position could end up being very different next week.

Behind the system, when it does exit the area, quieter weather
settles in, with drier air over the region.

In summary, look for showers and storms each day through the
weekend. For next week, conditions should be closely monitored as
Hurricane Matthew has the potential to have and impact on South
Florida, with those impacts highly uncertain at this time.

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible through the weekend. Seas
are forecast to be between 1 and 3 feet until the beginning of
next week. For next week, Hurricane Matthew is forecast to cause
deteriorating marine conditions for the Atlantic waters of South
Florida. The latest wave models suggest seas of 13 feet are
possible for the Gulf Stream by the middle of the week. These
conditions may persist through the end of the week.

AVIATION...
Both the Gulf Coast and east coast sea breeze have developed and will
continue to push inland over the next couple of hours. Showers
and thunderstorms may periodically affect all TAF sites through
01/0200Z. Some of these storms could become strong, capable of
producing gusty/erratic winds over 30KT, as well as low vis in
RA+. Activity will wane overnight, with VFR conds expected to
return.

BEACH FORECAST...
Besides hazardous seas, the risk of rip currents will be enhanced
for much of next week, although the weekend looks to remain as a
low to perhaps moderate risk for all beaches through the weekend.
Also, with the rough seas, there is a potential for beach erosion
along the Atlantic coast.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  76  89  78 /  90  40  60  50
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  89  79 /  60  30  60  50
Miami            90  78  90  78 /  80  30  60  50
Naples           89  75  90  75 /  40  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...54/BNB
UPDATE...54/BNB



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