445
FXUS61 KBGM 170716
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few isolated afternoon rain showers this afternoon but most
will stay dry. Calm and quiet weather under high pressure will
be present tonight through tomorrow morning. Unsettled
conditions return Friday afternoon as another area of low
pressure moves in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
730 PM Update...
Forecast remains mostly on track, made minor changes to cloud
cover based on latest satellite and observations.

245 PM Update...
High level cloud clearing earlier today has allowed the sun to
heat the surface and allow some isolated rain showers to develop
this afternoon, mostly east of I-81. Most of these showers are
not reaching the ground, but a few stronger showers are getting
some rain/drizzle to the surface. This tracks given the dewpoint
depression across much of the region is about 15-20 degrees.
These showers will continue to stream from east to west across
the area this afternoon, directed by a low pressure system off
NJ that is pushing ENE flow across the region. Showers will
dissipate later this evening when we loose the surface heating
from the sun.

High pressure will build into the region tonight. With the low
spinning off the coast, the question is how much clearing may we
get with the suppression from the high battling the moisture
and cloud influx from the low. If we can see a few hours of
clearing, fog development will be possible again in the morning.
Guidance is somewhat all over the place with cloud cover, so
confidence is not very high on fog formation late tonight into
the morning hours. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s
across much of the region. Upper 40s will be present in the
higher elevations of t he Catskills.

Friday will start off wonderfully with partly cloudy skies and
temps climbing into the low 70s by noon. A shortwave trough is
expected to move into the region during the afternoon, bringing
rain showers and a slight chance of a rumble of thunder to the
Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers into the evening. The
timing of the showers and how far east they will migrate is
still a little up in the air as the approaching low and
associated rain will have to fight dry air in place over the
region. Steady showers should be in the area by late afternoon,
spreading SW to NE through the overnight hours as the surface
low lifts to the NNE. Showers should lighten up and become more
scattered by daybreak. Rainfall amounts are expected to be
light, with up to 0.15in expected. Highest amounts should be in
the Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be warm thanks to continuous
southerly flow, remaining in the upper 50s across much of the
region. Higher elevations of the Catskills will fall into the
low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

Remnants of a weak frontal passage may stick around Sunday.
Ridging begins to build into the area Sunday, so it`s more
likely to be very light showers in the morning, with sky cover
decreasing through the day. As ridging slowly strengthens into
Monday, it`ll get warmer and drier with mostly clear skies,
temperatures in the high-70s to low-80s, and low humidity by
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Ridging maintains over our area Tuesday. It`ll be similar to
Monday; low humidity, mostly clear, and temperatures in the
high-70s to low-80s. Some valley areas may even hit mid-80s.
Things begin to get interesting heading into Wednesday. Ridging
begins sliding eastward, making room for the next system to
impact the forecast area Wednesday sometime in the afternoon.
This is still far out in time, and model guidance consensus has
been shaky over the past few days, so timing is very much up in
the air still. As of now, the greatest chances for thunderstorm
development is Wednesday, as a system pushes a frontal boundary
over the forecast area. We`ll keep monitoring this system and
guidance to see any shifts or better confidence from their
solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Valley fog is beginning to form though wont be as widespread as
the previous night. With clouds hanging out over ELM, decided
to keep the tempo as it has slowed cooling. BGM will likely see
some fog reach the hill top later this morning before sunrise
but should not stick around long. A marine layer is pushing
towards AVP but downsloping off the Poconos should keep
scattering out cigs but will be watched just in case MVFR cigs
do make it over. After 12Z, VFR conditions are expected region
wide until late this evening when rain begins to move in from
the west towards 6Z.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...The next system enters the
region with rain and associated restrictions.

Saturday night through Sunday...Decreasing chance of showers but
restrictions still possible.

Monday into Tuesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG