Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 280735
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
235 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Cold front currently extending from Michigan across north central
Illinois then back up into South Dakota will dive south today and
into northwest Middle Tennessee by mid afternoon and continue to
push through the Mid State as we go into the early evening. Look
for a wind shift to accompany frontal passage with wind gusts this
afternoon around 22 mph. I have a shower chance in the forecast
for this afternoon for all but the far southwestern areas. Highs
this afternoon should get up into the upper 70`s to around 80 most
areas. Air mass behind the front will reinforce the cooler Autumn
temps now in place. Broad upper level cyclone will sink southward
from Great Lakes region and bring a small rain chance to the mid
state each period right into Saturday. Temps will be closer to
climatology at least through the weekend before warming into the
80`s next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Dry northwest flow pattern and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through about 22z. It is possible some patchy BR cold form early
Wednesday morning over eastern sections, including the CSV
vicinity. However, any BR that develops will likely be short-lived
and shallow, and confidence in BR development is not high enough
at the moment to introduce into the CSV TAF.

A cold front approaches the area early Wednesday and passes
each Mid-State terminal by the end of the forecast period.
Surface front should be just east of CSV at 03Z/29. Boundary
layer winds increase on Wednesday, as this front moves in, with
gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely at times during the daylight
hours.

Have added a VCSH during a 4-hr window at each terminal, centered
around the time of frontal passage, and have also added a
possibility for MVFR conditions at CSV during the 02z/29-06z/29
time frame.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  50  68  54  72 /  20  20  20  10  30
Clarksville    77  48  65  54  69 /  20  10  20  10  30
Crossville     77  49  64  44  67 /  20  30  20  10  30
Columbia       80  49  68  51  70 /  20  10  20  10  20
Lawrenceburg   80  48  69  51  71 /  20  20  20  10  20
Waverly        77  49  66  53  69 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......01/Boyd
AVIATION........Shamburger



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