Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 301429
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
929 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT A BIT OF SFC MOISTURE AS DEWS ROSE A BIT
OVER WHAT GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED AT 14Z. DONT SUSPECT THIS TO
DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR TODAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO OVER TIME...CONTINUED
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DRY OUT THE SURFACE FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY. THERE
IS A BIT OF CIRROCUMULUS SPREADING IN OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WHICH...ACCORDING TO THE RUC/NAM WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL
CU. THUS TWEAKED SKY GRIDS AND DEW GRIDS MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING
UPDATE PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION

AVIATION...

OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING AT CKV AND CSV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THIS 24-HR TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD/CENTERED TO THE
EAST WILL CREATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/FILTERED SUNSHINE AS HIGH
CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LIGHT NWRLY TO NERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AT EACH TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION....EARLY THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AND CALM
WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK FOR RECORD LOWS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RECORD LOW IN NASHVILLE
FOR JULY 30 IS 58...AND 53 AT CROSSVILLE. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU
WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG MAY BE SEEN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND
LAKES AND RIVERS.

ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IS ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN UNBELIEVABLY
COMFORTABLE FOR JULY. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A FEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND RATHER COOL AGAIN. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MIGRATE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AREA AND ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MID TN.
OTHERWISE...PLEASANT SUMMER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

BY FRIDAY... A TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE GULF COAST. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER
THE TN VALLEY WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
DRAW IN SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY..SO HIGHS
WILL CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE 80S.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND....KEEPING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

INTO NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN...AND ANOTHER DRY
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE OVER OUR WX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S BY
MIDWEEK...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN TOLERABLE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

TB12





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