Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 280250
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
950 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION OVER NRN AL
AND SRN MIDDLE TN IS STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD BUT NOT WITHOUT A
NORTHWARD SURGE OF PRECIP THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS LAWRENCE AND GILES COUNTIES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS RANGE
FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. PRECIP SHOULD START
TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. BUMPED POPS UP
TO LIKELY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z AND TAPER
POPS THEREAFTER AS BEFORE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

EVENING UPDATE...

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE
MAJORITY OF PRECIP FROM UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MS WILL AFFECT
ONLY FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN/SOUTHERN PLATEAU THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BACKED OFF POPS TO HIGH CHC SOUTH
AND SLIGHT CHC NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND TAPERING OFF THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INCREASED OVERNIGHT MINS A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE. NOT SURE SKIES WILL FULLY CLEAR EITHER. THINK
THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TN TONIGHT-DAWN THRS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED AMPLE
RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE...UPDATED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WX
ELEMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT SITUATION. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE AND ALOFT, CENTERED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA, WILL KEEP A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A REDUNDANT WEATHER PATTERN, WITH LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND BR,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND/OR IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AGAIN TO GENERALLY VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AL





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