Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 271204
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
604 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TN THIS
MORNING AS A CANADIAN CLIPPER SLIPS THROUGH THE REGION. SOME -SN
IS FINALLY BEING REPORTED AT KCSV...WHICH IS REDUCING VIS THERE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

CIGS WILL STAY IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL...BUT BEGIN TO RELAX AS WE NEAR SUNSET THIS EVENING.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SNOW HAS HELD OFF MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ACROSS THE TN AND KY BORDER LAST EVENING AND
CURRENTLY IN EASTERN TN. BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE LOW HAS
BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO KY AND CURRENTLY THOSE BANDS OF
SNOW ARE JUST ENTERING NORTH CENTRAL TN. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN AN INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SHORT TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BACKSIDE FORCING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE QPF THROUGH 18Z
TODAY...SO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND PLATEAU THIS MORNING. COLD
TEMPERATURES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD
COVER LINGERS AROUND LONGER DURING THE DAY. HIGHS FOR THE MOST
PART ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MIDDLE TN. THE SUN MAY
POP OUT IF CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS AROUND -8C TO -10C SHOULD ACT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN FORECASTED.

AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
IN ALONG WITH SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
DECREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TODAY AND PAVE THE WAY FOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY 00Z SAT...SO A NICE REBOUND
OF TEMPERATURES WILL HAPPEN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY LATE SATURDAY WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN GENERATING
WEAK QPF OUTPUT ATTM. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE CONUS. THANKFULLY
THIS COLD AIRMASS GETS MODIFIED AS IT SLIDES DOWN THE MIDWEST SO
MIDDLE TN SHOULD NOT SEE A DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE. AFTER THIS
POINT MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS SEPARATING A BIT...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
ON AND OFF THROUGH NEXT WEEK ARE HOLDING IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-080.

&&

$$

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