Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 241125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Sfc high is well off to the east of our area which means return to
southerly flow and return to the humidity. Dew points will be back
in the low 70s today. Aloft, upper level high is in control. With
the return to low level moisture look for a chance of diurnal
thunderstorm today and Thursday. On Friday, a shallow sfc boundary
will slide into the area but the upper level high will still be
around. The sfc boundary will bring a slight increase to pops on
Friday and Saturday as the boundary slides back north as a warm
front. Sunday through Tuesday will see more isolated diurnal
thunderstorms. The big story will be in the tropics. NHC is
currently monitoring a tropical wave near Guadeloupe. GFS and ECMWF
both develop the wave into an organized storm but the models
disagree where to put it. The GFS keeps the upper level high
centered over our area which steers the tropical system up the east
coast of FL and GA before it gets picked up by the upper level flow
and recurves out to sea. The ECMWF slides the upper level high to
the east which keeps the storm on an easterly track across South FL
and then curves the system north once it gets into the Gulf of
Mexico. If this solution holds true, Middle TN will be affected by
the system. At this point, I did not put a lot of weight in either
solution quite yet. This system bears watching over the next
week.

As far as temperatures during the forecast period, starting today,
90s will be back for highs and mild overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Could be a little ground fog around this morning before 1330Z but
otherwise good flying weather for the next 24 hours as upper ridge
dominates along with a retreating surface ridge. Surface pressure
gradient is weak across the area so look for light south wind.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......10/Reagan
AVIATION........01/Boyd



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