Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOHX 270915
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
315 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SOME LIGHT SNOW INDICATED OVER CENTRAL AREAS OF KY.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THE SOUTHWARD MOVING IMPULSE.
HOWEVER...BEST REGION OF PVA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE MID STATE...NORTHERN AREAS OF THE PLATEAU MAY
BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THUS...WITH HRRR IN AGREEMENT WITH
TRENDING TOWARD LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL...WILL OPT TO TREND
DOWNWARD THE SNOW THREAT. HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU ONLY FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY A TRACE TO A
QUARTER INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAT. AREAS JUST WEST OF THE
PLATEAU COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THROUGH TODAY...BUT CLEARING LINE NOT TOO FAR OFF TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

PARTIAL CLEARING WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN JUST
TO OUR NORTH. COLD TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 20
PLATEAU...AND MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.

SUNSHINE WILL BE THE RULE FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE MID STATE SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP CLOSE TO
50 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN BE ON APPROACH AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WED NT INTO THURSDAY. THE
SFC LOW WILL PASS A GOOD DISTANCE TO THE NORTH OF TN. TEMPS WILL
THEREFORE REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S DURING THE DAY.

IN THE EXT FCST...COLDER AND MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. THEN...THE GULF STORM...THAT WE HAVE BEEN
LOOKING AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...WILL BEGIN TO GET ITS ACT
TOGETHER. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...THE EURO MODEL WAS COLDER AND WAS
SUPPORTING A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT WHILE THE GFS WAS A WARMER RAIN
SCENARIO. WELL...THE EURO HAS BACKED OFF AND IS NOW SHOWING MORE OF
A N-S TROUGH INVERSION AS OPPOSED TO THE COLDER W-E AXIS. THIS NOW
MATCHES UP WITH THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION. THUS...WILL TREND TOWARD
MORE OF A RAIN EVENT FOR SAT NT INTO SUNDAY. AT ANY RATE...LOOKS
LIKE ABOUT 1/2 TO PERHAPS 3/4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY AS THE MOISTURE IS PULLING
OUT. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.

MON AND TUES OF NEXT WEEK LOOK COLD...BUT NOTHING TOO BAD AS UPPER
FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY. SPLIT FLOW IS INDICATED BUT THE SOUTHERN JET
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. JUST DRY WITH TEMPS 5 DEGREES OR SO
BELOW NORMAL.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  25  50  38 /  10   0   0  20
CLARKSVILLE    43  25  49  40 /  10   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     37  20  42  35 /  30   0   0  10
COLUMBIA       48  27  52  39 /  10   0   0  20
LAWRENCEBURG   50  28  52  39 /  10   0   0  10
WAVERLY        45  26  51  40 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.