Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 190436
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1136 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

It`s just another glorious day in Middle TN.  Sunny skies,
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and barely a lick of breeze. We
are running a couple of degree below normal, but it`s about time we
see some fall-like weather around here.  High pressure will continue
to rule the roost over the next few days and while we`ll start to
see some southerly boundary layer flow, it won`t be that strong, so
we`ll only warm up a couple of degrees each day.  What we will see
again tomorrow morning (and likely Friday morning, too) is this
dense river fog like we saw this morning.  With temperatures
dropping into the 40s again tomorrow morning and local water
temperatures in the low 70s, expect the fog to begin developing
after midnight and last through 9 or 10 am both tomorrow and Friday
morning.

Beyond the fog, the only sensible weather we can expect the rest of
this week will be Sunday when our next weather maker starts to close
in on the mid-state.  Models have been very consistent digging a
rather amplified upper trough into the Lower Mississippi Valley
Sunday morning and by late Sunday afternoon, we should start to see
showers and a few thunderstorms break into our northwest counties.
The bulk of the rainfall should hold off until the overnight hours
Sunday into Monday, and while thunderstorms might come to an end on
Monday as the front pushes through Middle TN, we could very well see
rain linger into Monday night for areas east of I-65.  As far as
thunderstorm intensity, the bulk of Sunday and Monday`s activity
should be mostly rain, but some general thunderstorms will likely
mix in.  With shear values weakening through the day Sunday, I don`t
expect any severe weather at this time.  Either way, this should be
a decent rainmaker, with just about everybody seeing between an inch
and two inches.

As the Sunday/Monday system pulls away from the mid-state, models
are indicating that the overall longwave pattern really amplifies
over the eastern half of the country. Multiple shortwaves are being
shown to round the base of this trough, which could mean plenty of
cloud cover during the middle of the week and with the bulk of the
upper level flow being northwesterly, temperatures might very well
respond in kind, giving us consistently below average temperatures.
This matches up well to CPC`s 8-14 Day Outlook, too.  Fall could be
here to stay by this time next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Expect some more patchy late night fog to develop in the normally
fog-prone areas, especially around CKV, CSV and MQY. Vsbys at
those three terminals are expected to be mainly a mix of MVFR and
IFR conditions between 07z and 12z. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail during the forecast period, as a stationary
high pressure system over the southeastern United States keeps us
in southerly surface flow below 10 kts and mostly clear skies.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........21



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