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000
FXUS63 KABR 191523 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HANGING ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THESE AREAS TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WINDS ARE BRIEF...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL DEPART THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS AT 925/850MB REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME LLM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ONLY REACHING FOUR TENTH OF
INCH. FOR COMPARISON...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION HAD AROUND SIXTH TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OCCURRING.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE LONG TERM...BUT DOES ALSO APPEAR TO TAKE ON MORE
AMPLITUDE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD S/W RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ENERGY COMING ASHORE THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING/DEEPENING NOTED IN THE UPPER TROF.
PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE
SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
SFC WAVE AND ANY DRY SLOTTING THAT MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PCPN.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KATY THIS
MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN