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000
FXUS63 KABR 162339 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
639 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SEEING A BROAD
AREA OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE SO DID INCREASE
SKY COVER QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY WILL BE QUIET ACROSS THE AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE EAST. DECENT WAA SETS UP AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BIG CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH
MORE WOUND UP SYSTEM AND CONSIDERABLY MORE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WILL
STICK MORE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH HAS A BIT MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW. WITH THE WARM AIR IN
PLACE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO START
OFF AS RAIN MONDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD...LESS THAN
THREE HOURS...WHERE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO ITS
EXPECTED BREVITY AND UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING. GUSTY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS WELL. WITH THE LACK OF
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS...HAVE OPTED TO FORGO A WATCH FOR THE TIME
BEING AND WILL JUST HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN AN SPS.

THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH EAST TUESDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE
PRECIPITATION TO AN END BUT LEAVING COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE.





.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TO COVER
THIS. OTHERWISE...OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS COOL AND SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE...ALTHOUGH NO HUGE SYSTEMS SHOWN BY MODELS AT THIS TIME. IT
APPEARS THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER WAVES THAT TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES...DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM INHERITED
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
ONE MILD DAY BUT AFTER THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER ONCE AGAIN.





&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KMBG. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH THE WINDS...LOWERED VSBY AT
KMBG IN RAIN TO MVFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN