Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261155 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
655 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Main issue in the short term is the upper circulation over the
region and wrap-around moisture moving through the CWA. Currently
seeing light to moderate snowfall across northeast SD into west
central MN. Still enough of a warm layer aloft to bring some brief
periods of freezing drizzle or light freezing rain as well, but
expect this trend to slowly diminish through the morning as the
column continues to cool. Increased POPs and snow accums across the
area based on latest model trends. Could see upwards of 3 or 4
inches perhaps across northern Brown county along the ND border, as
well as east of there into Marshall county. Issued an SPS earlier
this morning to highlight mixed precip with snow accums. Will
continue to monitor trends early this morning for possible headlines
to deal with snow accumulations through the rest of the morning.
Models agree pretty well in bringing wrap-around snowfall into the
Coteau region back west through the James valley.

Once this system departs tonight, conditions look mostly quiet
through the rest of the short term, albeit rather chilly still. Only
seeing highs in the mid 40s to low 50s Thursday and Friday, which is
well below normal for this time of year. Overnight lows tonight and
Thursday night look to be dropping into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

No notable changes in the out periods compared to 24 hours ago. 00Z
deterministic and ensemble solutions, although trending warmer
toward the end of the period, still highlight colder than normal
conditions across central and northeast SD and wc MN heading into
the first week of May. The latest 8 to 14 day outlook is also still
showing a higher probability of colder than normal temperature
averaged over that week 2 timeframe across this region. As far as
weather concerns go in the out periods, the forecast is dry until
Sunday. Still eyeing up a weather system that the 00Z ECMWF and GEM
showed a fair amount of agreement concerning for late in the day
Sunday through Monday morning. These two models (and to a lesser
degree the GFS, too) bring a large wound up system out of the four
corners region during the weekend and lift it northeast over the
central and northern plains through Monday. Currently, it appears a
portion of the eastern or southeastern forecast zones could get into
some of the deformation/TROWAL-zone forcing for precipitation Sunday
afternoon through early Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

IFR/MVFR cigs will remain over the area today, with some
improvement in flight category anticipated later this
afternoon/evening over central SD (KPIR). A mixed bag of
precipitation will also continue over northeast SD into wc MN with
periods of light freezing drizzle this morning becoming just plain
drizzle this afternoon with some daytime warming back to or above
the freezing mark at KATY. KATY may also see precip-type change
over to light snow few a few hours this morning. KABR should
continue in light to moderate snow this morning into this
afternoon before precipitation begins to wane there. KABR, KATY
and probably KMBG will remain under sub-VFR cigs into tonight
before there is any potential for conditions to improve and for
low clouds to go away.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ006>008-011.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Dorn



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