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000
FXUS63 KABR 022122
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD