Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162043
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
343 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

An area of rain associated with an upper level shortwave trough
overhead and a surface low pushing up from the south will continue
to affect mainly the southern and eastern portions of the CWA late
this afternoon, then just the eastern CWA this evening into the
overnight hours. Areas along and east of Interstate 29 may see
rainfall amounts in excess of half an inch into the evening hours.
This system will push east of the area on Thursday, with high
pressure dropping in and bringing a return to dry and warmer
conditions, along with mostly sunny skies.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 50s to the lower
60s. High temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 70s to
the mid 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Short wave trough and surface cool front still on track to affect
the region Thursday night into Friday as they slide in from the
northwest. Models continue to agree well and have been consistent
with this system bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, surface high pressure ridging will build in behind
Friday afternoon and night, and then to the southeast on
Saturday. The models continue to show an upper level low pressure
area moving across central Canada forcing a surface cold front
slowly southeast and across much of the Dakotas Saturday through
Sunday. The upper level flow will be westerly aloft allowing for
this boundary to slow down or stall out. At this time, this
boundary does not look to be active with showers/storms from
Friday night through Sunday until a short wave trough moves in
from the west. Thus, have it dry from Friday night through Sunday
with chances of showers/storms coming back for Sunday night. As
this boundary slows down/stalls chances of showers/storms remain
across the southern CWA Monday. The upper level flow then becomes
northwest from Monday night into Tuesday with Canadian surface
high pressure pushing in from the northwest bringing dry and
cooler conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will be warming up from Friday into Saturday as winds
become south behind the exiting high pressure area. Above normal
temperatures in the mid 80s to the lower 90s are expected on
Saturday in advance of the surface front. Would not be surprised
with some mid 90s out west on Saturday afternoon. Cooler air will
bring temperatures back to near to slightly below normal for Sunday
through Wednesday dominated by surface high pressure.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Rain will continue across the southern and eastern portions of
the CWA this afternoon and into the evening hours. An isolated
thunderstorm or two are also possible. Cigs will generally be in
the MVFR category with the rain, with vsbys occasionally dropping
to MVFR levels as well. VFR conditions will prevail where it isn`t
raining. This system will push off to the east later tonight, with
conditions becoming VFR across the entire area by sunrise
Thursday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Parkin



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