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000
FXUS63 KABR 041605 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1005 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ALL DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WRAPS PRECIPITATION BACK OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CURRENTLY FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS WEST...WITH FAR EASTERN AREAS NOT QUITE IN
THE STRONG WINDS YET. ALTHOUGH...THE STRONG WINDS WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR EASTERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES EVENTUALLY. KUNR/KBIS RADARS SHOW LIGHT SNOW
ALL THE WAY BACK WEST INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS QUITE A BIT BACK FURTHER WEST AND FOR A LONGER DURATION.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS TODAY AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY OOZE
SOUTHEAST. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WSW PRODUCT SHORTLY
BUT NOTHING MAJOR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LIGHT SNOW HAS BLANKETED THE AREA...WITH A FEW HEAVIER BANDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOWFALL TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...AND EVEN LINGERING
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. NOT EXPECTING HUGE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD AIR
SURGES SOUTHWARD...BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...AND POSSIBLY TWO TO FOUR ADDITIONAL INCHES ACROSS THE EAST.
THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE WINTER STORM WARNING SNOWFALL CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BUFKIT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL IS INDICATING 30 TO 35 KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER. FOR AREAS WHERE FALLING SNOW COMBINES WITH THE
GUSTY WINDS...VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED. DIDNT WANT TO
DOWNGRADE HEADLINES WHEN THE WORST WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE PERCEIVED THIS AFTERNOON...SO LEFT HEADLINES INTACT. THE
DAY SHIFT CAN GET A FEW GROUND TRUTH REPORTS AND ADJUST HEADLINES
AS NECESSARY.

AFTER SNOWFALL ENDS...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES BECOME THE NEXT
CONCERN. WILL LIKELY BE NEEDING WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES IN
THE UPCOMING DAYS. TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING THE NORTHERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW TWENTY FIVE
BELOW...AND THEN BY FRIDAY MORNING IT APPEARS THE ENTIRE CWA WILL
DROP INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY AM...ALLOWING
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS TO EXPERIENCE IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS
AND THUS VERY LOW TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE THAT A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL ADVECT CIRRUS IN THE
AREA...WHICH MAY TEMPER THE DROP OFF.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A
LOW CHANCE FOR POPS...THE MAIN ISSUE IS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTING THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITHIN
THE GFS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS MEANS THAT SNOW IS LIKELY TO
STOP JUST SHORT OF THE CWA BEFORE EVAPORATING AND OUTRUNNING
UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWING THE SAME PROGRESSION...CENTERING OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AM...FOR ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RIDICULOUSLY LOW
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS AND VISBY WILL BE MAKING A VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE DAY. DESPITE THE SNOW MOVING OUT TODAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP
RESULTING IN LOWER VISBY DUE TO BLOWING. NORTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH KATY SEEING WINDS HANG ON
THE LONGEST. CIGS MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-
     HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SPINK-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN