Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 242021 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MODELS. THE STRONG SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GOOD PRESSURE FALLS AREA IN SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS...CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. HIGHS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH NOT MUCH FOR WIND.
OTHERWISE...HAVE DROPPED/DECREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS NOW LIKE THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING BETTER LIFT
AND MOISTURE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE THIS
TREND. THUS...MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS...SLOWLY TRACKING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS OUR CWA.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN BE MAINLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS WEAK
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD. THE UPPER FLOW DOES TURN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. COOL TEMPERATURES AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGHOUT THE
TIME FRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
OTHER MINOR CONCERN MAY BE SOME CU THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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