Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 282052
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS OF NOW THE 12 UTC MODELS
POINT TO MORE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE
TO NO ICE CRYSTALS IN CLOUDS. FOR NOW COVERAGE IS PATCHY AND WILL
PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

OTHERWISE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GUSTS WERE NEAR 40
MPH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME SEE NO REASON FOR ANY
WIND HEADLINES AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PACKAGE PROVIDES GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. CLIPPERS ARE PROJECTED
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND TUESDAY...PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/LOCATIONS...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR FOR ALL TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
TAFS AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MORE LIKELY BE FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR SIMPLY DRIZZLE...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY
ACROSS THE REGION THUS HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH BR IN THE TAFS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...MM







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