Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 062350
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A FEW SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON FROM EAST CENTRAL MT INTO SOUTHWEST
ND AS OF 2350 UTC...SO WE LINGERED A LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS
THAT AREA A BIT LONGER...UNTIL 02 UTC. OTHERWISE...SIGNIFICANT
DRYING IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS VIA
MIXING IN THE 18-25 F RANGE IN SASKATCHEWAN NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE
/HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM/ THAT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ND LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS...A CLEAR SKY...AND
SUBSIDENCE TIED TO THE SURFACE RIDGE...WE LOWERED FORECAST LOWS IN
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND BY 2-5 F. THAT IS IN LINE WITH BIAS-
CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH CALLS FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S F
IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND LOW-END /20 PERCENT/ POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER MORE OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND THROUGH 00 UTC. MOST
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR IS LIKELY
NOT REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THE DICKINSON ASOS DID REPORT BRIEF
LIGHT RAIN SO AT LEAST SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING IN SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
INTO TONIGHT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 19 UTC SUGGEST SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PROPAGATED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SMOKE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND DRY
SATURDAY IS FAVORED BY THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

RAINFALL CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MARK AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE
POTENTIAL TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM
KISN TO KMOT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TONIGHT
AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...PJA
LONG TERM...PJA
AVIATION...CJS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.