Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221424
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
924 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC AS RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ONLY CHANGES FOR MORNING
UPDATE IS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

OVERALL QUIET...MILD WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH EMBEDDED CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OPENING UP THIS WAVE AS IT
APPROACHES OUR REGION...REACHING WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z TUE.
AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES TODAY WILL ALSO SEE
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING...MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COINCIDENT WITH STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODELS MAINTAIN BEST
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE BORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN SUNDAY...IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
SOME LOCATIONS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY...LIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING MOST PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND HAVE EVEN DRIED OUT THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN ENDS A BIT. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED PRECIP
CHANCES BACK A BIT AND HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCES OVER FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A BIT COOLER OVER THESE AREAS UNDER CLOUD COVER...WHILE
REMAINING AREAS WILL BE QUIET MILD.

RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. FOR THE WEEKEND...UPPER LOW PUSHES ONSHORE AND WORKS
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME TROUBLE ON WHEN
THIS SYSTEM WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AND WHAT
PATH IT WILL TAKE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH SOME PRECIP
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
MODELS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 912 AM  CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






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