Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 131414
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
814 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

No changes requried for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 626 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

No change other than for observed trends through 12 UTC as
dangerous wind chills continue this morning across western and
central North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Dangerous wind chills this morning highlight the short term
forecast.

No change to the ongoing Wind Chill Warning and Wind Chill
Advisory that remain in effect until Noon CST today. As of 09
UTC, widespread lows of 25 to 35 below have been observed across
most of northwest and central North Dakota, with the coldest
reading being -35 at the Hazen airport. Relatively warmer
temperatures of 10 to 20 below are being reported across the
southwest with the onset of return flow. Dangerous wind chills to
45 below will continue this morning.

A very slow recovery in temperatures is expected today as return
flow increases across western and central North Dakota. Highs for
the day are likely to come in the very late afternoon or early
evening, ranging from around 0 to 5 above central, to the teens
above southwest based on a 00 UTC guidance suite consensus. There
is a chance for light snow far southwest as a mid level wave
propagates southeast out of Canada this afternoon. Accumulations
of one inch or less are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Blowing snow potential Sunday, another Arctic high pressure
system and dangerous wind chills Sunday night through Tuesday
morning, and a temperature recovery thereafter highlight the
extended forecast.

A breezy day is forecast across western and central North Dakota
on Sunday as a 1050-1052 mb surface high begins to build across
the Northern Plains. Trended above the 00 UTC guidance consensus
for winds for Sunday based on the 00 UTC NAM/GFS bufr soundings
supporting the potential for gusts of 25-30kts across most of the
area, aided by isallobaric forcing. There is a chance for snow
showers Sunday with the baroclinic zone on the leading edge of
the next Arctic airmass. Will have to monitor the potential for
reduced visibilities in blowing snow and falling snow. A Winter
Weather Advisory may be possible, but not certain.

Dangerous wind chills are once again expected Sunday night through
Tuesday morning with the aforementioned Arctic high across the
Northern Plains. Sufficient mixing as the high is building in
through Monday morning should keep lows in the 15 to 20 below
range. However, widespread lows of 20 to 30 below are forecast Tuesday
morning with a favorable position of the surface high across the
James River Valley by that time.

For mid to late next week, upper level ridging across the Northern
Plains suggests a potential return to above normal and above
freezing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 626 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions to begin the 12Z TAF period, although local MVFR
visibility in fog and ice crystals is possible at KBIS/KISN this
morning. As warmer southerly flow returns through the day today,
MVFR clouds will start to spread west to east into western and
central North Dakota. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into
KDIK around 17-18z and KBIS/KMOT/KISN around 20z-23z, and possibly
KJMS by 02-04 UTC. Light snow showers are possible this afternoon
across far southwest North Dakota.

Just beyond this 24-hr TAF forecast another arctic cold front
late Saturday night and Sunday will bring gusty northwest winds,
light snow showers and blowing snow.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ017>020-031>035-040>046-050-051.

Wind Chill Warning until noon CST today for NDZ001>005-009>013-
021>023-025-036-037-047-048.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA


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