Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181145

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Quick update to freshen up hourly grids. Previous shift updated
pops just before 6 AM.

UPDATE Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Have updated for the southern part of the forecast area to include
a small pop for the early into mid morning. This as light showers
developed in what appears to be weak mid level lifting associated
with the nose of positive vorticity advection with the wave
passing through.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A cold front along the Canadian Border this morning will be
pushing through the forecast area today. There was weak mid level
support for the front as a short wave rides east along the
international line. Isolated rain showers in northeast Montana
this morning will move east and across the northern part of the
forecast area today. A few hundreths of an inch of rain is about
all that the system will muster.

temperatures today will vary considerably from the mostly cloudy
and behind the cold front areas of the north, to the South Dakota
border counties where some sunshine will act to moderate the air.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Wednesday is the coolest day and then temperatures trend to above
normal levels.

Zonal flow is the main story in the long term with mainly dry
weather. A short wave could clip the northern parts of the
forecast area over the coming weekend with small precipitation
chances. Above normal temperatures are forecast with about 5
degrees above average for lows to around 7 degrees above average
for highs, at least through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

a cold front across northern North Dakota will move south and will
be the focus for MVFR ceilings from KISN-KMOT. A brief period of IFR
ceilings and vsbys are possible at KISN and KMOT Tuesday morning
through 15 UTC, with MVFR ceilings remaining through around 18
UTC. VFR conditions KDIK-KBIS-KJMS today. MVFR ceilings moving
into southwest ND including KDIK at the end of the 12z TAF period.
Generally west to northwest flow through the 06 UTC TAF period.




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