Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211636

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1136 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
the dense fog has lifted and visibilities improved well above one
quarter mile. Most sites at least 3 miles or greater and this will
continue to improve through noon. With that said, will cancel the
dense fog advisory. Mostly sunny conditions expected as the
stratus lifts into a cumulus field and mixes out later this
afternoon. Cirrus clouds will begin to overspread the west this
afternoon. Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 933 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Based on the GOES16 visible imagery loop and HRRR visibility
field, have decided to extend the Dense Fog Advisory most areas
until 17z/Noon CDT Friday. Exceptions to this were counties in
the James River Valley and in the far north central where the
majority of the counties were clear, and not expecting any further
advection or fog development. Updates forthcoming.

UPDATE Issued at 835 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Based on webcam trends through 13 UTC and the 12 UTC RAP/HRRR,
extended the dense fog advisory through 10 am CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Dense fog has spread through much of the area per latest
observations and spotter reports. The only exception so far is
far northwest North Dakota and portions of the far southern James
River Valley. Latest HRRR seems to have a rather good grasp on
this and keeps the fog in place through the early morning eroding
it out around mid-morning. A dense fog advisory was issued a
little over an hour ago when the fog started to really set in, and
will expire at 900 am cdt.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Current surface analysis places trough stretching along the
eastern edge of the Rockies, while high settles through the
eastern plains into the upper Midwest. Upper level analysis places
modest ridge over the northern plains, with trough dipping through
the Rockies. Over our region, areas of fog have developed and
continue to spread through random portions of the area.

For today...areas of fog will continue through early morning,
diminishing late morning. Otherwise, a pleasant day is expected
with mild temperatures while modest upper ridge remains over the
region. Mainly quiet weather continues tonight, though a wave
passing to the north may allow some light showers to sneak into
northern portions of the area as it pushes upper level level high
to the south while a cold front approaches the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Aforementioned cold front settles into far northern portions of
the area on Saturday, then starts to back into northeastern
portions of the area overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will
bring cooler temperatures to these areas along with shower chances
along and north of the boundary. To the south, milder temperatures

Sunday night into Monday, an aggressive short wave trough
approaches the region while a surface low deepens near the Black
Hills and pushes easterly. This will bring increasing
precipitation chances to the area. Most precipitation that does
develop will be rain, but can not rule out some snow developing
over northern locations. Chances diminish Monday night.

Models then start to differ for the remainder of the week with
where to place the next upper low over the region. With that said,
will continue to places some precipiation chances in the forecast
given the generally unsettled pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Bkn to sct cumulus field/vfr cigs expected this afternoon. Cirrus
clouds will overspread the western terminals, otherwise no
aviation issues expected through 12z Saturday. 12z-18z Saturday a
cold front will sag south into northern ND, affecting KMOT/KISN
with mvfr cigs, especially between 15z and 18z Saturday.




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