Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 022358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

COLD FRONT NEARLY THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...SO HAVE SCALED
BACK ON EVENING PRECIPITATION/THUNDER CHANCES A BIT...ENDING ALL
POPS OVER MY FAR SOUTHEAST BY 04Z. WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET (~01Z)...SO WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE RED
FLAG WARNING AS SCHEDULED BY 02Z.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRE UP NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK SHORT
WAVE SLIDING THROUGH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE EAST. MOST
ACTIVITY SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING
PER LATEST HIGH-RES IMAGERY WHICH HAS HAD A RATHER GOOD HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE STORMS. THERE REMAINS A LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONCERN
GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY LOW LAYERS...THOUGH WITH
WEAK FORCING AND MODEST INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT ANY
RAINFALL LOOKS SPOTTY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A LARGE TROUGH /H5
LOW WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY.

A BRIEF H5 RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
LIFTS INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA
COULD RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK FROM 10-15K FT
AGL THROUGH 12Z. CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION.

ON SUNDAY...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGE AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WILL BE
NEEDED.

WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...JJS


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