Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 100452
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

OVERALL FOREACST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR TWEAKS TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY SOUTHWEST BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES NORTH
WITH MORE EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH TOWARD THE SD BORDER. FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CWA
SO THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED/CANCELLED. RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

MAIN CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WERE TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER AND
CANCEL RED FLAG WARNING FOR DICKEY COUNTY. HUMIDITY HAS INCREASED
TO OVER 30 PERCENT FAR SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES ALTHOUGH IT IS MARGINAL IN MANY LOCATIONS. WILL
NEED ANOTHER UPDATE WITHIN THE HOUR FOR WESTERN PART OF THE STATE
WHERE THE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. ONE SHOWER
AROUND 4 PM CDT PRODUCED A 77 MPH GUST AT HETTINGER AND 72 MPH
GUST NEAR BOWMAN...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH NORTHERN TONGUE OF
1000+ J/KG AREA OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE WHICH DECREASED RAPIDLY
AFTERWARD...SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
INCLUDING SOME 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS NORTHWEST ND. OTHERWISE...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY THROUGH MOST OF CWA WITH SOME LIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TROUGH THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LATE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. PRESSURE RISES HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST THUS
MAX GUSTS MAY BE OVER HERE...BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. LATEST 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...AND LINGERING THROUGH MID EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE CWA. THUS CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE.

SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTENDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW
LEVEL AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH INCREASING
BULK SHEAR AND FAVORABLE INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATED THAT
IF WE DO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST AND EXIT OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AROUND
9 PM. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS THEREAFTER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW TRAVERSES THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND PACIFIC COAST
RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUPPORTS A NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL START TO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...TRANSITIONING TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS IS THE COLD OUTLIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS THURSDAY WITH
KMOT AND KJMS EXPERIENCING STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN 20KT AND 30KT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN. HIGH
FLOWS FROM SNOWMELT RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE CEDAR
AND CANNONBALL BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CANNONBALL AT
BREIEN TO RISE ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...WHILE HIGH FLOWS ARE NOTED ON THE HEART RIVER ACROSS
EASTERN STARK AND INTO MORTON COUNTY...WATER IS BEING ATTENUATED
BY HEART BUTTE DAM AND NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED. FINALLY...FLOOD
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOURIS RIVER NEAR TOWNER AND THE WILLOW
CREEK NEAR WILLOW CITY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...AYD






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.