Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240235
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE WILL BE LOWERING LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE OF A DROP AS CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER. WILL ALSO ADD THE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS ASHLEY WEBCAM SHOWS
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO
ERODE. HAVE ALSO INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE HIGHER CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12 UTC 23 MAR RUN...AND
HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE 00 UTC 23
MAR MODEL RUNS. ENVELOPE OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAS ALSO NARROWED
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR PRECIPITATION
TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POPS WERE RAISED LATE TONIGHT.
POPS WERE ALSO RAISED ACROSS THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

CURRENTLY..SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PUSHING ONTO THE NORTH AMERICAN
COAST FROM OREGON NORTHWARD INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL AID
IN THE SLOW DEEPENING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. OVER NORTH DAKOTA...STRATUS
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND HAS CLEARED ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN TIER COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE IT HAS BEEN SUNNY MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST WHERE LOW STRATUS IS SLOW TO BURN OFF.

TONIGHT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. LATEST 19 UTC RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS LINGERING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CWA WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NORTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING. THUS JAMESTOWN AND MINOT MAY SEE ONLY A BRIEF CLEAR
PERIOD THIS EVENING BEFORE STRATUS MOVES BACK IN. BISMARCK MAY
ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF CLOUDS THIS EVENING BUT REMAINS JUST WEST OF
THE LOWER STRATUS SHIELD.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AROUND 12 UTC TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES LIKELY MORE TOWARD 12
UTC. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER.

TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AROUND A HARVEY/CARRINGTON LOCATION BY 00 UTC
WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS ARE STRONGER AND MORE IN
LINE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MESOSCALE MODELS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ON
TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LIKELY DUE
TO DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM. UTILIZING A MODEL BLEND WITH HPC FOR QPF AMOUNTS WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR SNOW RATIO`S. THIS IS MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF SNOW TUESDAY MORNING...AND AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OVER MAINLY DIVIDE AND BURKE COUNTIES.
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WARM. WILL DEFINITELY
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
HAS INCREASED...THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN
AND WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW...AND HOW MUCH WILL MELT
BEFORE ACCUMULATING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPS AND NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. THE SNOW CONTINUES AND WINDS ALSO
INCREASE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DISCUSSED
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY STORM.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR...FINALLY...WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE TUES/WED SURFACE LOW. THE 12 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/NAM NOW SHOW THE NORTHERN OF THE TWO SURFACE LOWS AS
BEING THE STRONGER/DEEPER LOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BISECT
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE. IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. AS THE SURFACE LOW
PROPAGATES EAST...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD AND BEGIN
TRANSITIONING RAIN TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY AND AREA OF 1 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2....WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER
CONCERN AS THE LOW PASSES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. WINDS
COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 70
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS






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