Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 081813

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1213 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Issued at 1213 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

We let the wind chill advisory expire as planned with this update.
However, we will likely need another wind chill advisory for most
if not all of western and central ND for tonight through Friday
morning. We`ll make that decision by the next forecast issuance.
Otherwise, this update just accommodated blending recent trends in
observational data into the afternoon forecast, which included an
increase in forecast sky cover over western ND where a thin layer
of stratus is seen on low-light satellite channels and is being
detected by ASOS/AWOS sensors. That said, it does appear that many
of airport sensors are more aggressive in reporting a lower cloud
deck than is really occurring as they may be detecting suspended
ice crystals in several cases.

UPDATE Issued at 937 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Have allowed winter weather advisory for portions of central North
Dakota to expire as conditions have improved, but will carry
patchy blowing snow into early this afternoon as winds remain
elevated. Expect a gradual decrease this afternoon as surface high
continues to push in. As for wind chill advisory, will keep it
going through noon CDT as a handful of reporting stations
continue to show wind chills within criteria. Tonight still looks
to be quite frigid, so expect a return of wind chill headlines
across much if not all of the area.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Winds have been slowly diminishing early this morning which has
helped visibilities improve across the region. Considered
cancelling the winter weather advisory, but decided against it
since there could still be areas, especially in open country, that
experience reduced visibilities this morning. The wind chill
advisory is generally on track and also continued that with this

The main adjustments were to blend in current conditions and
adjust pops to focus them more towards the eastern part of the
forecast area. That being said, we held onto small pops across the
central part of the state since it has been easy to generate
flurries / light snow in this arctic airmass.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Early morning regional radar mosaic and surface observations show
the light snow is now mainly confined to eastern portions of the
state. The general model consensus is that the snow chances should
gradually wane through the day as it ends from west to east across
the forecast area. Winds have remained gusty, especially from the
Turtle Mountains southward towards the southern James River
Valley. Visibilities remain restricted in the 1-3 mile range where
the current winter weather advisory is in place. Will hold onto
the headline for now and allow winds to subside a little more this

Wind chills have already reached advisory criteria in parts of the
west this morning. Temperatures should continue to drop for
several more hours, so will also keep the wind chill advisory
going this morning.

The challenge for later tonight will be clouds and temperatures.
It appears clouds could remain in some locations, but it may not
be a solid overcast. Anywhere the clouds break, temperatures will
quickly drop with arctic high pressure in place, potentially
leading to very cold temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

The next chance for accumulating snow appears to still be on
track for Saturday. There is still spread within the models
solutions and this is easily seen in the GEFS and SREF plumes. For
now, continued with a model blend for pops and qpf which is also
in line with WPC. The remainder of the forecast should be
dominated by cold temperatures. Highs should generally be in the
single digits above zero, with lows in the single digits and teens


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Northwest winds will gradually diminish today. However, at noon CST
winds at KJMS were around 20 knots with higher gusts causing some
reduction in blowing snow. At KJMS there is a thin layer of IFR
reported...but think this is ice crystals lofting in the air with
the blowing snow - but added this mention in the TAFS with a
scattered layer around 800 feet. Expect that by around 22z the winds
will subside enough for better visibilities.

Otherwise, a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings expected today...becoming
VFR this evening. Later tonight around/after 06z MVFR ceilings
returning at KISN/KDIK/KBIS as lower ceilings move in or form from
west to east.




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