Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251811
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
111 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING WINDS. STILL WINDY
EAST AND WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT NOON...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. FULLY EXPECT WE WILL BE
ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY WITH OUR NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TO SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BREAK ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL...CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE. DO EXPECT A SLOW CLEARING
TREND BY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS LIFTING. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE...OTHERWISE NO UPDATES
OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOW THE SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE LOOPS CONFIRM LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
ERODING CLOUDS ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN. THE NORTH CENTRAL SHOULD SEE
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
ISALLOBARIC TRENDS SHOULD CARRY THE PRESSURE SURGE EAST OF THE
REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BEGIN BACKING
OFF AROUND NOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING ACROSS MY EAST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND/TROWAL INDUCED SNOW ALL BUT OVER ACROSS
MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS FORCING DIMINISHES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES IN THE LOW`S WAKE AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE STRONGER MAGNITUDES AND GUSTS CENTRAL DEVELOPING
EAST.

NAM/GFS BUFKIT ANALYSIS PUTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MY FAR EAST...ESPECIALLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE 40-45 KTS WILL INTRUDE INTO THE MIXED LAYER THIS
MORNING. GUST POTENTIAL TAPERS OFF AT AROUND 18Z AND THEREAFTER.
THUS OPTED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AM HOURS...NOW THROUGH 18Z.

RATHER CHILLY TODAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. WE WILL NOT SEE RETURN FLOW UNTIL TONIGHT
WEST...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE. LINGERING
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING MORE SCT-BKN AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA MOVING OUR WAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EAST TO ALONG THE
ND/MT BORDER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THIS
FEATURE AND TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE WARMING TREND BROUGHT TO US
BY THE H500 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST NOW MOVING INLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC AND RETURN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY.
FIRST...THURSDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WEST (WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EAST. ALREADY HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 60 WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S
CENTRAL. THE NORTH CENTRAL WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WHICH WILL HAVE SOME BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCATTERED RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN THE 50S. A RETURN TO MILDER
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AGAIN POPS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN US THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LIFT AND SPREAD. HOWEVER...MVFR
CEILINGS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KDIK AND KJMS. THESE
SHOULD LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A QUICK MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW AND POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILINGS TO KISN AND KDIK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-048-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH






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