Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 201507
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
907 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

ISOLATED FLURRIES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS UNDER THE STRATUS DECK. EXTENDED THE ISOLATED
FLURRIES MENTION THROUGH LATE MORNING DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW
EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CLEAR SKIES
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. SOLID STRATUS
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
AND MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE OVERALL TIMING IN THE MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE WEST...ITS EVENTUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND EROSION...AND ITS
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THIS MORNING INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL LESSEN AS THE FLOW
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A TRANSITORY
RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z FRIDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES
OR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SEEN OR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...HENCE WILL CONTINUE WITH NON-MEASURABLE POPS. THAT SAID THE
FLURRIES BEING PRODUCED WEST OF BISMARCK INTO LINTON VIA
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SAKAKAWEA WILL SUBSIDE AND END SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE WEST.

THE LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG/SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
LIGNITE TO STANLEY TO BISMARCK AND LINTON. EAST OF THIS LINE IT
REMAINS CLEAR. 925MB-H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 15Z-18Z AND THEN TRANSLATE NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL SHIFT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BUT GRADUALLY
THIN/ERODE AT THE SAME TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/UPGLIDE ON THE
275K PRESSURE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE FLURRIES WEST THROUGH MID
MORNING AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE CURRENT
THINKING IS TO MAINTAIN THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN THE AREA
MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING THEN BEGIN TO SHOW
BREAKS THEREAFTER. WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES IN BISMARCK BY
18Z AND EXPECTATIONS ARE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE LOW CLOUDS...TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER TEENS EAST TO THE MID/UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FOG OR STRATUS FORMING AFTER
SUNSET ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW LEVEL RH INCREASING WITH TIME. HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS
BUT LEFT FOG MENTION OUT FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN RE-EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
COMPARATIVELY MILD DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
THIRTIES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREAFTER WE
RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN FEATURING A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND LIFTS FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL COMBINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...JOINING WITH THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.

MODEL UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THEN AS THE CLIPPER MOVES EAST AND THE UPPER
TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW. BY THIS TIME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED BRINGING MUCH COLDER AIR AND THE THREAT
OF BLOWING SNOW. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW LINGERING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS AS
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WE GET A SHORT BREAK TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST AND COLD AIR
DESCENDS FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

A SOLID AREA OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS. EXPECTING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUD AREA TO REACH KMOT BY 13Z THURSDAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE AT KJMS WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS TRYING
TO NUDGE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT A SCT CLOUD
DECK AT KJMS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE CLOUD SHIELD SLOWLY ADVANCES EAST. MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 21Z THURSDAY...VARYING
BETWEEN 3000FT AND 3500FT AGL...MVFR/VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






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