Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 182101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
401 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Late this afternoon and this evening an isolated thunderstorm or
two is possible in the southwest. The SPC day 1 convective outlook
has the far southwest corner in a marginal risk for a severe
storm. The current ECMWF/GFS/RAP are indicating ample 0-6 km bulk
shear with values around 60 kts but the low/mid level lapse rates
and CAPE values are not impressive. Any chance for severe
thunderstorms in the southwest appear to be slight. The CAMS are
scattered with only the HRRR hinting at something in the southwest
around 22Z.

As we get into Wednesday, an embedded pulse in the zonal flow aloft
will result in chances for another round of showers and
thunderstorms. SPC has most of the south in a marginal risk for
severe storms. Severe weather ingredients look more promising for
storms becoming strong to severe. Additionally, the current suite
of ensemble and deterministic models are in good agreement on an
area of QPF moving from the west to southeast through the day. The
WPC day 2 QPF valid for Wednesday has between 0.10 and 0.25
inches of rain for much of western and central ND. West central
and south central areas are painted with values between 0.25 and
0.75 inches of rain. Locally higher amounts are possible with

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Most of the action for the extended will come Thursday evening
through Friday, as a weak wave aloft will bring chances for showers
and thunderstorms. The SPC day 3 convective outlook has most of
western and central ND highlighted in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. The 12Z ECMWF/GFS convective parameters for Thursday
are sufficient for the development of strong to severe storms.

The outlook for the rest of the long term, a chance or two for a
thunderstorm and near seasonal temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Thunderstorms around KJMS as of this writing were moving east and
will be out of the area by 18/1300Z. Other showers and isolated
-TSRA will continue moving through southern North Dakota until
 18/1600Z. VFR KDIK-KISN-KMOT. Isolated storms are possible in
 northwest North Dakota after 19/0000Z.




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