Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 022005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH LOW
OVER MANITOBA WHILE TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PALACES TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE SUBTITLE SHORT WAVE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. NEXT TROUGH TO APPROACH THE AREA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS ON
TAP AS FLAT RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE EAST AS AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES THE REGION. SURFACE LOW WORKS
ITS WAY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN MONTANA AND
APPROACHES NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AFFILIATED COLD FRONT BY THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS THIS
FEATURE WORKS ITS WAY IN. GREATER COVERAGE AND GREATER SEVERE
THREAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE EVENING (SEE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION)...THOUGH WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR NORTHWEST/SOUTHCENTRAL/AND INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PER SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO SPAWN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AND
QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...THE WEATHER
PATTERN IS QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY RETURN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER AND 12Z MODEL SUITE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 0.60 AND 0.75 INCHES FROM KENMARE
TO GARRISON...AND FROM MINOT TO SHERWOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SPC HAS MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. BEST DYNAMICS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTH...WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT/THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH/AND LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH ALL COME TOGETHER PRODUCING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT PER THE H85-H3 OMEGA FIELD. HENCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS FORECAST IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS ROBUST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AT
55KT TO 60KT. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS REMAIN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN 55F AND 60F...WITH SOME OF THIS BEING ADVECTED VIA A
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER DUE TO A RATHER SHORT DURATION OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE MAXIMUM MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHEST
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN LIMITED DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM FORCING
WHICH OCCURS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z THURSDAY. STILL THOUGH WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT FORCING...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BREEZY/COOLER WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH ALONG WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS RESIDING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES ACROSS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING FOR A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS HETTINGER
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THERE COULD BE FOG ISSUES IN
THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE CLEARING SKY/GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING
PLACE.

HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S WEST AND 70S
ELSEWHERE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.