000
FXUS63 KBIS 120314
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1014 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

ONLY A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE LATE EVENING FORECAST. AREA OF LOW
VFR-MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE
SOURIS RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THIS IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW
WANING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. WITH THE LATE EVENING
UPDATED WE TRIMMED THE WESTERN EXTENT OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA...KEEPING IT CONFINED TO ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED...BUT DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
MID 20S. LOWERED MINS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST A COUPLE DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 727 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE TROUGH. ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. DID EXTEND ISOLATED
SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. TO THE EAST...VERY LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA WITHING THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION NOTED. WILL TREND LOWER ON POPS THIS EVENING OVER
THE NORTHEAST CWA. LATEST 22Z HRRR AND 23Z RAP INDICATE MORE
WIDESPREAD REFLECTIVITIES MID TO LATE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD SOME LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST.
AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED FROM AROUND WILLISTON
SOUTH THROUGH DICKINSON TO BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING. TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNING THE WEATHER IS TEMPS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
AND LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL EAST TONIGHT. OPERATIONALLY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ONGOING FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT AND ISOLATED
ICE JAMES. SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WPC QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AROUND 15:1 INDICATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR SO.

THE FAMILIAR RECENT TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WARMER SOUTHWEST WITH NO SNOW
COVER...COLDER NORTH AND EAST WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK. HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE WHICH IS DOING A BETTER JOB
HANDLING THE SNOW COVER VARIATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK DOWN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS SUPPORTS A GENERALLY DRY OVERALL PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWING THE WARMER EDGE OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST WITH THE PATTERN CHANGE TO MILDER WEATHER AND THE
LOSS OF SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. TO THE WEST OF THIS...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT
THIS TIME ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KMOT AND KBIS
AND THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THEM OUT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FARTHER EAST
SO WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND 6SM IN FOG. IF THIS
AREA SETS UP FARTHER WEST KBIS AND KMOT COULD BOTH SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTH
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT KJMS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST
OF KMOT AND KBIS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KISN AND KDIK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

MULTIPLE FLOOD HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BASIN. WET...DEEPLY FROZEN SOILS HAVE LEAD TO VERY HIGH RUNOFF
RATES OF THE MINIMAL SNOWPACK INTO THE AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS...RESULTING IN ICE BREAK UP AND JAMS. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HEART RIVER NEAR MANDAN THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. AS FLOWS INCREASE AND ICE FROM UPSTREAM MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA...THE RISK OF ICE JAMS NEAR MANDAN WILL INCREASE.
THE MISSOURI NEAR WILLISTON AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO RISE TO
NEAR 21.5 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHY OF THE 22 FT FLOOD STAGE.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS BROKEN ICE IN
THE SIDNEY AND FAIRVIEW STRETCHES OF THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER ARE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE WILLISTON AREA. WIDESPREAD RUNOFF...RIVER AND
STREAM RISES AND ICE JAM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
SOURIS AND JAMES BASINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS MILDER
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...RK
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
HYDROLOGY...AYD