Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 281658
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN BRING MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS ARE SEEING WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH THIS MORNING. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES THE MOUNTAIN WAVE WILL
DECREASE AROUND 18Z. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOW UP SOME WITH GUSTS
DROPPING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THESE WIND PRONE AREAS.

WATER VAPOR SHOWING MOISTURE AT THE UPPER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WEST OF COLORADO TO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL KEEP WAVE CLOUDS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. IF SKIES CONTINUE TO
REMAIN NEARLY OVERCAST ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE RGN THRU TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
WAVE CLOUDS. SIMULATED IMAGERY SUGGESTS HI LVL CLOUD COVER THRU
THE DAY SO ITS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
HIGHS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NR 70 AROUND
DENVER WITH 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF CLOUD COVER THINS OUT THEN
RECORD HIGH OF 72 AT DENVER COULD BE TIED. AREAS ALONG THE PLATTE
RIVER VALLEY FM FORT MORGAN TO STERLING MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. AS FOR WINDS MTN TOP
INVERSION IS RATHER WK THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT SO APPEARS THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL STAY ABV TIMBERLINE WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 60
TO 70 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY SUNDAY. UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS
PROGGED FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME FORM OF EASTERLY COMPONENT IS PROGGED
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO COME SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WAVE SET
UP LOOKS THE STRONGEST THAN. NO HIGHLIGHTS. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS
SPARSE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN INCREASE FOR THE
WESTERN CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A LOT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS
WITH THE UPSLOPE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS BEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...FAIRLY DEEP IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW A TAD OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHERN BORDER AREAS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...THAT`S IT. SATURDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 1-2 C COOLER
THAN THIS AFTERNOON`S HIGHS. ON SUNDAY...READINGS COOL DOWN SOME
10-20 C FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE LATER DAY`S...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER. THERE IS ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY...THEN SOME UPPER RIDGING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING WEAK UPPER RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...
THEY BOTH HAVE WEAK UPPER RIDGING. OVERALL THEY AGREE A BIT BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS. THE GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
SOME MINOR ALPINE POPS HERE AND THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 958 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGHS
CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWEST TO
WEST AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL RETURN SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER


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