Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 021602
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1002 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS
STILL APPEARS TO BE EAST OF A STERLING TO AKRON LINE. SOME OUTFLOW
FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS DID PUSH INTO WESTERN WELD COUNTY...BUT
MOST OF THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES
NOT...THEN THE STORMS COULD INITIATE FURTHER WEST THAN WE EXPECT.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PRIMARILY
ZONES 48>51. SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR A SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE
THIS AFTN/EVNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE
EXITING THE STATE BY DAWN. SOME CLEARING AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
COMPONENT IS NOTED BEHIND THESE SHOWERS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
CREATE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AFTER THAT BURNS OFF...LOOK FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY WITH A DRIER AND
EVEN WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE HARD TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS HOWEVER...AS LEE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL LIKELY HOLD UP NEAR A STERLING TO
AKRON LINE. AS A RESULT...COULD STILL SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS CAP WEAKENS. MIXED LAYER CAPES
NEAR 1500 J/KG EAST OF THE DRIER AIR SO A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH AGAIN THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.

WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND FURTHER WARM ADVECTION TODAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH WELL INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ON
THE PLAINS...WITH A FEW 90F READINGS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE THE FIRST OF A STRING OF
MOIST DAYS THAT IS GOING TO EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS GOING TO BE EVOLVING INTO A PERSISTENT AND
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT BUILDS OVER TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE TWO FEATURES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING
TO BE HELD IN PLACE BY A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA
AND A PERSISTENT MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS
THE LOW/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS GOING TO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING STORMS ANDRES AND BLANCA. IF THE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE MAKES IT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IT
WILL HELP ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

GOING BACK TO WEDNESDAY/S FORECAST...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. AT MID-
LEVELS...INITIALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERLAY THE LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. THIS WILL DE-STABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND SET UP WIND
SHEAR PROFILES THAT ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND SUPERCELLS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 2000
J/KG OF CAPE BY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NORTHEAST COLORADO UNDER THE ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST.

THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IS GOING TO DEPEND A LOT ON HOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PLAYS OUT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AS
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ALSO PERSISTS. SCATTERED POPS ARE THEREFORE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MOISTURE FIELD FORECASTS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE STATE AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A REGULAR OCCURRENCE ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE AN INCH AT TIMES. THROUGH IT
ALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING BACK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S ON THE PLAINS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS EVENING. EXPECT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST
AND POSSIBLE MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS OF 8-15
KNOTS. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

INCREASED SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND THE SOUTH
PLATTE IN THE GREELEY AREA TO CLIMB BACK JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...
THE CACHE LA POUDRE TODAY AND THEN THE SOUTH PLATTE BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE RENEWED FLOODING IN THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS.
OTHER RIVERS WILL BE HIGH AND COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR IMPACTS...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE OF THE
SNOWMELT...BUT ALSO AN INCREASED RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAIN LOOKS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IF THERE ARE STORMS THE
THREAT WOULD BE LOCALIZED.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH



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