Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 290927
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
327 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUTTING
COLORADO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF ROCKIES
TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEEING A SLIGHT
INDICATION OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WHILE LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
WHILE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES C WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...PUTTING 60S AND LOW 70S OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE HIGH
COUNTRY 40S AND 50S. NORTH PARK WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS LEFT
OVER SNOW REMAINS UP THERE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
SYSTEM.

A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN CO FROM
THE SHORTWAVE LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ESPECIALLY OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WARM
ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT AND AN INCREASE
IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BRING WARMER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND TONIGHTS WEAK FRONT AS
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW ALSO TURNS TO A WEAK UPSLOPE VIA SHALLOW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
HOWEVER...HIGHS SHOULD STILL MAKE IT TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE. THERE IS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WORKING ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP
FRIDAY A LITTLE COOLER AS WELL. THIS SURGE IS STRONGER AND
PREVENTS LEE TROUGHING FROM DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED SEVERAL DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH NORMALS ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE COOLER
AIRMASS IS DEEPER. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WE DO ANTICIPATE WARMING
WITH NO EFFECTS FROM FRONT AND STRONGER WARM ADVECTION UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

THE WARMER AIRMASS SHOULD FINALLY SPILL ONTO THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD
STILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF
UPPER TROUGH.

THERE IS STILL GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE WEEKEND WEATHER...ALTHOUGH
THERE WAS SOME SLOWING WITH REGARD TO SUNDAYS COLD FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD STILL ENTER THE PICTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS
BY LATE SATURDAY AS MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
AXIS. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...BUT
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME ENERGY HOLDING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN MONDAY. IT COULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BUT
AT THIS TIME ANY PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING LIGHT. GOING LOW CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ARE GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DRAINAGE WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
ANTICYCLONE AND PERHAPS TURN WINDS MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AT
KAPA. COLD FRONT EXPECTED THIS EVENING IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
THE WINDS MUCH AT THE AREA AIRPORTS...SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER THE PLAINS. THEREFORE EXPECT A RETURN TO DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

AS A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA TODAY...
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SPEEDS OVER
THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I70 IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH PARK
BECOMES A CONCERN AS HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO
10%. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BLOW OVER THE MOSQUITO
RANGE AND DOWN INTO THE PARK WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA...ZONE 214...FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY STAY GUSTY AFTER SUNSET...BUT HUMIDITY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ038-042-043-
045.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KRIEDERMAN



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