Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 300319
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK. SHOWERS ENDED A LITTLE EARLY SO DROPPED THEM
AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT BASIN REMAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY WITH THE NORTHEAST PUSH
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMING
ALOFT IS LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF THE PLAINS CAPPED. SCATTERED CONVECTION
MOVING SOUTH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...DIMINISHING AS THE SUN GOES DOWN.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING DOWN OVER THE EASTERN CO
PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME DOWNSLOPING
AND WARMING WINDS OVERNIGHT FOR WARMER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
EXTEND EAST TUESDAY FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN AGAIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WITH A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STORM
MOVEMENT...WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ALONG
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO NE COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION THAT WILL
INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM EARLY IN THE WEEK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH DECENT SHEAR. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DCAPES SO HIGH WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BEING ANOTHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY. THERE IS DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW BRINGING SHEAR IN THE 40-50 RANGE
OVER NE PLAINS COUNTIES. CAPE VALUES CURRENTLY ARE IN THE
1100-1300 J/KG RANGE AND COMBINED WITH SHEAR COULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS FOR THE
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 90S. VARYING MODELS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COULD BRING SOME CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BUT DETAILS STILL MUDDY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE
IN STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH IN ISOLATED SPOTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN


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