Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 071542
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
942 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CLEARING OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HRRR STILL HINTING AT A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO
THE SW OF DENVER WHICH COULD HELP TO SPIN OFF A FEW STORMS AROUND
NOON TO 1 PM. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT WOULD HINDER FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT WITH PWS STILL HOVERING AROUND 1.15 INCHES
COULD DROP UP TO AN INCH IN 1 HOUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SMOKE
FROM CANADA THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS
DISSIPATED TO AN EXTENT BUT LOW LEVEL HAZE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS VS CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM
DENVER EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPSLOPE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING THEN BEGIN TO LIFT. SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EARLY MORNING...ONLY TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPING AND
SPREADING TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE SPONSORED BY A BIT
OF LIFT SUPPLIED BY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT
WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWLY...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN...ALSO WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE A
DENVER CYCLONE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT TODAY FOR ANY POSSIBILITY
OF A LANDSPOUT TORNADO. OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LOW TODAY.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...BUT ALSO SPREAD
EAST TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP A
SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL NON-DIURNAL PRECIPITATION THREAT OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE RATHER LOW BUT HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
THE CONVECTION. AS THE WEEK WEARS ON THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO COLORADO BRING MONSOON-
LIKE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO COLORADO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE
DIURNAL PATTERN OF CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
THE BEST AREAS TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 SUCH AS
PARK COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 921 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VIS WILL HOVER AROUND 3-5 SM WITH HAZE
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE SW OF DENVER WITH A POSSIBLE CYCLONE BUT
WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AIRPORT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND 21 TO 22Z WITH MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT. WINDS AT THE AIRPORT
WILL BE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...RTG
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...BOWEN


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