


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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683 FXUS65 KBOU 152150 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 350 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered storms expected tonight but severe threat is diminishing behind the cold front. - Conditional severe storm threat across the I-25 corridor and plains on Wednesday, but low confidence at this time. - Active pattern continues into the weekend, with scattered afternoon showers and storms each day. Best chance of rain across the Front Range/Foothills and South Park most afternoons. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 350 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Current satellite and radar imagery show a few different things going on over our area. First, the upper level shortwave is trekking over southern Wyoming, which has generated some mountain convection over the Cheyenne Ridge and northern Front Range mountains. However, as these showers/storms have spilled onto the northern plains, they have quickly dissipated. This is due to the cold front arriving a few hours early, bringing in a more stable environment. In addition, mountain convection has initiated over the southern Front Range mountains, producing brief gusty winds at the surface. Modeled Skew-T soundings have steep lapse rates of ~9 C/Km and high LCLs over the higher elevation, so main threat will continue to be gusty winds up to 40 mph this afternoon. With the early arrival of the cold front, the overall severe weather threat has decreased for the rest of the afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis page shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE over the northern/northeastern plains, with instability increasing in the next few hours. However, with decent CIN settled over the area and without the cold front to provide enhanced lift, storms that do generate over the northeastern plains are expected to be sub- severe at best, with the possibility of small hail and gusty winds. Wednesday looks to be more interesting severe weather wise as another shortwave trough crosses the region- although it will be conditional on how the morning evolves. With increased moisture advection, a thick stratus deck is expected by Wednesday morning. Deterministic models have dew points in the high 50s to low 60s, so there is a chance for localized foggy conditions, especially along the foothills. Guidance is in general consensus of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along with 40-45 kts. of effective bulk shear, which would favor supercell and multicell development with all threats possible. However, the low clouds in the morning could inhibit surface heating/instability, thus hindering the severe weather threat. Another factor to keep in mind is the smoke from the fires out in the west. Even if clouds clear out in the morning, smoke in the atmosphere could keep the air slightly cooler than their convective temperatures. Lastly, it is important to note that if storms are able to develop, there will be localized heavy rain, which could bring a threat of flooding. Scattered light showers are expected Thursday, with temperatures hovering around the mid 80s for most of the plains. With overall lack of shear and instability, the severe weather threat is low. By Friday, an upper level ridge will amplify over the southern United States, bringing warmer and drier air back into our area. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of multiple shortwaves traversing the area over the weekend, with increased chances of scattered afternoon showers and storms in the afternoon hours. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 350 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 There will be scattered showers through 02z, but little impact is expected on the Denver area terminals. There is a 20% chance of variable winds gusting to 30 knots from a shower. More likely, we`ll just have a steady 10 to 20 knot northeast wind. MVFR ceilings with areas of IFR are likely late tonight into Wednesday morning, between 08z and 16z. MVFR ceilings may continue later than that, but clearing is likely by 20z. Thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday afternoon, and a few severe storms are possible. There is a 70% chance of some thunderstorm impacts, most likely after 21z. The main threats are variable wind up to 40 knots, but gusts to 50 knots, large hail, and IFR conditions in heavy rain are possible (10% chance). && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ideker AVIATION...Hiris